000
FXUS61 KBTV 052328
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
628 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WEAK COLD FRONTS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN THE WEEK
AND AGAIN TOWARD WEEKS END...BUT OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 628 PM EST SUNDAY...MINOR NOISE LEVEL ADJUSTMENTS TO
T/TD/SKY DATASETS PER CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AS OF 615 PM THIS
EVENING. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT
WITH BREAKS HERE AND THERE...MAINLY CLEAR SOUTH. ALSO OPTED TO
CHARACTERIZE ANY LIGHT PCPN AS SCT FLURRIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN MTNS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. REST OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE A NICE EVENING.

PRIOR DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE REGION SPLITTING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM JETS. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBS SHOWING STRATOCU DECK OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK VORTMAX AND SURFACE BOUNDARY FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. KSLK AND KPTD REPORTED LIGHT SNOW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH LOW LEVEL WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE. EXPECT CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST...WITH ONLY RUTLAND/WINDSOR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. HAVE FLURRIES REST OF
AFTERNOON...THEN SLGT CHC SNOW SHOWERS IN DACKS AND FAR NORTHERN
VT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM EST SUNDAY...FOR MONDAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETREATS
NORTH...AND COMBINATION OF MORE SUN AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
WARM MAX TEMPS AT LEAST 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT 500
MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH SAGS SOUTH...LOWERING HEIGHTS AND PUSHING
COLD FRONT INTO REGION EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. QUITE A TEMP
GRADIENT...WITH 850 MB TEMPS -6 TO -8 SOUTH AND -12C ALONG
NORTHERN BORDER. COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED NORTH OF THE BORDER
WITH -24 TO -26C AIR IN EAST CENTRAL QUEBEC TUESDAY. NAM GUIDANCE
WAS NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN MAV FOR MONDAY NIGHT LOWS AND TUESDAY
HIGHS. UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS A LITTLE...AS ALL MODELS
SHOWED NORTH WINDS AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION 06-12Z THAT
MOS GUIDANCE DIDN`T SEEM TO BE REFLECTED IN THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE.
OTHER THAN THAT...CHC POPS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTH
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS MAX TEMP TO SEASONAL HIGHS TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM EST SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE
DAYS WITH REGARDS TO DAYS 4 THRU 7...WHICH WL CONT TO SUPPORT NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS AND BLW NORMAL CHCS FOR PRECIP. NO LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THRU DAY 7 ACRS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
BEST CHC FOR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC
FRNT ON FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL QPF WL BE UNDER 0.10". HIGHEST POPS
WL BE ACRS THE DACKS/NORTHERN GREEN MTNS...WITH LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE...STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARDS TO DEVELOPMENT OF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND MAGNITUDE OF LLVL
CAA ACRS OUR CWA. GIVEN PREVIOUS TRENDS THIS WINTER...EXPECT A
BRIEF 24 TO 36 HR WINDOW OF BLW NORMAL TEMPS FOR NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT
THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN TEMPS WARMING BACK UP BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR WEDS INTO THURS...SFC HIGH PRES WL SHIFT OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST...WHILE ARCTIC BOUNDARY APPROACHES OUR FA BY
FRIDAY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -8C AND -10C SUPPORT NEAR NORMAL
HIGHS...BUT GIVEN LIGHT WINDS AND CLR SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD
RANGE FROM -5F TO 15F ACRS THE CWA ON WEDS MORNING...VERY SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL LOWS WL OCCUR THURS AND
AGAIN FRIDAY...BEFORE MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THINKING HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS/L20S WITH LOWS RANGING
BTWN -10F SLK/NEK TO SINGLE DIGITS/NEAR 10F BTV/CPV. CLOUDS/WINDS
WL MAKE FOR TRICKY EXTENDED LOW TEMPS FCST NEXT WEEKEND...GIVEN
VERY COLD 925MB TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IR SATELLITE SHOWS BKN/OVC VFR CEILINGS
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. UPSTREAM OBS OVER
NORTHERN/CENTRAL QUEBEC SHOW CEILINGS IN THE MVFR CATEGORY.
EVENTUALLY THESE CEILINGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING THOUGH THESE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME
SCATTERED FLURRIES POSSIBLE AT SLK AND PERHAPS MPV AFTER MIDNIGHT
THOUGH VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THESE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR EARLY MORNING ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS THEN WILL INCREASE AND
BECOMING GUSTY /TO AROUND 20 KNOTS/. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH TOMORROW BUT NOT EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE TAFS UNTIL
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THRU THURS...WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC COLD FRNT AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUES. BEST POTENTIAL WL BE ACRS THE MTNS TAF SITES.
ALSO...SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRNT WL SHIFT TO A NW
DIRECTION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND BECM GUSTY FOR A TIME ON
TUES...BEFORE HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO OUR TAF SITES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HANSON
NEAR TERM...JMG/HANSON
SHORT TERM...HANSON
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER/LOCONTO

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion