000
FXUS61 KBTV 140522
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
122 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous light rain showers, or higher elevation snow showers,
will wind down tonight. A round of somewhat heavier showers will
arrive Sunday afternoon. Drier weather will follow for the
first half of the work week, with the most pleasant conditions
expected for Tuesday, before chances for rain return.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1018 PM EDT Saturday...Latest upper air analysis and
satellite imagery show the base of the upper level trough has
shifted east of the region with a sharp clearing line noted
moving into the St. Lawrence Valley and showers ending across
the western Adirondacks. Over the next few hours this trend will
continue eastward with rain ending across the forecast area by
midnight or shortly thereafter, and clearing developing in the
broader valleys through sunrise. Breaks in clouds will develop
elsewhere, but overcast skies will likely remain across the
Northeast Kingdom. Lows remain on track to range through the 30s
with most location remaining above freezing.

For tomorrow after sunrise, clouds quickly fill in ahead of a
vigorous, compact low pressure system. The latest rainfall
amounts have trended upwards, especially in our southern zones,
occurring mainly in the afternoon hours with high probability of
rain showers, or snow at the highest summits in northern
Vermont and Mount Marcy based on expected low freezing levels.
The low freezing levels combined with some elevated instability
could support some graupel if it weren`t for relatively warm mid
level temperatures. Temperatures will likely warm into the
upper 40s to mid 50s before rain cooled air causes temperatures
to more uniformly drop into the low to mid 40s when the rain
moves into the region. Lighter rain may persist into the first
half of tomorrow night before winding down from west to east.
With weak low pressure in the region, winds should be light
tomorrow afternoon trending northwesterly overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked upper low continues to
rotate across far northern Quebec, allowing for lobes of weak
shortwave energy rounding the trough from Ontario into northern New
England. That means plenty of clouds with occasional light rain
showers to start the new work week, with the best coverage across
northern NY and northern VT. While snow could mix in across the High
Peaks of the Adirondacks, no accumulations and certainly no travel
impacts are expected. Typical high temperatures for mid April are in
the low to mid 50s, so forecast highs are quite close to
climatological normal. Forecast soundings suggest rather deep
boundary layer mixing up to 850 and even 800mb for certain sites, so
west or northwest winds could gust 25 to 30 mph at times. It will
pretty much be a rinse and repeat pattern for Tuesday, but with a
drier boundary layer, allowing for temperatures to reach mid 50s to
low 60s. So aside from the breezy conditions, Tuesday could very
well be the pick of the week with very pleasant weather for outdoor
activities. Lower dew points could also be mixed down from aloft,
and the adiabatic warming from a combination of downsloping
westerlies and deep mixing could lead to temperatures overperforming
compared to model guidance. Thankfully, due to antecedent wet
conditions, fire weather does not look to be a concern in this pre
green up environment.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 307 PM EDT Saturday...The weather pattern becomes more
unsettled towards mid week as we monitor a potential upper level
disturbance emerge out of the Four Corners region and track towards
the Great Lakes. The impacts from this feature will depend on how
far west the low pressure tracks with respect to our region.
Hydrologic concerns are not out of the question but that will hinge
on how much rainfall and how warm our region gets. The other silver
lining is that we will be several days removed from the recent
widespread rainfall event so creeks and rivers should have had
plenty of time to return to lower base flow. But for now given the
usual forecast uncertainty at this time frame, have largely stuck to
blended guidance. After the system exits, it looks like we are back
to rather pleasant spring weather with seasonable highs in the 50s.
This is consistent with the CPC`s latest 6-10 day temperature
outlook with equal chances of below and above normal temperatures
across our region.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions prevail
across the region this morning with a few pockets of brief IFR
ceilings near KRUT and KMPV. Improving conditions are expected
through 15Z before ceilings trend back down to MVFR at all
terminals with IFR likely at KSLK and KMSS. Another round of
showers will work through the region this afternoon but warmer
temperatures support all rain so visibility reductions are
expected to be minimal. Winds will generally be out of the WNW
up to 10 knots but occasional gusts up to 20 knots will be
possible at times throughout the day.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KSLK is experiencing comms issues. Dataflow may be sporadic.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Clay
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV