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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 271135
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
735 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and periods of showers are expected through
Thursday as a weak cold front slowly moves across the region. Drier
conditions and seasonal temperatures follow for Friday into early
next week, with rising chances for rain and snow Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 AM EDT Wednesday...Only minor updates needed to the
forecast for this early morning update. Rains showers have begun
to blossom across the Champlain Valley and will continue to do
so over the next few hours as expected.

Previous Discussion...No significant changes made to the
forecast for the next 36 hours with the main feature of interest
being a weak cold front that will very slowly work its way from
west to east across the forecast region through Thursday with
several waves of precipitation expected. The first wave, and
really the only one expected to affect the Adirondacks and St.
Lawrence Valley is currently shifting from southwest to
northeast across northern New York early this morning, and will
move north of the Canadian border around sunrise. Thereafter,
very little if any precipitation is expected west of the
Champlain Valley for the remainder of the period. Meanwhile to
the east, a second wave of rain will develop across central PA
this morning and move northward into the Champlain Valley around
15Z along with southerly breezes up to 25 mph. This band then
slowly moves east through Vermont into the afternoon, and tapers
off towards the evening, producing rainfall amounts generally a
tenth to quarter inch. Heading into the overnight showers once
again decrease in coverage for a short period, before a final
wave of rain comes early Thursday morning through the early
afternoon, mainly affecting Rutland County and eastern Vermont
with the remainder of the region remaining relatively dry.

Despite more cloud cover, temperatures today will be similar to
yesterday, with mean 925mb temps of +7-8C supporting highs in the
mid 40s to around 50 east of the Greens, and mid 50s to low 60s from
the Champlain Valley through northern New York. Another mild night
in the mid 30s to low 40s follows for tonight under thick cloud
cover, with highs 5-10 degrees cooler on Thursday in the mid/upper
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Thursday night and Friday will feature
quieter weather as slow moving cold front finally pushes east of our
forecast area. Clouds will linger across the area as an upper trough
moves overhead, but precipitation should stay east of Vermont. We
will also have gusty conditions as slow moving front to our east
causes tightened pressure gradient over our area, winds will be
gusty out of the northwest. Temperatures will be close to seasonal
normals, lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s and highs in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 356 AM EDT Wednesday...Quiet weather will continue from Friday
night through about Tuesday. Temperatures will be close to or just a
bit warmer than seasonal normals. Upper level ridge will build over
our area, and shortwave trough crosses the area Sunday bringing just
a slight chance for some light showers. Next real chance for
precipitation will come Tuesday night into Wednesday with a low
pressure system and associated fronts crossing the area. Still a lot
of uncertainty this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 12Z Thursday...A mix of VFR and MVFR across the region
this morning will trend towards mainly VFR this afternoon and
into the evening before lowering again to MVFR. The exception
will be KRUT where MVFR will largely prevail today and lower to
IFR towards dawn tomorrow. In addition, showers will blossom
across Vermont terminals this morning and continue through
about 22Z with vsby reduced to 4-6SM, and MVFR/IFR fog is
possible at all VT terminals after 00Z. S. Otherwise, surface
winds will generally be less than 10kts from the SSE except
locally NE at KMSS, with brief gusts up to 18kt at KBTV this
morning.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Lahiff


 
 
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