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  Friday March 27, 2015

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 270757
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
357 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO A
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE DRIER AIR
WILL LEAD TO A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION LEADING
TO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY... CURRENT COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWS THE BULK
OF THE AVAILABLE PRECIP IS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT ECHOS SHOW OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT.
CURRENTLY DONT HAVE ANY GROUND TRUTH AS TO THE LIGHT ECHOS BUT ITS
POSSIBLE A FEW LIGHT SNOWFLAKES ARE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS
THE SURFACE IS ALMOST COMPLETELY SATURATED. GIVEN THE HEAVY
SATURATION AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS, SOME PATCHY FOG HAS
FORMED ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND UP INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
HERE AT THE BTV AIRPORT WE ARE STILL CLEAR BUT ACROSS THE LAKE IN
PLATTSBURGH THEY ARE REPORTING 3 MILES OF VISIBILITY AND FURTHER
SOUTH IN BOTH RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD BOTH SITES ARE REPORTING
BETWEEN 1-3 MILES OF VISIBILITY. CURRENT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE REGION PRETTY MUCH LOCKED IN WITH SATURATION THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING BEFORE FINALLY BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. FORECAST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS LOOK TO STAY BELOW 6 MPH IN THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING EXPECT THIS MORNINGS
COMMUTE TO SEE SOME AREAS OF PATCHY FOG. AS OF THIS UPDATE I DONT
EXPECT ANY SORT OF WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS OFF SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA,
THE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.  THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL COMBINE WITH THE TOPOGRAPHY OF THE MOUNTAINS IN BOTH
THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY BEFORE THE DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THE SURFACE EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO CONTINUE TO BE
FUNNELED INTO THE REGION MOST OF THE DAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL LIKELY
BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF VERMONT AND IN THE MID TO LOW
30S ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 351 AM EDT FRIDAY...IT REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE QUITE SLOW TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND REGION AND WILL STILL BE TRYING TO HOLD ON THIS EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH DOES MOVE THE EAST WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLEARING
SKIES AND COLD DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON
SATURDAY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20`S ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE
AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2000 FT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS WITH THE TYPICAL COLD
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE
LEADING TO A RETURN OF WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW. THAT WILL CAUSE
TEMPS ON SUNDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST
OF VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT FRIDAY...A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AND AN ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS. A FEW MINOR TROUGHS/LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EMBEDDED IN W-NW FLOW EXPECTED...WITH MAIN LIGHT
PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY.

NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW PASSING TO
OUR NORTH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO GENERALLY LOOKING AT A DUSTING TO 1-2" OF
SNOW...WITH HIGHER AMTS GENERALLY AOA 1000FT. MAY SEE A
FEW RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS EWD
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPR
20S...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT A NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PASS JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF INCREASING CLOUDINESS...AND ALSO CARRIED 20-30 POPS ACROSS
NRN NY ZONES FOR RAIN/MTN SNOW SHOWERS AS BEST DIFFERENTIAL PVA
PASSES BY DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON TUESDAY GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...TO UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S
ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY FAIR TUESDAY NIGHT...WEDNESDAY... AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH NARROW RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NERN CONUS INTO QUEBEC. LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
20S...AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE UPR 30S TO LOWER 40S.

MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TO WSWLY ON THURSDAY WITH
WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS LIKELY BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...SIGNIFICANT QPF APPEARS
UNLIKELY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AGAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
NORMS...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...LINGERING AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW-NE ALONG THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE
FURTHER OFFSHORE. THAT SAID...WILL SEE A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING AND
VSBY CONDITIONS AT THE TAF LOCATIONS...AS THE NORTH COUNTRY
REMAINS WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE. GENERALLY VFR AT PBG/BTV...BUT LIFR
WILL CONTINUE AT TIMES FOR MPV/MSS/SLK/RUT WITH LOW CEILINGS IN
PLACE. AREAS OF MIST ARE ALSO EXPECTED. UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...MAINTAINING MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. MAY
ALSO SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AT SLK THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT (AND
VARIABLE) EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAK P-GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE SURFACE WINDS BECOMING NW 5-10 KTS
OR SO AFTER 15Z AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS...AND REMAINING NW TO NORTH
5-10 KTS FRIDAY EVENING RIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CENTRAL/ERN VT
WITH ISOLD SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF S-SW WIND GUSTS 25KTS
06-12Z MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...BUT SOME MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY... MAINLY
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS/SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS



 
 
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