000
FXUS61 KBTV 080023
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
723 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SLIDES EAST OF THE NORTH COUNTRY
TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH LITTLE
FANFARE OTHER THAN A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO POSSIBLY A FEW LOW 40S...THEN TREND
SLIGHTLY COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY BACK INTO THE MID 20S
TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 723 PM EST FRIDAY...GOING FORECAST IN REAL GOOD SHAPE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING
SYSTEM UPSTREAM AND MAYBE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE.
THIS ALL COVERED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST. THE SAME HOLDS TRUE
FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TOMORROW
WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS MOISTURE PROFILES AND DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FOR PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED. AS I MENTIONED ABOVE...ANTECEDENT
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP LIMIT PRECIP AMOUNTS
SO THINKING NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW FLURRIES/SPRINKLES IN THE
VALLEYS...AND SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH. HIGHS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN VERY SEASONABLE...AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (IMAGINE THAT) IN THE MID 30S TO PERHAPS A
FEW LOWER 40S.

QUIETER AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION AND IS REPLACED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE THE RULE
WITH LOWS 5 TO 15 ABOVE...AND HIGHS SUNDAY JUST A SMIDGE BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES ON
THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST...BUT NOTHING IN THE VALLEYS.

WEATHER BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN GOING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO START
THE WORK WEEK AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION ON NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS IS LOOKING TO BE OUR BEST SHOT AT
ANY REAL ACCUMULATING PRECIP OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLY BEHIND IT GOING INTO THE LATER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK. MORE ON THAT BELOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 316 PM EST FRIDAY...SEVERAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO CONTEND WITH
DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A PAIR OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
SYSTEM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WEAK LOW TRACKS NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED
WARM/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE HIGHEST
POPS PREFERRED (AROUND 50 PERCENT). ANY ACCUMULATIONS MINOR
HOWEVER...AND MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT ABOVE FREEZING WITH NEAR
SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S. A TRAILING DISTURBANCE
IN THE FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED OF SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
AGAIN...QPF NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AND TEMPS TUESDAY WILL BE
MARGINAL FOR SNOW/RAIN WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 30S TO LOWER
40S. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR DECREASED CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AND MAYBE SOME CLEARING.

PROBLEM PART OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LATER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE POTENTIAL COASTAL SYSTEM. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. STILL A WIDE DIFFERENCE IN SOLUTIONS OFFERED
BY GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...SOUTH OF THE
40N 70W BENCHMARK WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN BULK OF
SNOW SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
TRACKING JUST INSIDE OF THE BENCHMARK...WITH PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGING FROM LESS THAN 0.25
INCHES SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY TO AS MUCH AS 1.25 INCHES SOUTH-
CENTRAL VERMONT. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST LOW CENTER WOULD PASS
VERY CLOSE TO 40N 70W. WITH SUCH A WIDE DISPARITY IN SOLUTIONS
OFFERED...HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GONE WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW. STAY TUNED.

DRIER CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TO THE NORTH COUNTRY THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AS SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPS. TEMPS BY END OF PERIOD FALL BACK TO BELOW NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS AND HIGHS
FRIDAY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z BEFORE A TREND
TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND VERMONT BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME...BUT VFR VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 12Z AND 16Z...WINDS WILL BECOME WEST
AND NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...VFR UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...MVFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.

00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN SNOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...EVENSON/RJS