FXUS61 KBTV 280836
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
336 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020
Plenty of clouds with occasional very light snow or patchy
freezing drizzle will continue today mainly across the mountains
of northern New York and Vermont. Temperatures will remain on
the mild side with readings in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Surface
high pressure will slowly build into the North Country for mid
week, with a drying and slightly cooler temperatures
anticipated. Our next chance for snow showers arrives this
weekend associated with a trough and weak surface boundary.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 323 AM EST Tuesday...Very little change today as mid/upper
lvl trof remains acrs eastern Canada, with cyclonic northwest
upslope flw prevailing. This combined with highly blocked sfc to
850mb flow as froude is <.50 will continue to result in areas of
very light snow or freezing drizzle. Still dealing with
intervals of moisture in the favorable dgz today, as
soundings/water vapor show slightly deeper rh profiles this
morning, with embedded vort swinging acrs our northern cwa. This
will help to refocus additional light snow across our northern
mtns/eastern cpv and northwest slopes of the dacks. However, qpf
will be light and snowfall generally under an inch. Have
continued to mention high chc/low likely pops with highs pops
northern dacks and along the spine of the greens from Mansfield
to Jay Peak. Temps are tricky today, as we continue under modest
llvl caa on northerly sfc to 850mb winds of 25 to 30 knts. This
helps cool our 925mb temps 1 to 3c today with values in the -5c
to -8c range, supporting near steady temps in the mid 20s to
lower 30s. Tonight, soundings continue to show plenty of llvl
moisture below 4kft, supporting the idea of lots of lingering
stratus. Some breaks are likely slv/lower ct river valley and
downslope areas of the western cpv overnight, while flurries or
freezing drizzle lingers in the mountains, especially above 2000
feet. Have trended on the warmer side of guidance with lows
minaly in the upper teens to mid/upper 20s. By Weds moisture
slowly thins, as 1026mb high pres noses into our cwa. Given the
very shallow nature of the moisture profiles, expect higher
summits of the dacks and greens to break out with undercast
possible. Highs will be mainly in the upper teens mountains to
mid/upper 20s valleys.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 323 AM EST Tuesday...Clearing skies overnight and light
northerly winds should allow for efficient radiational cooling on
Wednesday night. Those in the valleys will wake up to temperatures
in the single digits and across the rest of the region near zero or
just below zero Thursday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm
into the 20s during the day. Expect increasing high clouds from a
passing shortwave embedded within the ridge pattern. PoPs nil. Winds
light and variable becoming southerly once surface high shifts east.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 323 AM EST Tuesday...For Thursday night, temperatures will not
be quite as cool with flow becoming southerly. Low temperatures
should still be in the single digits for the vast majority of the
region. The overall pattern is a messy, split flow regime with lots
of weak shortwaves embedded within a positively tilted trough out in
the Central US. A climatologically common scenario plays out with a
shortwave along the northern Gulf of Mexico lifting northeast and
spawning a surface low near the Carolina Coast.
As for the track of this feature, 00Z guidance has held on to its
more eastward solution with the GFS far to the west of its own
ensemble family. The UKMET is similarly quite far to the west, but
the CMC/EC families are stoutly east of the 40N 70W benchmark and
the GFS only barely sits inside. Nevertheless, the cyclone appears
to deepen significantly. We may get to benefit from some wrap around
precipitation along with some energy provided from a northern stream
trough. Otherwise, impacts here appear marginal.
Another amplified ridge develops over the US East Coast, so warm up
again we shall. Global-scale models are in excellent agreement on
another surface low should develop in the Central US and track into
the Great Lakes to our northwest. This will drag an occluded front
across the region midweek. We will get to test one of the recent
winter proverbs of the office: "If it`s going to the west, expect a
.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 06Z Wednesday...A wide range of flight categories
persist across our taf sites this morning with vfr at pbg and
ifr at btv/mpv. Thinking the combination of northerly winds,
highly blocked flow, and additional moisture will produce low
clouds and occasional light snow at btv with ifr conditions
prevailing thru 12z. Also, low lvl moisture and occasional snow
showers will result in mainly ifr at slk thru this morning.
Also, thinking ifr develops at rutland with blocked flow and
plenty of llvl moisture trapped below developing inversion.
Elsewhere, downslope flow and some drying will result in mainly
vfr at pbg with intervals of mvfr/vfr at mpv and mss thru 12z,
as northwest winds at 5 to 10 knots continue. A slow improving
trend from ifr to mvfr to eventually vfr will occur by late
aftn/early this evening, with mvfr lingering the longest at
btv/slk and rut.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance