000
FXUS61 KBTV 121843
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
243 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to possibly damaging wind gusts are expected through this
morning with localized wind gusts up to 55 mph along the western
slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains. Additional rain
showers are expected throughout the day with some thunderstorms
possible this afternoon. A cold front will move through the region
this afternoon and evening which will allow for some mountain rain
showers to mix or change to snow tonight and Saturday morning.
Continued shower activity is expected through the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 110 PM EDT Friday...We continue to monitor the potential
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Once a line
of storms moves through, however, precipitation at higher
elevations could turn to rain/snow mix or snow showers.
Temperatures continue to surprise this afternoon, however it is
largely dependent on where clouds and showers are setting up.
Some areas that had temps reaching the 70s (St. Lawrence Valley)
are now seeing significant temp drops as showers move through.
With this update, have also decreased winds and wind gusts as a
low level jet streak begins to move away, which will limit our
surface wind gusts. Previous discussion below:
Previous Discussion...Winds have been a bit tricky this
morning as several waves of precipitation have stabilized the
boundary layer and have limited mixing. However, in between
these waves of rainfall, we have seen a little bit of mixing
with Malone, NY already gusting to 50 mph. All guidance hints
at a prolonged period of dry weather moving into the North
Country between 3 AM and around noon. Model forecast soundings
show an inverted v structure which supports good mixing through
the morning hours which when coupled with a 70 knot low level
just should produce widespread wind gusts in excess of 45 mph.
The wind advisory was expanded to include additional locations
in Vermont including the northern Champlain Valley and portions
of northern and central Vermont given the dry slot coinciding
with the maximum winds aloft. Within the wind advisory, wind
gusts up to 55 mph are possible with the highest winds likely to
be along the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack
Mountains. Outside of the advisory, wind gust in the 35 to 45
mph are likely through the morning hour.
As winds aloft begin to weaken due to the upper level low
approaching from the west, we will see another round of
precipitation. This time, however, thunderstorms looks possible as
temperatures today are expected to rise into the mid 60s to near 70
degrees. Model soundings and CAMs are showing CAPE values
approaching 500 J/kg ahead of this afternoon round of
showers/thunderstorms which should be more than enough to help
produce some locally strong storms. Severe storms look unlikely as
shear values weaken drastically as the upper level low moves
overhead but some weakly organized storms seem possible at this
time. Some brief additional wind gusts in excess of 40 mph and a
burst of heavy rain will be possible with any thunderstorms this
afternoon. We will continue to monitor the potential threat for
localized areal/river flooding given saturated grounds and elevated
river levels but currently no rivers are forecast to reach flood
stage. See the hydrology discussion below for more details on the
possible flood threat.
A continuation of rain showers will likely continue through the
overnight hours and through much of Saturday, although the
thunderstorm potential will become NIL following sunset tonight.
Temperatures will begin to cool quickly following a cold front
passage this afternoon which will allow for some mountain rain
showers to mix or change over to snow showers tonight into Saturday
morning. Additional rainfall totals will be minimal on Saturday as
showers will be widely scattered and generally light which should
limit any additional flood concerns going forward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Showers will again develop across NY
on Sunday and spread into Vermont Sunday afternoon as another
shortwave rotates around the main low centered to our north.
Showers will quickly exit Sunday night and the trough pushes
through. Day time highs will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s,
with overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. Overall, QPF will be
minimal on Sunday, just a couple tenths of an inch or less.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 242 PM EDT Friday...Moving into next week, things will
remain unsettled as the low to our north sends another
shortwave through on Monday, although at this time, it looks
like most the precipitation will be along the higher terrain.
The mid- week will see a brief reprieve as ridging will bring
dry condition for Tuesday and early Wednesday before another low
pressure system moves in Wednesday night, bringing us multiple
rounds of precipitation for the back half of the week. Overall,
temperatures will continue to be more spring-like with highs in
the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to 40s.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 18Z Saturday...The strongest winds have moved through,
but will continue to gust at 20 to 25 knots through most of the
forecast period. The rain showers and thunderstorms are
currently moving through and bringing MVFR conditions through
most of the terminals. Showers should weaken overnight before
revamping tomorrow. Overall, expect most stations to bounce
between MVFR and VFR with KMSS seeing some IFR conditions as
showers increase again tomorrow morning.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Well above normal temperatures will continue today which will
allow for significant snow melt. In addition, rain showers with
the possibility of a few thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon. Highest rainfall amounts will favor southern
portions of the Adirondacks and south-central Vermont, where
storm total rain will be between about 0.50-1.25" The remaining
snow pack is mainly above 2000 foot elevation. There`s not much
left to melt below 2000 ft, but the higher summits still have
plenty of snow, and we lost about 0.50-1.00" of snow water
equivalent in the existing pack last night. Saturated soils
will likely result in more run-off into rivers. Otter Creek at
Center Rutland (CENV1) and the East Branch of the Ausable at
Ausable Forks (ASFN6) are currently forecast to remain in their
banks. Any additional snowmelt or rainfall beyond present
forecast expectations could send these rivers into minor
flooding and other main stem rivers towards bankfull. Beyond
river flooding, several rounds of rain and snowmelt could result
in ponding and localized flooding along low-lying farm fields.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK and KPBG are experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be
sporadic.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay/Storm
SHORT TERM...Verasamy
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...Verasamy
HYDROLOGY...Clay
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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