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  Friday July 25, 2014

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250758
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER TODAY
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH AND
CROSS THE REGION SATRUDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
CONTINUES INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...ANOTHER IDEAL MID-SUMMER DAY ON TAP FOR
THE AREA WITH SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGED ACROSS THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CLOUDS NORTH AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY...A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AND CAPPING NEAR 500 MB SUGGEST
PCPN CHANCES ESSENTIALLY NIL...BUT CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
LATE DAY ISOLD SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR NRN MTNS.
925-850 MB THERMAL PROGS SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SOME 4 TO 7 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY UNDER A LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW...SO
READINGS GENERALLY IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE LOOK ON TRACK...WARMEST
IN THE BROADER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 358 AM EDT FRIDAY...CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SCT HIGH CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP READINGS A
TAD MILDER THAN THIS MORNING...MAINLY 50S.

PTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND FAIRLY ROBUST MID LEVEL ENERGY APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. A
BLEND OF AVBL GUIDANCE/QPF SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ACROSS NRN NY LATER IN THE DAY WITH OUR VT COUNTIES
REMAINING LARGELY DRY. HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER...77 TO 83.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFOREMENTIONED ENERGY TRAVERSES THE
REGION WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND MORE SOLID CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN TIMING OF PRIMARY FEATURE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
AND THE PROBABILITY FOR A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
AROUND THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ANY STORMS SHOULD BE GARDEN VARIETY
/NON-SEVERE. SOLID 45-65% POPS WILL BE CARRIED DURING THESE
PERIODS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NOT LOOKING AT A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS
WITH AT LEAST SOME GOOD STRETCHES DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED AMONG
THE SHOWERS. LOWS MILDER WITH CLOUDS AND SUBSEQUENT MOISTURE
RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT (55 TO 65)...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY 75 TO 80
OR SO ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 AM EDT FRIDAY...LITTLE CHANGE OFFERED BY TODAY`S
00Z/25TH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE ON THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE
PATTERN. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CONUS REGIME WELL SPECIFIED WITH
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE HEAT
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SUBTLE
TIMING AND ORIENTATION DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY ALSO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY. THERE PROBABLY WILL BE
PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STORMS WITH CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. HOWEVER FEEL
THAT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING BECOMING INCREASINGLY ABSENT INTO THE
MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK THAT ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
BECOME MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN.

THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. RELATIVELY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TITLED AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH WEAK SFC LOW
FOCUSING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUPERBLEND GIVES
LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH COUNTRY MONDAY WHICH SEEMED
REASONABLE. DESPITE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE MECHANISM FOR ASCENT -
PROGGED THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACE DOESN`T LOOK AS
FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER INSTABILITY LIMITED
BY WHAT SHOULD BE LEFTOVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM SUNDAY. WEAK SFC
LOW MOVES INTO MAINE MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. MID-LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT
SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME WED-THU WITH POPS THIS PERIOD (CHANCE
TOWARD NORTHERN NEW YORK/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VT) MORE OR LESS TO
COVER WHAT SHOULD BE SHOWERS/STORMS DRIVEN BY DIURNAL CYCLE AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OFF NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (HIGHS
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80/LOWS 50S TO LOW 60S). COMBINATION OF COOLING
THERMAL PROFILES - 850MB TEMPS AROUND +9 TO +11C - AND AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEN ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO TREND BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AT
MPV AND SLK THROUGH 12Z...TRENDING VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND LIGHT TO CALM/DECOUPLED WINDS. SLK AND MPV HAVE ALREADY
REACHED THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPS AND APPEARS THAT DRIER AIR ADVECTION
HAS SLOWED...SO WOULD THINK FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY SOON AT
BOTH SITES. 10-15 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK BUT MOSTLY ABOVE
PROGGED RADIATION INVERSION SO DON`T THINK THIS WILL LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT.

VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH FEW-SCT CU
ESPECIALLY VICINITY MOUNTAINS. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6-10KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT MSS DURING THE DAY WITH
GUSTS DROPPING OFF THRU EVENING.

OUTLOOK 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

06Z SAT - 00Z SUN...VFR. PERHAPS A TOUCH OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT MPV
AND/OR SLK.

00Z SUN ONWARD...TRENDING INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED. THOUGH MOSTLY
VFR...PERIODIC SHOWERS/STORMS WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMG
NEAR TERM...JMG
SHORT TERM...JMG
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...BANACOS/LOCONTO





 
 
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