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  Sunday April 26, 2015

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261441
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1041 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN TODAY...WILL RESULT
IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A BETTER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
ON MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS AND NEAR
NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1041 AM EDT SUNDAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWING PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...EXPECTING THESE
AREAS TO CLOUD OVER LATER TODAY AS BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWING STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. ALREADY SEEING CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
YORK AND THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME SURFACE
HEATING. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BAND OF THICKER CLOUD COVER IS
ROTATING SOUTHWEST FROM QUEBEC AT THIS TIME AS WELL. WILL KEEP IN
CHANCE POPS FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
HELD OFF ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO MAX TEMPERATURES FOR NOW TO SEE
HOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS...BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE A BIT WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 719 AM EDT SUNDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ACROSS PART OF THE REGION THIS MORNING AND MATCH
TEMPS/DWPTS WITH CRNT OBS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DRY
AIR ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. FEEL THIS SUN WL HELP WARM SFC
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TO
PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT TO ENHANCE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
BY MIDDAY. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTN HOURS...WHEN BETTER S/W
ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH. REST OF FCST IN
FINE SHAPE.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH
DEEP CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A DEEP
FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONTS TO ADVECT FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL ROTATE SOUTH TOWARD OUR
CWA ON MONDAY...ALONG WITH BETTER LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA. HAVE NOTED
WEAK RIBBON OF DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN CWA THIS
MORNING...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE QUICKLY FILLING AS STEEP SFC TO
700MB LAPSE RATES DEVELOP FROM SFC HEATING AND COOLING ALOFT. THIS
INSTABILITY WL PROMOTE LIFT...AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS
BTWN 16Z-21Z TODAY. WL MENTION POPS IN THE 15 TO 25% ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF NORTHERN VT TODAY...WITH VERY
LIGHT QPF EXPECTED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SNOW LEVELS WILL START NEAR
2000 FEET THIS MORNING...BUT LIFT ABOVE 3000 FEET BY 18Z
TODAY...AS PROGGED 85H TEMPS APPROACH 0C. OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE NE CONUS...WITH PIECES OF ENERGY AND MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND A CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF DEEPER 1000 TO 700 MB MOISTURE AND WEAK
925 TO 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LIFT WILL PRODUCE
GREATER CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY BLOCKED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTING OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTH...ON NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.
HIGH RESOLUTION 4KM AND NAM 12 SHOW HIGHEST QPF FIELDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN DACKS AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREEN MTNS OF VT ON
MONDAY. WL CONT TO MENTION LIKELY POPS IN THE MTNS AND CHC POPS IN
THE VALLEYS...WITH QPF AMOUNTS BTWN A TRACE AND 0.15". PROGGED 85H
TEMPS NEAR 0C...SUPPORT SNOW LEVELS NEAR SUMMITS OF THE GREEN MTNS
AND AROUND 4000 FEET FOR THE DACKS. SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES
WILL BE OFF SET BY MORE CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP ON MONDAY. HIGHS GENERAL
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE MTNS AND L/M 50S WARMER VALLEYS.

BY TUESDAY...MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. STILL NOTICING A RIBBON OF
ENHANCED 850 TO 500MB RH IMPACTING OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA AROUND
18Z TUESDAY...ALONG WITH SOME VERY LIGHT QPF... MAINLY OVER THE MTNS.
GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE...WL CONFINE CHC POPS
MAINLY TO THE MTNS ON TUESDAY. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
IN THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SOME CLEARING DURING THE AFTN
HOURS...ESPECIALLY SLV AND PARTS OF THE DOWNSLOPE REGIONS OF THE
WESTERN CPV AND LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 0C AND
+1C...SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S MTNS TO 50S VALLEYS... WITH
MAYBE A FEW READINGS NEAR 60 IN THE WARMER LOCATIONS. IF MORE SUN
OCCURS WITH BETTER MIXING...TEMPS COULD BE 2 TO 4 DEGREES WARMER
THAN CRNT THINKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...DRIER... ANTI-CYCLONIC PATTERN EARLY THEN
RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF TROF ACROSS NE CONUS. THE BIG QUESTION AMONG
THE MODELS IS THE DETAILS ON HOW THIS BECOMES REESTABLISHED. THE
GFS/UKMET/GEM HAS A NORTHERN CUTOFF DROPPING ACROSS THE REGION
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SOUTHERN STREAM CUTOFF ESTABLISHING THE TROF
WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS ARE
A HYBRID OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. CURRENTLY...IT LOOKS LIKE NRN STREAM
WILL CUT OFF A LOW (ERLR SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS BUT ECMWF) BUT IN
A POSITION MUCH CLOSER TO THE ECMWF.

THE ONE TREND OF BOTH MODELS IS THAT THE AXIS IS SHIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST RATHER THAN BEING CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THEREFORE...ANY COASTAL LOW THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED NY/VT APPEARS TO
BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THE FURTHER SHIFT SOUTH SHOULD FOCUS MUCH OF
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH AS WELL THUS NOT LOOKING AS GLOOMY AS
SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND DARE I SAY IT...POSSIBLY A DRY SEASONABLE/ABOVE
SEASONABLE NEXT WEEKEND.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY WEDNESDAY WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING BEING
SQUEEZED BY DEPARTING CLOSED LOW AND NEW UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE.

BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS LATE WED NGT THRU THURSDAY WILL BE IN
NRN NY...CLOSER TO DIVING NRN STREAM ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND PERHAPS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THU NGT-FRI AS TROF AXIS SHIFTS ACROSS
REGION.

RIGHT NOW...DEVELOPING ANTI-CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS GREAT LAKES SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY AND SEASONABLE
NEXT WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...VFR BKN CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF DAY WITH SOME
SCT AT TIMES. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PCPN EVENTUALLY ARRIVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT WITH VFR-MVFR CIGS AND ISOLD IFR AT KSLK.
WINDS GENERALLY NORTH LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH LGT VRBL TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD
EXPECT VFR WITH PERIODS OF MVFR (AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR) IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT
NIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...WGH/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW


 
 
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