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  Friday April 18, 2014

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 180525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO SEASONAL NORMALS TO END THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY FOR A
NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 122 AM EDT FRIDAY...ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST UPDATE
WAS TO CONTINUE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH
LATEST UPDATE...MAINLY TO INPUT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO
GRIDS. BASED ON LATEST DATA AND TRENDS...HAVE RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

EARLIER DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST
INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. OUTSIDE OF A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS
DRIFTING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA...CONDITIONS WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S...WITH
A FEW TEENS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER HOLLOWS OF THE DACKS AND
NORTHEAST KINGDOM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT THURSDAY...SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL START
THE DAY ON FRIDAY BUT CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC DRAGS A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...925 TEMPS REBOUND
NICELY FROM BELOW 0C IN THE MORNING TO +3-5C BY THE AFTERNOON
SUPPORTING HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S VALLEYS...TO MID/UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE. FRONT APPROACHES THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN
THE DAY WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS MOVING IN BY SUNSET. DUE TO THE
DRY ANTECEDENT SURFACE CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH WEAK LIFT AND A
VERY THIN RIBBON OF 1000-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...NOT EXPECTED MORE THAN A TENTH OF QPF AREA-WIDE WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS IT DOES SHIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THOUGH...MEAN BL TEMPS DO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS AND NE VT...BUT
SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A DUSTING TO AROUND AN INCH.

FRONT CLEARS THE AREA TO THE EAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING
PRECIP ACROSS NE VT ENDING BY MID-DAY. 850-925MB TEMPS CRASH BACK
BELOW 0C ON COLD NW FLOW SO DON`T EXPECT HIGHS SATURDAY TO GET
OUT OF THE 40S...MAYBE TOUCH 50 IN THE VALLEYS IF WE`RE LUCKY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COLD NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 20S EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 307 PM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE SW WITH AN
INFLUX OF WARM AIR. UPPER LVL ENERGY WILL APPROACH THE NORTH
COUNTRY MONDAY...INCREASING THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY
NIGHT...DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WHICH WILL BRING A GREATER THREAT
FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO NEAR NORMAL. DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD... AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
SATELLITE LOOP THROUGH 2330Z THURSDAY SHOWING MAINLY HIGH THIN
CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECTING SOME SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN 14Z-17Z FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z
SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR
SHOWERS WITH WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE.

00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE.

06Z MONDAY ONWARD...MAINLY VFR WITH SCT MVFR SHOWERS AS
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...RJS/LAHIFF/NEILES
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...KGM
AVIATION...WGH/KGM





 
 
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