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  Sunday March 24, 2019

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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897
FXUS61 KBTV 240723
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area later today into this evening
with a period of scattered light rain and snow shower activity,
mainly across northern counties. Behind the front dry and cold
weather returns for Monday and Tuesday as Canadian high pressure
builds into the Northeast. As the high presses eastward,
southerly winds will usher in much milder air from Wednesday
onward into the late week time frame.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...Quiet weather continues for much of
today with mainly sunny skies expected through early to mid
afternoon. High temperatures will rebound into the upper 30s to
mid 40s north, and mid 40s to around 50 for central/southern
counties under west to southwesterly winds. By later in the day
and into this evening a modified polar front will sink south
through the area with a period of scattered rain and snow shower
activity behind the northerly wind shift. Given the dry nature
of the airmass wet bulbing processes will likely keep rain/snow
thresholds a tad higher than normal - say 35-37 degrees. Best
coverage to occur generally in the 600 pm to midnight time frame
and focused more across northern counties where terrain
interaction and favorable right entrance upper jet dynamics will
help foster better lift. Model blended 6-hour QPF to generally
range from a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth of an inch with
snow accumulations an inch or less in most spots - perhaps 2
inches at favored northern summits.

Precipitation then tapers off quickly after midnight tonight as the
front pushes south and skies trend clear to partly cloudy over time.
Post-frontal northerly flow of 5 to 10 mph to become light overnight
as low temperatures bottom out at seasonably cold levels from 15 to
25 in the valleys and upper single digits to mid teens in elevated
terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 305 AM EDT Sunday...The Monday/Tuesday time frame
continues to look seasonably cold and very quiet as the
aforementioned surface high settles across the region. No
precipitation is expected under mostly sunny/clear skies. High
temperatures both days to range from the upper 20s to mid 30s
with lows Monday night showing greater variability with expected
radiative effects - single digits and teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 321 AM EDT Sunday...Cold conditions will last through early
morning Wednesday as a Canadian airmass remains over the
region, as skies will be mostly clear with lows Tue night in
the teens to single digits.

As an upper level ridge moves across the region Wed into Thu, a
shift to southerly wind flow will bring a welcome change from
the recent cold, as temperatures return to seasonal levels
Wednesday with highs in the 40s. The warm trend will continues
through the rest of the week as warm into the 50s on Thursday
and mid to upper 50s on Fri, with some spots seeing 60 not out
of the question.

The next chance for precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday
as as a an upper level trough and associated front swing down
through region. Models are still split on timing and on amounts of
QPF, but right now temperature profiles suggest a rain-snow event
with the valleys remaining rain while the higher elevations see a
mix and the highest peaks seeing just snow. Things should come into
better focus next week as we get closer to the event.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z Monday...VFR/SKC through 16-18Z as high pressure
departs and frontal system approaches from the north. After
16-18Z frontal boundary crosses with cigs trending BKN/OVC
MVFR/VFR generally in the 018-035 AGL range. Scattered rain/snow
shower activity expected along and behind the boundary for a 2-4
hour period. Scattered nature of coverage warrants only VCSH at
most terminals, though did offer a steadier period of light
snows at KSLK. Winds light to modest south/southwesterly in the
5-10 kt range through 16-18Z (occnly gusty to 15 kts at
KSLK/KPBG/KBTV), then shifting north/northwesterly 5-10 kts in
the 18-00Z time range behind the front.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...Verasamy
AVIATION...JMG



 
 
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