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  Friday September 4, 2015

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 040739
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
339 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES TODAY
ALONG WITH LOWER HUMIDITY. THEREAFTER...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD
VERY WARM...MODERATELY HUMID... AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER FORECAST AREA
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR AN ABUNDANCE OF SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS WITH VALLEY HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THESE READINGS ARE
STILL ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL HOWEVER. (NORMAL HIGH IN BTV
TODAY IS 76). HUMIDITY LEVELS NOTICEABLY LOWER...WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 AM EDT FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTH
COUNTRY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH
SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE CLIMO FAVORED
AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME MID
AND UPPER 40S IN THE TRADITIONALLY COOLER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM. TEMP PROFILES WARM SLIGHTLY ON
SATURDAY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...SO HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD BE
COMFORTABLE FOR MOST.

RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SO LITTLE
CHANGE EXPECTED. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ALONG WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOME LATE NIGHT FOG ONCE AGAIN IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS CREEP UP A BIT. EXPECT MIN TEMPS SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY
IN THE 50S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...AS WE FINISH UP THE LONG HOLIDAY
WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN TO
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE RESULTING WEATHER WILL BE
CONTINUED WARM ADD DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S FOR LOWS, AND MID TO UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TUESDAY, LONG RANGE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND STRENGTH OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION. GFS AND CANADIAN GEM CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A
LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE THAN THE ECMWF WHICH HOLDS ON STRONGER TO THE
RIDGE IN PLACE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD A SOLUTION SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE
WILL OCCUR WITH A FEW LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS, BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OVERALL IMPACT. MEANWHILE, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING
FORWARD TO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME-FRAME WHERE A MORE POTENT
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED THOUGH,
THE BEST DYNAMICS LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE PARENT SURFACE LOW
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS RIGHT THROUGH
THE BTV CWA THURSDAY LIKELY PRODUCING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS. ONE THING`S FOR SURE, BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL SEE A
RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LATE SUMMER TEMPERATURES AND HOPEFULLY
(FINGERS CROSSED) THE END OF THIS HOT/HUMID STRETCH.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVERNIGHT LIFR/VLIFR AT
KSLK/KMPV. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE WIND IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THROUGH 09Z WHICH MAY
INHIBIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KSLK, BUT TURN LIGHTER TOWARDS
10-11Z. THUS, INSTEAD OF A FORECAST FOR PREVAILING LIFR, I`VE LEFT
IT AS A TEMPO. AT KMPV WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT SO
VLIFR IS EXPECTED FROM 08-13Z. AFTER 13Z, ALL SITES WILL BE VFR
FOR THE DAY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 00Z TUE...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT FOR VLIFR/IFR FG/BR LIKELY
AT KSLK/KMPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING.
00Z TUE - 00Z WED...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE SHRA/TSRA WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...RJS
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF


 
 
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