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  Monday August 3, 2015

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 032309
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
709 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE COMING TO AN END. SOME OF THE STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN VERMONT COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. SEASONABLY COOLER AIR
WILL ARRIVE INTO THE AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD INTO MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY AUGUST NORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 709 PM EDT MONDAY...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK AND MOST OF
THE VERMONT COUNTIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RUTLAND...WINDSOR... AND
ORANGE COUNTIES WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS. HAVE TWEAKED THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE
STORMS TO MAINLY BE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RANGE. HAVE ALSO
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS GIVEN THE WIDE
RANGE FROM AREAS BEING HIT BY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LOCATIONS
THAT HAVE NOT SEEN ANY STORMS AT ALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY...FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UPPER TROUGH
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD AND SAGS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY OVER TIME.
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE PRIOR TRENDS IN SHOWING ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WITH FAVORABLE ARRIVAL TIMES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUESDAY WHEN INSTABILITY IS GREATEST...AND
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN
AREAS BOTH DAYS...MAINLY IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH GREATEST
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRENDING COOLER
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 441 PM EDT MONDAY... PERSISTENCE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION ALBEIT LESSENING INTENSITY AS WE GET TO LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND.

PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...COOL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AUGUST SUN WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO INSTABILITY AND LOW THREAT OF ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM FRI/FRI NGT BUT
STILL LEANING THAT WE`LL BE ON NORTHERN EDGE AT WORST...THUS KEEPING
MAINLY DRY FROM THIS SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE AOB SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT ONLY A FEW
DEGREES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/40S COLD
SPOTS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR IN
VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18-24Z. IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE AT KMPV/KSLK
BETWEEN 07-12Z TUE.

SCT -SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA AFT 16Z TUE...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

SSW WINDS 10-20 KTS THRU 22-24Z THEN LGT BETWEEN 00-12Z THEN SW/W AT
10 KNOTS AFT 12Z TUE.

OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

18Z TUESDAY - 12Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR... SCT AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR IN
BR/FG POSSIBLE 06-12Z EACH MORNING, MAINLY AT KMPV/KSLK TERMINALS.

12Z THURSDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
BUILD IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AWOS OBSERVATIONAL DATA FROM THE RUTLAND/SOUTHERN VERMONT
REGIONAL AIRPORT (KRUT) REMAIN UNAVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. FOR
AVIATION PARTNERS CURRENT OBSERVATIONS MAY BE ACCESSED VIA TELCO.
PLEASE REFERENCE FAA KRUT NOTAM 07/007 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RJS
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...SLW
AVIATION...SLW
EQUIPMENT...JMG


 
 
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