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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 280243
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1043 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered rain showers will continue over mainly eastern areas
through Thursday as a weak cold front slowly crosses the region. Low
pressure moving northward well off the East Coast will bring the
chance for some rain and snow across far eastern Vermont Thursday
night and Friday, but the main trend for the end of the week will be
near normal temperatures and drier weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

As of 1040 PM EDT Wednesday...

We issued a SPS for locally dense fog across our VT zones
through 7 AM EDT. Webcams show some dense fog along and east of
the Greens, especially locations that still have a snowpack.
The VTrans webcam over Brookfield show some very dense fog.
Rutland and Springfield are currently reporting quarter mile
visibility. Please exercise caution if traveling overnight
tonight. Use low beam headlights and leave plenty of stopping
distance between vehicles. Otherwise, forecast remains in good
shape.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

A cold front will continue to make slow eastward progress
across our region tonight and tomorrow. Today`s shower activity
will exit to the east later this evening as a weak wave of low
pressure lifts northeast, with a brief break from the
precipitation overnight. However, ample low level moisture will
linger, and given light winds, patchy fog will develop,
especially in areas along/east of the Greens. Our next round of
precipitation will then spread northward early Thursday morning,
focusing mainly over eastern and south-central VT as best
moisture pools ahead of the front. Temperatures will drop into
the upper 30s/low 40s overnight, so while some snow may mix in
at summit levels, precipitation is expected to start out as
rain. Showers will persist through about mid afternoon Thursday,
but should start to shift eastward thereafter as the front does
likewise. Given abundant cloud cover, highs tomorrow will be in
the 40s areawide. The front will move to our east Thursday
night while developing low pressure lifts northward well off the
East Coast. This may allow precipitation to linger across far
eastern Vermont through the overnight hours. Colder air will
follow the frontal passage as winds turn to the northwest, so
although temperatures will remain above normal (upper 20s to mid
30s), rain will likely transition over to snow. Light
accumulations will be possible, limited to mainly the far
Northeast Kingdom.

The overall trend with this model suite has been a slight westward
shift in the rain axis through the next 36 hours. This has resulted
in increase in expected rainfall totals, which now range from around
a tenth of an inch in much of northern NY to nearly three-quarters
of an inch in southeastern VT. While temperatures will remain above
freezing much of that time, expect snowmelt will be relatively
limited as the snowpack ripens, especially in those areas that saw
the greatest amounts in our recent snow event. Latest guidance shows
snowmelt will generally be an inch or less through this period. This
combined with rainfall will result in rises along area waterways,
especially smaller, flashier creeks and streams. While the latest
forecasts from the NERFC keep mainstem rivers below flood stage,
some southern rivers such as Otter Creek may approach bankfull.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...An upper level trough will build into
the region on Friday. A surface low will develop on a shortwave that
pivots around it but right now it looks like the low should pass by
far enough to the east to keep any significant precipitation out of
the region. However, about 1/4 of the Euro and GFS ensembles do
bring the precipitation west enough to give parts of eastern Vermont
a few inches of snow. Currently put chance PoPs in those areas to
reflect this uncertainty. Regardless of the exact low track, the
storm system will help tighten the pressure gradient and cause some
gusty northwest winds during the day on Friday. There is not
plentiful low- level moisture and the snow growth zone should remain
unsaturated so upslope snow showers are not expected. However, it
should still be mostly cloudy. Temperatures during this period will
be around normal as highs on Friday will be in the upper 30s and 40s
and lows Friday night will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. If the
low does track farther west and bring more precipitation to the
region, highs will be a few degrees lower than currently
forecasting.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 324 PM EDT Wednesday...The upper level trough will remain over
the North Country for the weekend so the roughly seasonable weather
should continue. A center of a weak surface low looks to pass by to
the south of the region on Sunday but it should be able to bring a
few light rain and snow showers to the North Country. Any
accumulations would be very minor and with temperatures above
freezing during the day, any snow would likely struggle to
accumulate at all. Ridging will briefly build in for the start of
the week so Monday should be mostly dry. However, temperatures look
to remain close to normal. A more significant storm system moves
into the North Country for mid-week. There is still too much
uncertainty this far out to provide many details. Ensembles are
split on precipitation type and timing but there is a decent
consensus that there will be a more significant amount of
precipitation with this storm.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Fog and low stratus will be the main
concern of the night in terms of aviation. Rain showers continue
to track across Vermont, but visibilities in these showers
remain high, 8-10 miles. Meanwhile, fog/low stratus has arrived
in Rutland, seen on webcams and reported at the airport.
Visibilities have been fluctuating 1/2 to 2 miles. Ceilings have
fallen over the past couple of hours to variable 800-1400
feet above ground level. IFR and LIFR conditions like these are
expected to continue at RUT for the remainder of the night,
though some bouncing and fluctuation is possible. Steady MVFR is
not expected to return until tomorrow/Thursday during the
daytime. IFR-LIFR foggy/low stratus conditions are also
expected at MPV, where ceilings are already lowering to under
1000 feet in rain showers. Have tempo groups to describe the
fluctuations that are expected throughout the night at MPV. All
other sites are anticipated to have conditions down to MVFR,
though spotty IFR occurrences are not out of the question.
Generally, VT sites are most likely to experience fog and low
stratus, while NY should stay in better conditions, MVFR to VFR.
However, this is the potential for SLK to fog up quickly if
clear skies are achieved with plenty of moisture available.
Winds will generally be light and variable with no LLWS
concerns.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SN.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Chai/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Storm


 
 
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