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  Thursday March 28, 2024

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 231347
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
947 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy and wet snow, along with a wintry mix across southern
portions of Vermont, will continue through much of the day
before exiting from west to east. Behind the storm, another cold
day is expected tomorrow but with tranquil weather. Dry and
sunny conditions are expected to begin next week, followed by
rising chances for precipitation by midweek. Temperatures will
moderate through midweek then trend cooler late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 947 AM EDT Saturday...Based on current stronger fgen band
of heavy snow across south central VT and latest reports,
boosted overall snow totals down in Rutland/Windsor/Orange
Counties up a bit. Also tightened the snowfall gradient in our
far northern counties to show slightly less snowfall due to
somewhat drier air in lower levels and a fairly narrow dendritic
snow growth zone of only a few thousand feet way up around 600
mb. This is why flakes have been on the finer/smaller side in
these areas. Have a great day!

Previous Discussion...
Overall our winter storm is on track as a plume of deep
atmospheric moisture in excess of 200% of normal per satellite
estimates continues to be funneled northward in advance of an
area of low pressure rounding the base of an upper level trough
in the southeastern US. Bands of snow will persist near and
north of a low level thermal gradient that will be quasi-
stationary over southern New England. So far the greatest
snowfall has likely been across south central Vermont. Over
time, the most intense 850 frontogenesis that is focus heavier
precipitation rates will gradually shift northward, providing
all of Vermont and far northeastern New York periods of snowfall
rates in excess of 1 inch per hour causing very difficult
travel conditions today. That being said, the latest data did
suggest perhaps a slight decrease in expected snowfall compared
to the previous forecast in many areas, especially in western
portions of the region, where the threat of heavy snow was
already low. A zone of a more moderate snowfall/low end warning
amounts still is expected in northwestern Adirondacks.
Meanwhile, the snowfall should begin winding down as early as
noon in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley after seeing only a
few inches of snow.

We have been watching the northward advancing mixed
precipitation line make it into southern Vermont early this
morning but has since retreated somewhat into far southwestern
Vermont. Overall, the northward edge of this line still looks
most likely to make it into much of Windsor and Rutland
counties. Chances of the wintry mix is rather low and coverage
limited farther north. So no significant changes were made from
the previous forecast as to sleet and freezing rain. These areas
also are most likely to see heavy and wet snow, so the risk of
scattered to numerous power outages remains. Temperatures in
some valley locations such as Danby and Pawlet should support a
period of plain rain as well this afternoon before low level
flow switches from southeasterly to northwesterly by this
evening. That change will coincide with the coastal storm
approaching Long Island, and it should quickly progress
northeastward arriving in the Gulf of Maine by around 11 PM.
After that time, the eastern flank of heavy snowfall should be
departing our region.

Post storm conditions look rather tranquil due to the storm
pulling away rather than wrapping up nearby. As such, only a
brief period of breezy conditions Saturday night will then give
way to light winds on Sunday. Some flurries are possible if a
shallow cloud layer remains in place given favorably cold
temperatures. After temperatures peak in the upper 20s to low
30s today and slip back into the teens tonight, high
temperatures will not be much different for Sunday. However, at
least some sunshine will provide a nice scene atop our fresh
snowpack.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Saturday...1040MB high pres wl be located just north
of Maine by 12z Monday, with ridge axis toward the NEK. The
combination of fresh snow pack and light winds, should result in
excellent radiational cooling conditions. Have cut NBM by 5 to 7
degrees with lows ranging from single digits SLK/NEK to mid teens
SLV/CPV. Mid/upper lvl ridge continues to build, while omega type
block is progged btwn trof over the High Plains, ridge Ohio Valley
into the NE CONUS and another closed trof off the East Coast. This
wl result in additional period of dry wx on Monday into Monday
night, with temps warming to near normal values by Monday. Progged
925mb temps btwn -2C and +1C should support highs in the mid 30s
summits to mid 40s valleys with mostly sunny skies. Should be
another beautiful day to enjoy the outdoors and all the fresh snow.
Monday night is quiet with a sharp west to east temp gradient
anticipated, based on winds and progged 925mb temps. Lows ranging
from mid teens east of the Greens to near 30F SLV.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 407 AM EDT Saturday...A highly amplified pattern
continues for mid to late week with growing spread amongst the
guidance as to timing of the ridge breaking down. Have cutback
pops for Weds into the chc range as ridge/dry air looks to hold
firm, while best s/w energy passes to our north. Have highest
chc pops acrs our western fa on Weds, with additional chc pops
on Thurs into Friday, as moisture expands along the eastern
seaboard. Pattern evolution and placement of sfc features are
challenging in such an amplified pattern with limited run to run
continuity noted. Have stayed on the conservative side of
guidance for temps Tues thru Friday, but with progged 925mb
temps btwn 3-5C, would not be surprised to see temps well into
50s for mid week, especially valleys. As sfc frnt pushes
eastward a general cooling trend develops for Thurs into Friday
with increasing chcs for precip, with some wet snow possible in
the mtns. Have temps cooling back into the 30s and 40s by late
week with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s for now. We will fine
tune fcst as spread in guidance decreases over the next 2 to 3
days.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Steady snow, with visibilities ranging
from 1/2SM to 1SM, is prevailing areawide. This should continue
through at least 18Z, and through 00Z in most if not all sites
from the Champlain Valley eastward before snow exits to the
east. In heaviest snow, which should generally shift northward
through the day, ceilings will tend to lower into the 500 to
1000 foot range, with otherwise mainly MVFR ceilings expected.
Aside from 11 to 15 knot northeast winds at KMSS, winds should
be 10 knots or less. Southerly winds at RUT should turn
northwesterly by 22Z, with all sites seeing northwesterly winds
after 00Z 7 to 12 knots and gradually diminishing towards 12Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ001>011-
     016>021.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ026-027-087.
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ028>031.
     Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ034-035.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...JMG/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Taber
AVIATION...Kutikoff


 
 
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