FXUS61 KBTV 211116
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017
High pressure will provide the North Country with above normal
temperatures and dry weather this weekend into early next week.
The next chance for widespread rainfall looks to be in the
Tuesday through Wednesday time period of next week as a slow
moving trough of low pressure impacts the region.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 AM EDT Saturday...Overall forecast in good shape and
no changes needed at this time. Quiet weather to continue with
upper ridge and associated surface high over the area today
through Sunday. Other than some high clouds should see plenty of
sunshine. Low level warm air advection today through Sunday
should allow for a warming trend with highs today in the upper
60s to lower 70s and in the upper 60s to mid 70s on Sunday.
These temperatures will generally be about 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Have noticed dew points are
generally in the 30s over the area early this morning and feel
models are a bit overdone on the dew points this afternoon based
on dew points to our south and west. Thus with the drier air
mass in place feel high temperatures today will be a bit higher
than guidance values and have bumped highs up a couple of
degrees. The warmer temperatures and the lower dew points should
allow for afternoon relative humidities in the 30 percent range
with a few locations down in the upper 20 percent range. Winds
will be under 10 miles an hour...which is noticeably less than
the past couple of days. Fine fuels remain dry and the
combination of sunshine and lower relative humidities will
promote further drying of the fuels...but lack of wind should
more than likely keep fire danger in the moderate category today
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Saturday...Unseasonably warm weather will
continue in the short term. Massive upper ridge with associated
surface high pressure system remains in place over the area
Sunday night before easing eastward with slowly falling heights
on Monday. In fact, the incredible 586 dm 500-mb heights peaking
at 00z Mon are at the climatological maximum percentile
ranking. Some high clouds will sneak over the ridge Sunday night
along with warm advection in a increasing southwest flow. Low
temps mid 40s east to mid 50s west.
On Monday other than high clouds, dry weather is expected with
925 mb temps 13-15C should bring max temps into the lower to mid
70s once again.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Saturday...Big change from the dry weather
pattern to a wet one is expected in the long term with good
model agreement on the large scale early next week as a digging
longwave trof moves into eastern us. There will be some cooling
closer to normal later next week as the trof moves eastward but
some significant model differences by then, so confidence is
low on the details.
There are differences in the details, timing, speed of the trof
development and short waves moving through it but it looks like
the best chances for rain will come Tuesday into Wednesday when
deep moist (PW >1.5") southerly flow develops over the area. Low
pressure will move up through the eastern Great Lakes and west
of the region on Tue with a cold front moving slowly eastward
through the region Tuesday night or Wed providing the main lift
for precipitation. The 00Z GFS has very little precip at BTV
while ECMWF has 0.50-1.5" which seems more reasonably at this
point. Eventually the trough axis shifts over the region
Wednesday night into Thursday and precipitation should taper off
to showers and decrease in areal coverage but with upper trof
and cooling aloft overhead there will be some instability
showers around into Thu. ECMWF is considerably slower than the
GFS moving the trof east hence the uncertainty in the forecast.
Looking at a continuation of much above normal temperatures Tue
in the upper 60s to lower 70s, just a bit cooler Wed and a bit
more Thu and Fri but perhaps not even to normal despite the
clouds and precipitation.
.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected through the
period with high pressure persisting over the entire Northeast.
Winds will generally be under 10 knots through the period.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR/MVFR. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.
KTYX radar at Fort Drum, New York will remain down for
scheduled maintenance until further notice as technicians
repaint the radome.