FXUS61 KBTV 211121
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
621 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017
Cloudy yet unseasonably mild weather will continue for the
North Country this weekend. A weak disturbance across the
eastern Great Lakes moving northeastward into prevailing high
pressure, providing just a chance of a few light rain showers
and patchy drizzle to the North Country today into tonight. The
start of the work week brings a more active period of weather. A
moisture laden system moving slowly northeastward from the Gulf
coast states will bring a wintry mix to the North Country,
along with the potential for strong and gusty winds, especially
along the western slopes of the Green Mountains. After this
system shifts away through the Canadian Maritimes, temperatures
will remain unseasonably mild. May see some additional rain or
snow showers through the later half of next week.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 614 AM EST Saturday...No changes to the forecast with this
update. Temperatures steady state under the cloud cover, with
light fog/drizzle across the area covered with light
rain/drizzle in the forecast.
Previous discussion...Surface high pressure over the Gulf
of Maine this morning will remain our controlling weather
feature through the weekend. Prevailing S-SW low-level flow is
maintaining unseasonably mild temperatures in the 30s in most
sections early this morning. In addition, 2-meter dewpoints are
in the low-mid 30s, resulting in patchy fog. Low-level moisture
trapped below the subsidence inversion (near 3kft AGL), is
keeping stratus deck locked in, and precluding much in the way
of radiational cooling as a result. The 00Z NAM fcst soundings
suggest little in the way of cloud trends today and tonight, but
some partial clearing possible during the day Sunday.
There is a weak warm frontal zone across Lake Ontario ESEWD
across central/sern NY. Fog and very low stratus are more
abundant across the srn tier of NY and PA early this morning.
Expectation is for some very spotty rain shower activity or
patchy drizzle to move newd into our region (20-30 PoPs)...with
any of the light precip occurring mainly 12-16Z. With temps
mostly above freezing, not expecting much in the way of icy
conditions, though an icy spot or two is possible in sheltered
Moving into Saturday afternoon, despite clouds, temps will
reach the low- mid 40s, generally about 14-18deg above the climo
mean for this time of year. Little change in air mass brings
lows in the low-mid 30s for Saturday night with patchy fog
possible. Sunday will remain mostly cloudy (few breaks possible)
with temperatures again into the low-mid 40s. Little or no
measurable precipitation is expected today/tonight/Sunday; the
spotty light shower/drizzle this morning may result in a few
hundreths in isolated spots.
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Saturday...A weak ridge of high pressure will
be over the region Sunday night. However, model guidance
continuing to show a low level temperature inversion over the
region which will continue to trap in low clouds across the
region, so have gone with cloudy skies for Sunday night.
On Monday, ECMWF and GFS models both showing that moisture from
a low pressure area at the surface and aloft over the mid
Atlantic states will be slow to move north into the region
during the day on Monday. Have held off on bringing precipitation
into the region until mid to late Monday afternoon across most
of the region. Models continue to show the region will received
mixed precipitation, rain, snow or sleet.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Saturday...Models continuing to show a
prolonged period of unsettled weather through the period, with
temperatures remaining warmer than normal through the period as
The low pressure area over the mid Atlantic states will continue
to mov slowly north through the period with models continuing to
show a mix of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain possible
Monday night and Tuesday. Surface pressure gradient tightens
Monday night and Tuesday, with increasing east and southeast
winds across the region, with some areas of downslope likely.Precipitation
winds down across the region late Tuesday night, as surface low
pressure area moves north into the Canadian maritimes.
Models continue to show another low pressure system to move in
from the Great Lake late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a
chance of rain and snow showers to the region. The region will
remain under cyclonic flow on Friday, with a chance of rain or
.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Through 02Z Sunday...Stratus deck trapped beneath inversion
layer will maintain MVFR/IFR ceilings through the next 24hrs
with HIR TRRN OBSCD. IFR ceilings will be prevalent through the
day in nothern New York KMSS/KSLK taf sites, and a lesser threat
in Vermont and Champlain Valley until this evening. Light DZ/BR
across the region at early morning with ifr to mvfr
visibilities, and forecast this to continue through mid-morning.
A weak mid-level disturbance moving into prevailing ridge will
bring just an outside chance of a few light rain showers or
patchy drizzle. Don`t anticipate anything significant in terms
Outlook 12Z Sunday through Wednesday...
12z Sunday - 18z Monday...MVFR and IFR ceilings and VFR to MVFR
visibility in 3-5sm br, improving to VFR for a short time
18z Monday through Wednesday...Conditions deteriorate to IFR
with widespread wintry mix of precipitation moving in late
Monday into Tuesday, then temperatures cooling to support snow
through Wednesday. Strong southeast downslope winds on
Monday...especially at KRUT, with gusts in excess of 25kts
possible. Brief period of improving conditions possible early
Wednesday, before occasional RW/SW return mid- late week.