000
FXUS61 KBTV 201136
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and breezy conditions will continue across the
region today. Although Sunday and Monday will trend drier, it will
be unseasonably cool, especially Monday. Temperatures will begin to
moderate on Tuesday, with rain chances increasing over the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 722 AM EDT Saturday...Main changes with this update were
to adjust dewpoints to reflect the most observations. Some
light showers will continue to be possible this morning as a
surface cold front continues to move east. Outside a few
adjustments, the forecast remains in good shape.

Previous Discussion...As a weak frontal boundary continues to
move eastward from the region, a quiet and mostly dry morning is
expected across the region today as drier air moves in behind the
front. A fairly vigorous upper level trough will swing through this
afternoon, bringing additional chances for scattered showers, with
the greatest chances near the international border. Some of these
showers may produce graupel or some pea sized hail, with model
soundings show steep lapse rates. The limited moisture available
will hinder the potential for measurable precipitation with this
system, especially with some drier air at the surface to overcome.
Winds will once again be on the breezy side tomorrow, with gusts up
to 35 mph possible at the surface. Daytime highs will be on the cool
side, with temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s, with northern New
York and the northeast Kingdom on the cooler side due to shower
activity. Showers will taper off after sunset. Overnight low
temperatures will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, a few degrees below
climatological normal for this time of year.

Most of the day on Sunday will be dry, with a frontal boundary
moving across the region Sunday evening bringing a chance of some
scattered showers. With a tightening pressure gradient, winds will
increase throughout the day with gusts up to 30 mph possible in the
late afternoon into the evening hours. Daytime high temperatures
will climb into the 40s to around 50, with the broader valleys
nearing the mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Deep, cold shortwave rotates around
Hudson Bay strong, cold low across Quebec and northern New England
Sunday night. This will deliver a strong cold front with limited
moisture and instability for isold/sct rain/snow showers overnight
with a decent push of colder air with 925mb temps -6 to -10c by 12z
Mon. A chilly, somewhat breezy Monday with deeper valleys in the 40s
and some U30s in Mountain valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 349 AM EDT Saturday...Broad WNW upper low flow as Quebec
shortwave exits and awaiting next upstream shortwave in the Wed time
frame.

Ahead of next system, broad fast SW flow for temperatures to rebound
to near or above seasonable levels for Tue.

All 3 global deterministics/ensembles show another system for
Wednesday with the GFS a stronger outlier with a 520DM Closed Low
and 1004mb Surface while the ECMWF/Canadian show a strong shortwave
with potential weak surface low (1011mb) tracking across the area.
Although latest Canadian has trended toward GFS. Both solutions are
rather progressive with steady precipitation but GFS has upper low
lingering through Thu ngt. Most of the precipitation will be rain
but as colder air aloft comes in late Wed-Wed ngt some mountain
snow/rain mix.

NBM/WPC guidance has 1/3-1/2 inch with locally higher possible
through the period which is manageable across FA according to
long range hydrologic ensembles.

Attm...leaning toward ECMWF/Canadian solutions of gradual improving
conditions Thu-Fri but cooler than normal Thursday...a few degrees
milder than Mon with a rebound to seasonable temperatures on Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Sunday...Primarily VFR conditions across all
terminals this morning, with the exception of some MVFR ceilings
at KRUT. Improvement is expected over the next several hours,
with VFR conditions prevailing for most of the forecast period.
Some scattered showers across the region this morning will
continue to diminish for a brief period of mostly dry weather,
before another round of scattered showers develops this
afternoon into the evening (particularly across northern
terminals). Some of these heavier showers could bring brief
periods of reduced visibilities. Westerly winds will pick up
between 15Z and 18Z, with gusts up to 20 knots possible during
the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...Kremer