483
FXUS61 KBTV 091652
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1252 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 1149 AM EDT Tuesday...
No significant changes have been made to the forecast.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1145 AM EDT Tuesday...
1. Chances for scattered showers start early Wednesday and
persist through Friday.
2. Building heat and humidity through Friday.
3. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms return over the
weekend with temperatures cooling towards normal by early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 1145 AM EDT Tuesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface and upper level ridges will exit our
region later today, after a sunny and dry day. Some fog will be
possible once again overnight, though not too extensive since
we`re a few days removed from rainfall. Our weather pattern will
become more unsettled for the Wed through Fri timeframe as some
upper level shortwave energy will pass overhead and bring
chances for showers. Meanwhile we will have warming at the
surface and temperatures surging to the upper 80s and lower 90s.
This will lead to some surface based instability and some
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon. Best forcing will
be on Friday as a surface front will also cross our region
though the surface low will remain well north of our forecast
area. As previous forecaster mentioned, not expecting a wash out
but several chances for showers which should be tied to
shortwaves passing through progressive upper level flow. At this
time not expecting strong or severe storms.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will trend warmer the second half
of the work week with increasing humidity Thursday and Friday.
Given the overall unsettled weather pattern with scattered
showers and clouds moving through, have continued to hedge
forecast temps towards MOS guidance, slightly lower than the
NBM. Friday continues to look like the warmest day, when
temperatures will reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s. At the
same time, dewpoints will tick upwards into the mid to upper 60s
as Gulf moisture wraps up and around high pressure over the
western Atlantic. As a result, expect the airmass to feel
noticeably more muggy late week. Heat indices will reach into
the low to mid 90s on Friday in the Champlain Valley, Saint
Lawrence Valley, and Connecticut River Valley. In addition to
the increasing humidity and warmer daytime temperatures,
overnight lows will also be on the warmer side, falling only to
the low to upper 60s. This will limit overnight recoveries, and
increase heat risk to any vulnerable populations.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Mean longwave troughing is favored to shift
towards the Northeast and eastern Canada over the weekend into
early next week. This pattern will promote periods of showers
and frontal passages. One such front is currently projected to
move through Friday night into early Saturday. Differing
guidance are a little split on the timing, but most models have
the expectation of a period of height falls supporting increased
instability and potential for a few thunderstorms. This doesn`t
look to be a complete washout for the weekend however. The
front will also bring cooler surface temperatures with highs
likely trending back towards the mid/upper 70s by early next
week. The region is expected to remain under the base of a broad
longwave trough into early next week with continued shower
chances. With flow aloft somewhat zonal, faster flow aloft will
push a series of weaker variety troughs through. Periodic
breezes in excess of 20 mph are possible in this flow pattern
especially in northern New York where westerly flow stacks along
the northern slopes of the Adirondacks down to the Highway 11
corridor.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...Morning fog is rapidly lifting and
scattering with MPV possibly holding onto a little mist until
13Z before conditions become VFR for all terminals. Elsewhere,
conditions will remain VFR with winds remaining generally light.
Lake breezes will set up today given the sharp temperature rise
expected with a westerly component in the afternoon for BTV and
southeasterly at PBG. Tonight, high clouds move in after 06Z in
northern New York with some showers along a warm front possible
at MSS.
Outlook...
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Chance TSRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:
June 12:
KMPV: 88/2017
KMSS: 89/2005
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
June 12:
KBTV: 71/2017
KPBG: 67/2017
KSLK: 62/1996
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
WHAT HAS CHANGED...Neiles
DISCUSSION...Neiles/Boyd
AVIATION...Boyd
CLIMATE...NWS BTV
|
