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  Friday May 6, 2016

Forecast Discussion for BTV NWS Office
000
FXUS61 KBTV 060525
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
125 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW-EVOLVING UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAJOR DRIVER OF NORTH COUNTRY
WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERCAST SKIES TRANSITION TO VARIABLE
CLOUDS TONIGHT. MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND, WITH A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 125 AM EDT FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO SKY
COVER NEEDED. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
BUT SOME MID/HIGH CIRRUS HAS BEGUN TO STREAM IN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH, MAINLY FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS SHOW THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR THE REGION TO THE NORTH
WITHIN A FEW HOURS, SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH IMPACT OTHER THAN TO KEEP
TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST OVER VERMONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR TODAY...
UPPER LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY.
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIST FRIDAY - AGAIN, WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE SOUTH - THOUGH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHWARD SHOULD
SEE CLOUDS FILL BACK IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. I`VE SHOWN SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH SCANT DYNAMICAL FORCING AT PLAY
TOMORROW, ANY SHOWERS WOULD TEND TO BE DRIVEN BY ANY DIURNAL
HEATING/INSTABILITY. 925 MB TEMPS OF +11 TO +13C WOULD SUPPORT
WARMER HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY - IN FACT THE 12Z METMOS GOES FOR 70 AT
BURLINGTON. I`VE LEANED A BIT COOLER AS SUNSHINE LATER IN THE DAY
SHOULD GO TO PRODUCE CUMULUS CLOUD AND LIMIT STRONGER HEATING.
STILL, LOOKING AT MORE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT THURSDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
ROTATE AROUND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON SATURDAY. THOSE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS OF SOME
INSTABILITY BUT THE CONSENSUS IS STILL FAIRLY WEEK. BASED ON SOME
OF THE SREF PROB`S MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
RANGED FROM 25 - 500 J/KG WITH THE MEANS CLOSER 100-250 J/KG.
GIVEN THAT RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES I FELT MORE COMFORTABLE WAITING
ANOTHER SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A BIT MORE
DYNAMICAL FORCING HOWEVER THE CANADIAN IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE.
EXPECT THAT TEMPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SATURDAY`S CLOUD COVER. IF
THERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SOME AREAS COULD WARM INTO THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70. HOWEVER IF WE REMAIN UNDER CLOUD COVER EXPECT MORE
IN THE RANGE OF UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT THURSDAY... A MORE POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE AND BRING
ORGANIZED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT
AMONGST THE MODELS AND SO I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF HIGH CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE NORTH COUNTRY SUNDAY MORNING SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION RETURNS. THAT LEADS TO MAX
TEMPS ON SUNDAY ONLY BEING IN THE MID 50S WHICH IS NEARLY 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE TO START THE WEEK WILL
BE HOW GUSTY THE WINDS ARE ON MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A 70-80KT
500MB JET, AND CORRESPONDING 40-50KT JET AT 700MB, THAT TRACKS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THIS IS
A BIT OF DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE OF HOW CLOSE IT IS
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH THE GFS FURTHER NORTH AND THE ECMWF
FURTHER SOUTH. GIVEN THE SPREAD I DID SHOW AN INCREASE IN BOTH
WINDS AND GUSTS FOR MONDAY BUT CURRENTLY NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE ONLY TERMINAL STILL REPORTING
MVFR CIGS BEING KMPV. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT EXPECT
ALL SITES TO BE VFR (MPV WITHIN AN HOUR OR SO) BUT WE`LL SEE SOME
MID/HIGH CIRRUS STREAM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNRISE. FOR FRIDAY, WE`LL START GENERALLY SKC
TO A FEW CIRRUS WITH A SCT-BKN MID DECK DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR KRUT.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
06Z SAT - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS.
00Z SUN - 06Z MON: MVFR IN FRONTAL SHOWERS.
06Z MON - 00Z WED: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS TUESDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...DEAL
AVIATION...LAHIFF

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion


 
 
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