342
FXUS61 KBTV 160534
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Burlington VT
134 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer and muggier weather will begin to move into the region
Tuesday, along with increasing precipitation chances. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon, but the
best chance for rain will arrive Wednesday with the remnants of
Barry. The weather will remain unsettled through the end of the
week, and anticipate very warm and humid conditions as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 134 AM EDT Tuesday...Going forecast in real good shape
and no big changes needed at this time. Should see a gradual
increase in mid level clouds associated with decaying convection
moving out of the eastern Great Lakes. Will monitor to see if
we get any showers moving in toward daybreak...but drier air
over our area suggests threat is very low.

Previous Discussion...
Dry weather continues overnight as high pressure centered over
western NY and PA translates ewd across the region. The daytime
fair weather cumulus will dissipate with the onset of the
diurnal cooling cycle this evening, leaving just some thin
cirrus overnight. Dewpoint depressions remain similarly large to
last night, and should keep any fog development localized. With
dewpoints in the low to mid 50s, it`ll be the last comfortable
night for awhile; lows will be in the mid 50s to around 60.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase tomorrow with a warm
front lifting across the North Country. This will bring an influx of
moisture; PWATs will surge to 1.5-2 inches by the evening. The best
dynamics will remain to our north, closer to the parent low/upper
trough, but expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop during the afternoon with warm air advection and
increasing instability. Areas along the international border will
have the best chances of seeing any precipitation. Highs will be in
the lower to mid 80s.

Showers will gradually become more widespread Tuesday night as the
remnants of Barry draw near. Dewpoints will remain in the mid and
upper 60s, making for a very muggy night. Lows will be in the mid
60s to around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 440 PM EDT Monday...Increasing humidity on Wednesday with
a cold front crossing our area as well as copious moisture
streaming northward into our area. Expect widespread rain
showers, embedded thunderstorms and heavy rainfall as well.
PWATS will be pushing two inches and warm cloud depths will also
be present, increasing confidence for some heavy rainfall.
Temperatures on Wed will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s,
dampened by clouds and precipitation which will be spreading
across our area. Currently looks like heaviest precipitation
will be in the afternoon. Latest guidance seems to keep most of
the remnants of Barry to our South, but there`s still potential
for us to get in on that deep moisture. Showers will be ending
Wed night from west to east across our area along with threat
for heavy rain. Temperatures will remain warm and conditions
quite muggy. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 440 PM EDT Monday...A warming temperature trend is
expected beginning Thu. Will have a chance for some showers
especially Thu afternoon with a shortwave moving across the
area as well as a warm front lifting through. Right now looks
like Fri and Sat will be the warmest of the period and will need
to monitor for potential heat related headlines towards the end
of the week. A weak cold front will push through the region
early Saturday without a lot of change in temperatures for the
daytime highs Saturday afternoon. A secondary cold front crosses
the area later Sunday and should finally push this airmass out.
Will have to monitor any small changes in the forecast because
there`s enough surface based instability for some storms to
develop if we can develop some surface forcing to help trigger
development.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR through the period with mainly
clear skies through the remainder of the nighttime hours...just
some passing high clouds. Decaying convection across Ontario
will bring chance for VCSH at northern New York terminals
through early morning, otherwise 4000-6000 ft scattered/broken
deck of cumulus clouds throughout the daytime. Overcast deck and
precipitation chances move in towards 00z as a warm front
approaches the area. Winds overnight will be light and variable
turning south/southwesterly between 07-10 knots by 14z tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance
TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance TSRA,
Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hastings
NEAR TERM...Evenson/Hastings
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...LaRocca