000
FXUS61 KBTV 092354
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
654 PM EST TUE MAR 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM EASTERN CANADA AND BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THE TREND TOWARDS A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN BEGINS ON FRIDAY AND LASTS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 334 PM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL SLOWLY
BUILD DOWN INTO THE REGION AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS
THE AREA. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND WITH THE LOWER
DEW POINTS...LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EST TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ON THURSDAY. ESSENTIALLY LOOKING AT DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE ON
THURSDAY...BUT WITH AREA STILL ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS...FEEL
VERTICAL MOTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS THAT
IS WHEN WE COULD SEE A SMALL THREAT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. CLOUDS
WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT...SO FEEL TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WARM
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES FALL IT WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE INTERESTING ELEMENT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WON OUT ON TUESDAY...BUT GENERAL WARMING TAKES PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE PRONOUNCED AIR MASS WARMING ON THURSDAY. DRY AIR
MASS WILL EXIST ON WEDNESDAY AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE MIXING AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 40S
AND LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY... GENERALLY 4 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES WHICH ARE PICKING UP ON THE MIXING. IN ADDITION...MIXING WILL
HELP LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE TEENS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOWERING INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. NOT
AS DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT WITH WARMER AIR MASS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EST TUESDAY...SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED STILL SIMILAR OVER
PAST FEW DAYS/MDL RUNS. BROAD UPPER LOW WILL SET UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY FRI/SAT. THE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER OVER THE
REGION RIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...PREVENTING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM EXITING OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE/PRECIP INTO THE CWA ON
FRIDAY WILL BE CONCENTRATED MORE OVER N NY AS MDLS KEEP UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST...AND ITS SFC COUNTERPART OVER
MAINE/CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS SFC LOW MEANDERS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST...MORE ATLANTIC MOISTURE PICKED UP BY SYSTEM...FUNNELING
NORTHWARD ON STRONG S/SE FLOW DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
SFC LOW BECM MORE ELONGATED OVER THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS
OVER E CANADA. THIS WILL PROVE TOUGHER FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO
THE AREA. RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO NUDGE SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND
TUES...FURTHER ERODING CHANCES OF PRECIP PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
WILL TAPER POPS OFF MON/TUES...WITH BEST CHANCES ON SAT/SUN. QPF
0.50-1.00". COLDER AIR AT NGT AND INTO MORNING HRS WILL ALLOW FOR
-SW TO MIX WITH RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER HIR TRRN(WHERE LGT ACCUM
POSSIBLE). WINDS WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO BLOCKING RIDGE TO OUR N AND E. BUFKIT
STILL HINTS THAT DURING THIS TIME FRAME ESE FLOW COULD PRODUCE
STEADY WINDS 15-30MPH...W/ HIR GUSTS ON SE FACING SLOPES. HAVE
UNDERCUT MDL GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLD
COVER..WHILE STAYING CLOSE TO OVERNGT LOWS. LARGE SCALE PATTERN
CHANGE WL TAKE PLACE DURING DAYS 4 THRU 7...WHICH WL FEATURE A
DEVELOPING AND VERY SLOW MOVING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS WL SUPPORT MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP CHCS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS
OVER THE REGION.

OUTLOOK 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
00Z THU THRU 00Z FRI...VFR.
00Z FRI THRU 00Z SUN...GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
00Z SUN THRU 00Z MON...MVFR RAIN LIKELY ALONG WITH STRONG S-SE
WINDS AND LLVL WIND SHEAR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 334 PM EST TUESDAY...WE CONTINUE TO SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NO
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA AND BY THURSDAY WE WILL HAVE GONE 10
FULL DAYS WITHOUT ANY PRECIPITATION. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND FOR WEDNESDAY HAVE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT
FINE FUELS. WEDNESDAY SHOULD SEE THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF THE WEEK WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING TO LOWER DEW POINTS WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE VALUES. THUS LOOKING AT READINGS IN THE 15 TO 25
PERCENT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...LAHIFF
FIRE WEATHER...EVENSON

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion