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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 260546
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, moist southeast flow will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday,
causing a sharp temperature gradient across the region. Highs
east of the Greens will be in the 30s and 40s while highs in
northwestern areas will reach close to 60. Some freezing drizzle
is possible east of the Greens Tuesday night. There is the
potential for accumulating snow in Vermont later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 146 AM EDT Tuesday...Quiet weather continues for the
remainder of the overnight hours with high clouds increasing
from the west while low clouds will increase from the southeast.
Temps overnight have not cooled to previously forecast values
despite light winds and clear skies so have adjusted
accordingly. Otherwise no major changes.

Cool, moist southeast flow intensifies a bit through the day
today and into tonight, causing a large temperature gradient
across the area. It will cause clouds to overspread areas east
of the Greens from southeast to northeast during the day. Highs
should range from the upper 30s in parts of southeast Vermont to
around 60 in the St. Lawrence Valley where the low clouds
should not reach. Temperatures will depend significantly on how
quickly the stratus deck moves and how far northwest it makes
it. A faster progression would cause more areas to see high
temperatures in the 40s while a slower progression would allow
more areas to see high temperatures in the 50s. The layer of
moisture deepens Tuesday night and it should cause some patchy
drizzle to occur across Vermont, particularly east of the
Greens. Temperatures should fall to around freezing in the
higher elevations east of the Greens so some freezing drizzle is
possible. Any accretion would be relatively light but it could
be enough to slicken roadways and elevated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...A relatively dry DGZ coupled with
sufficient low level moisture could lead to a few additional hours
of freezing drizzle along the spine of the Green Mountains and
possibly east of the Green Mountains Wednesday morning. Increasing
deep layer moisture and warming temperatures will likely put an end
to any freezing rain/drizzle potential by 10 AM Wednesday with
impacts from freezing rain/drizzle being mitigated by the warming
temperatures. Scattered to possibly numerous rain showers are
expected much of the day on Wednesday with a series of low amplitude
upper level disturbances tracking ahead of a frontal boundary.
Rainfall amounts will generally be a quarter of an inch or less but
warming temperatures and rainfall should accelerate snow melt across
the region. We could see some sharp river rises through Wednesday
but the modest rainfall amounts should keep rivers below bankful but
will continue to be watched in coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...Following the rain showers on Wednesday, we
could see a more potent storm system move into the area on Thursday.
The jury is still out as run-to-run consistency of deterministic and
global ensemble guidance is all over the place. However, the one
noticeable trend in the 12Z guidance today and 00Z guidance last
night is the prospect of a negatively tilted upper level trough over
the Great Lakes Region. With the possibility of a coastal low
forming near the coastal Carolina and tracking up the east coast,
the upper low could have the potential to drive this system westward
toward Vermont later in the day Thursday into Friday. This could
yield snow, possibly over 6 inches or so, across eastern Vermont
with a sharp east to west gradient. At the same time, this system
could stay out to sea and have little to no impact in our weather.
The 12Z guidance has almost completely shifted westward which is
significant but we will need to see more before we are ready to jump
on board with another late march snow system. Something to watch for
sure!

Weather through the weekended looks to remain unsettled as the
longwave pattern begins to switch from being amplified to more
zonal. This could usher in a few disturbances with light rain/snow
showers possible depending on the time of day but likely nothing
significant. We should see more seasonal temperatures this upcoming
weekend but highs will generally be in the 40s with lows in the 20s
and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will persist through the
next 12 hours with high clouds increasing from the west and low
clouds from the southeast. After 18Z, MVFR will work
northwestward from southeastern VT reaching all terminals except
KMSS by 20-22Z, with further lowering to IFR at KRUT/KMPV by
02Z, and KMSS to MVFR by 02Z as well. Late in the period areas
of DZ are possible at KRUT/KMPV.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Lahiff/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Lahiff


 
 
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