000
FXUS61 KBTV 231737
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
137 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue before rain moves back into the
region tonight and Wednesday ahead of a strong cold front.
Temperatures will drop throughout the day on Wednesday with the
chance for snow on Wednesday as precipitation tapers off. Only
minor accumulations of snow are expected given a period of warm
temperatures ahead of the falling snow. After one cool day on
Thursday, conditions will begin to warm and become above normal
for the new work week. Another interval of sharp drying takes
place Thursday and Friday. Rain chances will return Saturday
afternoon into the new week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Tuesday...It`s a sunny, breezy, and mild
afternoon across the region. Temperatures are currently well
into the 60s in most spots, with a few exceptions seen in the
Adirondacks and along/east of the Greens. Winds have been very
gusty, especially here in the Champlain Valley and along the
northern slopes of the Adirondacks into the St Lawrence Valley,
where gusts have been hovering around 30 mph much of the day.
Relative humidity values are low as expected, generally in the
25 to 30 percent range. This combined with the gusty winds keeps
fire weather the main concern for today. Please see the Fire
Weather section below or the Special Weather Statement that was
issued earlier today for further details. Overall the forecast
is in good shape, just made some tweaks to temperatures,
dewpoints, and winds, to bring things into line with the latest
conditions. Overall scope of the forecast remains unchanged with
this update.

Previous discussion... Despite south to southwest flow, the air
today will again be very dry. A range of high res guidance
suggest the coldest dewpoints will be late morning before
increasing. However, efficient warming will still yield dewpoint
depressions around 40 with relative humidity values in the
20s(maybe staying just above 30 percent in the St. Lawrence
Valley) from noon through 7 PM today. Combined with increasingly
gusty south winds of 20 to 30 mph, fire weather concerns are
present as conditions are near pre-green up criteria for Red
Flag in the northern Champlain Valley. We`re fortunate that the
area with the lowest RH and highest gusts today were where
showers were most concentrated a few days back.

With little moisture, we will efficiently warm into the 60s today.
It`ll be a gorgeous day if you`re willing to stand some breezy
weather. South winds will maintain warm weather overnight, and
then a strong upper trough will usher in some precipitation
overnight and into Wednesday. The system is most impressive for
the sharp deformation axis and strong frontogenesis in
conjunction with favorable coupling of surface convergence with
some upper divergence at the left exit of an upper jet. The
system is less impressive for its moisture parameters and fast
moving nature, which will act as limiters to overall
precipitation amounts. Regionally, amounts will be lowest in
southern Vermont and particularly the Connecticut River Valley
around a tenth or less. Further north, about 0.20-0.50" is
expected. Along the international border in New York, some
locations may observe about 0.75" of liquid. Strong cold
advection on the backside will drive cold, dense air near the
surface and make for a transition to some snow before it clears
the region. Snow should be fairly short-lived and antecedent
warmth will preclude much in the way of accumulations, but parts
of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains could approach
1" with perhaps 2" at summit levels. Daytime highs across the
northern tier will likely happen in the morning/early afternoon
before the front crosses with 40s to lower 50s in southern
Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...A cold, dry airmass will move into the
region in the wake of a strong cold front that moves through
Wednesday, which will quickly bring any precipitation to an end. The
dry air and calm winds will allow for strong radiational cooling,
with overnight lows dropping into the 20s, and even the teens in
some locations.

Dry conditions will continue for Thursday as the region remains
under the influence of high pressure. Daytime highs will be cold by
late April standards, with highs climbing into the upper 40s to mid
50s. Despite the cooler temperatures, abundant sunshine and light
winds across the region will make it fairly pleasant. Another cold
night can be expected overnight Thursday into early Friday morning
with clear skies and light winds, with temperatures dropping into
the 20s to near freezing once again

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday...Another dry and sunny day will round out
the work week as high pressure continues to shift eastward, with
increased southerly flow allowing for warmer, seasonable
temperatures. Precipitation chances will increase as we head into
the weekend into early next week as several shortwaves rotate into
the region, although guidance is still fairly spread with the exact
timing of these features. The other thing to consider is the amount
of dry air across the region these features will have to overcome
for measurable precipitation. Given the uncertainty at this point,
continued to stick with the NBM. Temperatures will continue to warm
up through the weekend, with highs in the 60s and possibly 70s by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions to prevail into this
evening, then conditions deteriorate overnight and Wednesday as
a strong cold front moves through the region from northwest to
southeast. Skies remain mostly clear this afternoon, with some
SCT-BKN ceilings seen along the international border of northern
NY. Clouds increase, especially after 00z Wednesday, and
precipitation will begin to spread eastward as well. Ceilings
will gradually fall to MVFR at all terminals by 08z-12z, and
reduced visibility 4-6sm in rain expected. Rain will transition
to a quick burst of snow after 12z Wednesday as temperatures
drop behind the front. IFR conditions likely in snow, especially
at KSLK/KEFK/KMSS. Gusty south winds will persist through 02z
Wednesday, abating a bit overnight. Winds then turn sharply to
the northwest behind the front, from 12z onward through the
period.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 343 AM EDT Tuesday...Dry weather is expected this
afternoon. The core of the lowest dewpoints will happen this
morning and early afternoon, but efficient heating will continue
to produce large dewpoint depressions. The minimum RH values
are expected to be slightly higher compared to yesterday, but
still likely to dip into the 20 percent range. Parts of the St.
Lawrence Valley may stay above 30 percent depending on how
quickly incoming moisture arrives. Based on our local red flag
criteria, we are expected to hit red flag conditions (25+ mph
winds and RH below 30%) late this morning into this evening.
However, fuels remain sufficiently moist to prohibit the
issuance of a red flag warning. Nevertheless, fine fuels such as
leaf litter and twigs are sufficiently dry to start a few brush
fires. As such, open burning is not encouraged today. Please
visit or contact your local forestry or environmental protection
services for additional information. Remember, the state of New
York has a burn ban in place through May 14th.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Hastings/Haynes
FIRE WEATHER...Clay