000
FXUS61 KBTV 130849
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
349 AM EST SAT MAR 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL SPIN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTH COUNTRY BEING ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME VALLEYS MAY WITNESS POCKETS OF FREEZING
RAIN AT NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS A MIX OF
RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET AT NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 335 AM EST SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
NORTH TODAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS GO THROUGH
DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENT PHASES INTO ONE MAIN SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW
ENGLAND BY TONIGHT.

DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND EASTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOUNT FOR SOME
DRIER AIR AND DOWNSLOPING THUS MAINLY SRN VT TO SEE ACTION AND IN
THE FORM OF RAIN TODAY.

AFT 18Z...ESE H8 LLVL JET OF 60+ KTS LARGELY CONFINED TO SRN VT
ALG/N OF PCPN SHIELD WHERE BEST MIXING TAKES PLACE THUS BEST SHOT OF
STG WNDS. JET INCREASES OVRNGT BUT PCPN STEADIER AND INVERSION
LOWERING THUS LESS MIXING/MOMENTUM EXPECTED. CRNTLY...XPCTG 35-45
KTS THUS WIND ADVISORY.

STEADIER PCPN SLOWLY MOVES N ACRS FA TNGT WITH GREATEST INTENSITY
ACRS SRN VT AND SRN ADRNDKS. MDLS ARE HINTING THAT ENUF UVM AND EVAP
COOLING FOR WET SNOW BUT WITH STG E FLOW AND MARGINAL TMPS
THROUGHOUT COLUMN...A MIXED BAG LKLY.

MDL SNDGS ARE INDICATING FZRA WITH SFC TMPS AOB 32F BUT THEN AGAIN
WITH BRISK WINDS AND BLYR RELATIVELY MILD THANKS TO 33 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS AOA CLIMO...NOT THAT CONFIDENT OF ANY BUILD-UP.

STL LOTS TO DISCERN ON FUTURE FCST PACKAGES...STAY TUNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EST SATURDAY...SFC LOW AND PCPN SHIELD SHOULD REACH
NORTHERN EXTENT OF TRAVELS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH GRDL EXITING E
SUN NGT-MON. PRIMARILY RAIN ON SUNDAY WITH SOME RAIN/MIXED SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY NGT BEFORE ENDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

ON MONDAY...A CONTINUED SLOW EXIT OF SYSTEM WITH GRADUAL BUILDING
UPPER AND SFC RIDGE FOR DRIER AIR AND INCRSG SUNSHINE INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EST SATURDAY...UPPER LOW MOVES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND BECOMES A RATHER
PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN INITIALLY...THEN MOVES SLOWLY EAST AS UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE...AND A GOOD DEAL OF SUN
EXPECTED. GOING FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS IDEA COVERED WELL AND
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WIND BEING THE ONLY ISSUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT THE
EASTERLY GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. KRUT WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST WITH GUSTS
TO 35 KNOTS EXPECTED AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
06Z SUN THROUGH 06Z MON...MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT KRUT BY 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO BAND OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY SE WINDS.
06Z MON THRU WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH VFR PREVAILING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON EST TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     VTZ010>012-018-019.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...SLW
SHORT TERM...SLW
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...EVENSON/NH

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion