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Current conditions from King Hill
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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 251944
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
344 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool, moist southeast flow will prevail Tuesday and Wednesday,
causing a sharp temperature gradieent across the region. Highs
east of the Greens will be in the 30s and 40s while highs in
northwestern areas will reach close to 60. Some freezing
drizzle is possible east of teh Greens Tuesday night. There is
the potential for accumulating snow in Vermont later in the
week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...It is currently a bluebird day and the
clear skies will continue into tonight. Some high clouds from an
offshore low will continue to move across eastern Vermont but they
will move out to the east as the night progresses. Light
southeasterly flow will begin to develop overnight and keep
temperatures higher than last night, with forecast lows generally in
the teens and 20s. Areas east of the Greens may be able to decouple
well and with a deep snowpack, some places may locally fall into the
single digits. The cool, moist southeast flow intensifies a bit
through the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday night, causing a large
temperature gradient across the area. It will cause clouds to
overspread areas east of the Greens from southeast to northeast
during the day. Highs should range from the upper 30s in parts of
southeast Vermont to around 60 in the St. Lawrence Valley where the
low clouds should not reach. Temperatures will depend significantly
on how quickly the stratus deck moves and how far northwest it makes
it. A faster progression would cause more areas to see high
temperatures in the 40s while a slower progression would allow more
areas to see high temperatures in the 50s. The layer of moisture
deepens Tuesday night and it should cause some patchy drizzle to
occur across Vermont, particularly east of the Greens. Temperatures
should fall to around freezing in the higher elevations east of the
Greens so some freezing drizzle is possible. Any accretion would be
relatively light but it could be enough to slicken roadways and
elevated surfaces.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...A relatively dry DGZ coupled with
sufficient low level moisture could lead to a few additional hours
of freezing drizzle along the spine of the Green Mountains and
possibly east of the Green Mountains Wednesday morning. Increasing
deep layer moisture and warming temperatures will likely put an end
to any freezing rain/drizzle potential by 10 AM Wednesday with
impacts from freezing rain/drizzle being mitigated by the warming
temperatures. Scattered to possibly numerous rain showers are
expected much of the day on Wednesday with a series of low amplitude
upper level disturbances tracking ahead of a frontal boundary.
Rainfall amounts will generally be a quarter of an inch or less but
warming temperatures and rainfall should accelerate snow melt across
the region. We could see some sharp river rises through Wednesday
but the modest rainfall amounts should keep rivers below bankful but
will continue to be watched in coming days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 PM EDT Monday...Following the rain showers on Wednesday, we
could see a more potent storm system move into the area on Thursday.
The jury is still out as run-to-run consistency of deterministic and
global ensemble guidance is all over the place. However, the one
noticeable trend in the 12Z guidance today and 00Z guidance last
night is the prospect of a negatively tilted upper level trough over
the Great Lakes Region. With the possibility of a coastal low
forming near the coastal Carolina and tracking up the east coast,
the upper low could have the potential to drive this system westward
toward Vermont later in the day Thursday into Friday. This could
yield snow, possibly over 6 inches or so, across eastern Vermont
with a sharp east to west gradient. At the same time, this system
could stay out to sea and have little to no impact in our weather.
The 12Z guidance has almost completely shifted westward which is
significant but we will need to see more before we are ready to jump
on board with another late march snow system. Something to watch for
sure!

Weather through the weekended looks to remain unsettled as the
longwave pattern begins to switch from being amplified to more
zonal. This could usher in a few disturbances with light rain/snow
showers possible depending on the time of day but likely nothing
significant. We should see more seasonal temperatures this upcoming
weekend but highs will generally be in the 40s with lows in the 20s
and 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Tuesday... VFR conditions will persist this afternoon
throughout the entire TAF period. A lower cloud deck will move into
the region from the southeast during the day on Tuesday and it
should reach MPV by Tuesday afternoon. This deck will likely cause
ceilings to lower into the MVFR range sometime during the day
Tuesday, but right now it looks it should be after TAF period. Winds
should generally be light during the TAF period but they will become
more consistently southeasterly during the day on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA, Chance
DZ, Chance FZRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Myskowski


 
 
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