000
FXUS61 KBTV 192330
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
630 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY EARLY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME CLEARING. LOW PRESSURE
MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WILL BRING A RETURN OF
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE
REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...A REINFORCING SHOT OF MODIFIED
ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES MONDAY WHEN A LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 338 PM EST WEDNESDAY...NORTHERLY FLOW AND SOME LINGERING
LOW/MID LEVEL MSTR RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLDS ACRS THE
RGN...AS EVIDENCED BY LATEST STLT PICS. RADAR CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A FEW LIGHT LIGHT SNOW SHWRS OR FLURRIES...MAINLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE CHMPLN AND OVER HIR TRRN. NORTHERLY FLOW ABATES
TONIGHT. EXPECT A PERIOD OF CLEARING AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESURE
MOVES ACRS THE AREA. ANY CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS
A SHRTWV TROF MOVES SEWRD ACRS THE GRTLKS AND THEN ACRS WRN NY/PA
BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A RETURN OF MID LVL CLDS TO THE
RGN...BUT ANY SNOW SHWRS EXPECTED TO RMN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. DIMINISHING WNDS AND CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPS TO DROP INTO SINGLE NUMBERS AND TEENS. TEMPS WILL STEADY AND
PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AT NITE WEST OF THE GREEN MTNS WITH
ARRIVAL OF MORE CLDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 338 PM EST WEDNESDAY...MID LEVEL SHRTWV ALONG WITH WEAKENING
SFC LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THURS. DEEP
MSTR WILL BE OVER THE RGN RESULTING IN MAINLY CLDY SKIES.
HOWEVER...BEST DYNAMICS REMAIN SOUTH ALONG WITH VERY LIMITED
FORCING...SO CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PCPN ARE MINIMAL. HAVE GONE
WITH NOTHING GREATER THAN SLITE CHC POPS.

WITH PASSAGE OF AFOREMENTIONED SHRTWV...EXPECT A REINFORCEMENT OF
ARCTIC AIR THURS NITE THRU FRI NITE IN PREAVILING NW FLOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A CHC OF SNOW SHWRS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIR TRRN ZONES.
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST 850-500 MB AIR ARRIVES LATE FRI NITE AS
STRONG SHRTWV DIGGING SEWRD ACRS GRTLKS EVOLVES INTO CUTOFF UPPER
LOW. TEMPS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. HAVE UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 338 PM EST WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK UNSETTLED
IN THE LONG TERM WITH MEAN 500MB TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVG THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO
DIVERGING SOLUTIONS OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE WAVE OVER THE NORTHEAST. FOR THIS WEEKEND A REINFORCING
SHOT OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND -17C FOR SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
OUT OF THE MID-20S IN THE VALLEYS AND UPPER TEENS IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY EVENING AS DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA AND
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY SUNDAY EVENING CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
WITH MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF STRATIFORM SNOW TO DEVELOP...BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. BY MONDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE AREA KEEPING THE THREAT OF SNOW OVER THE CWA. DEPENDING ON IF
THERE IS COASTAL REDEVELOPMENT OR NOT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PBL
TEMPS WILL BECOME MARGINAL WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT STILL EARLY TO TELL. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ALBEIT WITH MAINLY OVC CONDS. PESKY SCT/BKN STRATOCU FROM
035-050 KFT TO HANG TOUGH ACROSS NWRN VT/NRN NY OVERNIGHT ALONG W/A
FEW SCT FLURRIES INVOF LK CHAMPLAIN. THESE CIGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR
FOR A TIME AT THE KSLK TERMINAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. WINDS
TO REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY...AND GENERALLY 5 KNOTS OR LESS. ADDL MID
LVL WAA CLOUDS ASSOC WITH WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS ERN LAKES TO
ALSO SLOWLY PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN
PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY W/LITTLE FANFARE
OTHER THAN CONTINUED BKN/OVC CONDS. AGAIN...VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL
UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...THURS NIGHT THROUGH SAT WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH TEMPO MVFR IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
DUE TO LOWER CIGS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SUMMITS SHOULD STAY
OBSCURED DURING MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH MOIST LOW LEVELS AND
PERSISTENT NW UPSLOPE FLOW. SUNDAY COULD BE THE CLEAREST DAY WITH
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...JMG/DUMONT

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion