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  Friday March 29, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 241916
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
316 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a cold night, temperatures will trend warmer becoming
above seasonal averages by Tuesday. Warming trends will be
slower for eastern Vermont and could have implications for
type of precipitation as widespread light rain, drizzle, and
fog chances increase Tuesday night through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Dry, cold conditions are anticipated
tonight with a good set up for radiational cooling. Light winds,
clear skies, and a new snow pack will promote strong cooling for
valley locations with lows dipping into the negative to positive
single digits for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont and
upper single digits to low teens elsewhere. Temperatures trend
warmer Monday, back towards seasonal averages as flow turns
southeasterly with ample clear skies. We should see melting
increase with increasing, but non-concerning, rises for rivers
through early Monday night before temperatures dip back below
freezing by Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Southeasterly flow continues on
Tuesday as high pressure shifts to our east, helping lead to a
strong temperature gradient across the region. The flow should
keep high temperatures east of the Greens in the 40s or upper
30s as cooler moist air from the Atlantic reaches those areas.
Low clouds will likely spread into those areas during the day.
Temperatures will be much warmer farther northwest, especially
across the St. Lawrence Valley, where highs will make a run at
60. Temperatures will fall back well into the 30s east of the
Greens Tuesday night, with some of the colder hollows possibly
falling below freezing, especially in areas that hold onto the
deep snowpack. The continued advection of moisture into the
region overnight looks to saturate a deep enough layer that some
drizzle may occur. This brings the chance of freezing drizzle
in some areas east of the Greens. A few rain showers will also
attempt to make their way into the region from the west, but dry
mid and upper- levels should help keep them light. Snow levels
will be well above the mountain tops so these showers will be
rain for everyone.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Sunday...Some scattered rain showers are possible on
Wednesday as a weakening occluded front pushes across the region,
but precipitation totals will be quite light. Therefore, there
should be no flooding threat despite the melting snowpack.
Temperatures will be quite mild, but how high they get will depend
on how much mixing occurs and how much of the low cloud deck can be
eroded. 925 mb temperatures should be between 7 and 11 degrees
celsius so full mixing would lead to highs in the low 60s. However,
that is only expected in the St. Lawrence Valley so highs elsewhere
are expected to be in the 50s. A coastal low looks to form later in
the week and it will attempt to move north into our region and bring
some steadier precipitation. However, there is wide model spread on
its track so kept any PoPs chance or less during this time period.
While most guidance keeps the rain to our east, a small but
insignificant number of GFS and Euro ensemble members bring some of
it into the region. Eastern areas would be the most favored.
Temperatures looks to gradually cool later in the week, trending
back to around seasonable normals for the time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Lingering stratocumulus in the Adirondacks
has been slow to scatter, but is definitely on its way out
quickly, and should be gone by the initial hour of the forecast
period. Otherwise, light northerlies will go calm overnight
before switching south/southeasterly by 14Z Monday. VFR
conditions will prevail with dry air across the region.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Boyd


 
 
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