000
FXUS61 KBTV 170804
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
404 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry and mild day is anticipated today, before light rain
showers and cooler temperatures arrive for tonight into
Thursday. An unsettled and cool pattern will continue into the
upcoming weekend with temperatures mostly in the 50s for highs
and 30s for lows.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...Water vapor and RAP upper air
analysis indicates a highly amplified mid/upper lvl pattern
prevails acrs the northern tier conus. Mid/upper lvl trof is
located over eastern Canada, while weak s/w ridge is overhead,
followed by deep closed cyclonic circulation approaching the
western Great Lakes. This complex upper lvl pattern wl provide
challenges to when precip arrives and areal coverage of precip,
especially tonight into Thurs. Some changes have been observed
in the latest data with most guidance more aggressive with
advecting deeper moisture into our cwa associated with a
stronger mid/upper lvl trof. This results in greater coverage of
light precip chances tonight into Thurs, however timing of when
column saturation wl occur given deep dry layer overhead is
challenging. Have mid/upper lvl clouds advecting into the region
after 18z from west to east and based on very dry air around
850mb, feel some lower dwpts are likely today, especially VT
areas. Have nudged NBM dwpts 50% toward the 10 percentile values
to highlight potential for drier air to mix toward the sfc,
especially central/eastern sections. Fcst area should remain dry
today with temps very similar to yesterday, mid 50s to near 60F.
Tonight, NAM/HRRR/RAP and GFS shows weakening ribbon of precip
advecting acrs northern NY and falling apart in the CPV. Have
increased pops to likely for northern NY and chc for the CPV
overnight. QPF values should be light and generally btwn 0.05
and 0.15 overnight. Additional s/w energy ejects from mid/upper
lvl trof acrs the midwest on Thurs with more light showers
likely for northern NY into VT. Once again areal coverage is
challenging, as some guidance, especially the ECMWF is mostly
dry for VT thru 00z Friday, holding the ridge firm. Based on
consensus and latest trends have bumped pops by 10 to 20% acrs
the board, with greatest potential for precip over northern NY
into parts of central VT. Thursday should not be a complete
washout, but it probably won`t be dry either. Also, given the
thicker clouds and light precip, have lowered highs back into
the upper 30s mtns to upper 40s to mid 50s warmer valleys.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...A decaying occluded front will move
through the region Thursday night, bringing chances for widespread
precipitation. Precipitation amounts with this system will be light,
generally less than 0.25 of an inch. There is a little bit of
uncertainty regarding the frontal as it moves through, as some
guidance shows the system completely falling apart as it moves
eastward while others support it remaining intact as it crosses
through. Regardless, light precipitation can be expect overnight
Thursday into Friday morning, with the greatest confidence across
northern New York. Overnight lows on Thursday will be fairly mild
given abundant cloud cover, with temperatures dropping into the
upper 30s to mid 40s. Behind the front, much of Friday will be dry,
albeit cloudy. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s and low 60s
during the day, aided by southerly flow, before the next frontal
boundary crosses the region.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Wednesday...Somewhat unsettled weather will continue
heading into the weekend as as a cold front pushes eastward across
the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing additional chances
for precipitation. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light given
a lack of deep moisture. Behind the frontal boundary, brisk winds
and cooler temperatures are in store for Saturday, with wind gusts
between 20- 35 mph expected. Unsettled weather and additional chances
for precipitation will continue into the weekend as the region
remains under the influence of an upper level trough, although
showers will continue to be light.
As we head into the end of the weekend and early next week, high
pressure looks to build into the region, bringing another period of
mostly dry weather and some sun. Temperatures will be fairly
seasonable, with daytime highs warming into the 50s to low 60s and
overnight lows dropping into the 30s to low 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail at all sites for
the next 12 to 24 hours with just some high clouds between 15000
and 20000 feet at times. Winds remain from the north/northeast
today with localized gusts up to 20 knots possible at mss.
Winds become light and trrn driven toward sunset.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: VFR. Scattered SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
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