000
FXUS61 KBTV 180758
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
358 AM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will produce occasional showers across
the North Country today, along with cool temperatures. Highs
will range from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region. More
scattered showers are anticipated for Friday and again on
Saturday, before drier air returns for Sunday into early next
week, along with near normal temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Thursday...Its been a challenge for precip to
reach our fa this morning, as radar trends show bands of light
rain rotating toward our region, but dissipating or falling
apart. Finally a few NY State Meso sites have measured a few
hundredths, as saturation of the llvls continues to occur. Water
vapor shows mid/upper lvl trof axis acrs western NY, along with
sharp sfc convergence line. As this boundary and dynamics aloft
arrive, along with slightly better moisture profiles, expect
areal coverage of showers to increase this morning and spread
into the CPV by noon and continue to push northeast during the
aftn hours. Have continued the trend of increasing pops with
values near 100% along and west of the CPV and mostly chc/likely
for central/northern VT this aftn. QPF amounts are challenging
with bands of precip and lingering dry air from leftover ridge,
but have amounts mostly in the 0.10 to 0.30 range, with less
over the NEK. As noted by previous fcster 925mb winds of 30 to
40 knots this morning will produce localized gusts 25 to 35
mph along favorable downslope areas of the northern Dacks and
western slopes of the Greens. Have already seen values near 30
mph this morning at Rutland. As precip arrives, bl should
stabilize and winds become lighter by mid/late morning. Temps
are challenging as se downslope has resulted in some warming
with readings in the mid/upper 40s, while others places are in
the mid 30s. Thinking mostly mid 40s to mid 50s with coolest
values from northern Dacks into central/southern VT.
Tonight is quiet with any lingering precip shifting east of our
cwa. Lows range from the mid 30s to lower/mid 40s. Friday, low
level southerly jet increases ahead of next boundary, with gusts
25 to 35 mph possible, especially CPV and parts of northern
NY/VT. If mixing is slightly better than anticipated, a few
gusts up to 40 mph wl be possible associated with core of 925mb
winds of 40 to 50 knots developing btwn 18z-00z. Given the
southwest orientation of the 850mb wind fields, expect some
downslope shadowing of precip on Fri aftn acrs the CPV. Have chc
to low likely pops expanding from west to east ahead of next
boundary and associated moisture axis and s/w energy. Temps warm
into the mid 50s to lower 60s on Friday as warmer 925mb temps
surge northward on breezy southerly winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Thursday...Somewhat unsettled weather will continue
heading into the weekend as as a cold front pushes eastward across
the region Friday night into Saturday, bringing additional chances
for precipitation. Precipitation amounts will be fairly light given
a lack of deep moisture. Behind the frontal boundary, brisk winds
and cooler temperatures are in store for Saturday, with wind gusts
generally between 20 to 30 mph. Another shortwave will swing through
during the day on Saturday, bringing additional chances for showers,
with the greatest chances near the international border. The lack of
available moisture will limit the potential for measurable
precipitation with this system, especially with some drier air at
the surface to overcome. Daytime highs will be on the cool, with
temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 343 AM EDT Thursday...Several shortwave disturbances look to
traverse across the region through the weekend as we head into the
new work week. These disturbances look to be lacking moisture, which
will limit any additional chances for measurable precipitation.
Early next week, weak ridging looks to build into the region,
bringing another period of mostly dry weather and some sun.
Temperatures will be seasonably cool, with daytime highs warming
into the 50s to low 60s and overnight lows dropping into the 30s to
low 40s. By mid-week another trough looks to bring more widespread
precipitation to the region, with greater moisture available.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Radar is showing a band of light rain
showers south of a MSS to SLK to RUT line with no impacts to vis
or cigs. Have continued with VFR conditions prevailing at all
sites thru 12z Thursday, before a slow trend toward MVFR cigs
occurs at SLK/MSS. In addition, as better moisture and forcing
arrives, we could see localized MVFR vis in the heavier showers
toward 18z. These showers should spread into the CPV taf sites
by 18z and thru our region by 00z Friday. Winds are mostly light
and variable, but some localized channeled flow may produce
gusts 15 to 20 knots at RUT/MSS and PBG overnight into Thursday.
Most locations wl experience winds in the 5 to 15 knot range on
Thurs with some localized gusts 20 to 25 knot.
Outlook...
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber
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