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  Friday April 25, 2014

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 250014
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
814 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY WILL START WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY...BUT BELOW NORMAL
WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT THURSDAY...CLOUDS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN VERMONT THIS EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT
FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST
IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN INPUTTING LATEST OBSERVATIONS INTO
GRIDS...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT SLACKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WL SHIFT INTO
THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TRRN DRIVEN
WINDS DEVELOPING. RAP SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW SOME ENHANCED RH AROUND
800MB...BUT THINKING ANY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW AND
THIS MOISTURE WL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY SUNSET. GUIDANCE IS VERY
COLD WITH SLK MAV/MET SHOWING READINGS OF 17/18...AND AROUND 29F
FOR BTV. WL TREND A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER...BUT GIVEN VERY LOW SFC
DWPTS AND LIGHT WINDS...THINKING VALUES WL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
10S COLDER MTN VALLEYS/NEK TO M/U 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM EDT THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LVL RIDGE ACRS THE NE CONUS WL QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND BY 00Z SATURDAY...AS PROGRESSIVE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTS ACRS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES. DEEP DRY LAYER AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR TRENDS WL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT MID/UPPER LVL RH INCREASES AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE.
BEST 850 TO 700MB OMEGA FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED RIBBON OF 850 TO
500MB RH >80% ARRIVES AFT 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP FRIDAY DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS RANGE FROM 0C NEK TO 4C SOUTHWEST
SLV...RESULTING IN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE L/M 50S NEK/MTNS TO L60S
SLV AND WARMER/UHI AREAS OF THE CPV.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...850 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY OVERSPREADS THE
FA WITH MODEST UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH 5H VORT AND DEVELOPMENT OF
MID/UPPER LVL TROF. STILL FEEL INITIAL 5H VORT AND MOISTURE WL
DISSIPATE ACRS OUR CWA ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
FALLING AS MOSTLY VIRGA...ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY DRY LVLLS. BETTER
DYNAMICS AND DEEPER RH ARRIVES ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED 5H/7H
CIRCULATION BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY...WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ANTICIPATED. HAVE NOTED POCKETS OF COOLER PROGGED 85H TEMPS <0C
ACRS CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT/NEK ON SATURDAY MORNING...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME WET SNOW IN THE MTN SUMMITS. COLD POOL ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH CLOSED SYSTEM MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON
SATURDAY...WITH COOLING PROFILES ALOFT ANTICIPATED. THIS COMBINED
WITH SOME LIMITED SFC HEATING WL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY
FOR MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. BOTTOM LINE SAT WL BE COOL
AND DAMP WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS LIKELY. TOTAL QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10 AND 0.50 OF AN INCH.
TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THE U30S/M40S NEK/MTNS TO M40S/L50S VALLEYS ON
SAT.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CLOSED MID/UPPER LVL CIRCULATION CONTS TO DEEPEN AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED S/W`S INTERACT WITH THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SYSTEM. THIS WL SLOW OVERALL MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM DOWN WITH IT
BECOMING STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE BY SAT NIGHT...AND
NUMEROUS RIBBONS OF MOISTURE ROTATING ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA.
THIS COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLW WL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. GIVEN THE DEEPENING COLD POOL ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED COOLING OF LLVL THERMAL PROFILES...THINKING SNOW LEVELS
WL DROP TO AROUND 2000 FT BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE LIGHT. TEMPS WITH CLOUDS/WIND AND PRECIP WL HOLD MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO NEAR 40F...FAIRLY UNIFORMED ACRS OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 336 PM EDT THURSDAY...EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO
LOOKS VERY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A
DEVELOPING OMEGA BLOCK LATE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER LOW LOW WHICH
WILL HAVE BROUGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
YET COOL AND BRISK END TO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL RUN ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. AS THE LOW
SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT...OMEGA BLOCK SETUPS UP
ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION EASTWARD AND SOME
SLIGHT MODIFICATION TO THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME...THE FORECAST DOES LOOK GENERALLY DRY FOR THE NORTH
COUNTRY...BUT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ALL THE ABOVE SAID
FEATURES...THINGS COULD CHANGE. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
BASED ON RIDGE/LOW PLACEMENTS...BUT IN GENERAL LOOK TO RUN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY...SIGNS ARE THAT THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ROCKIES LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
THE GREAT LAKES RENEWING CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR TO PREVAIL ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. UNDER
MOSTLY SKC CONDITIONS TONIGHT...MAIN AVIATION CHALLENGE WILL BE
TIMING THE END OF GUSTS. THAT SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AT RUT AS SFC WINDS DROP OFF THIS
EVENING...THOUGH I`VE LEFT OUT MENTION IN THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT
CONDITIONS (RECENT ALY VWP SHOWING NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30
KTS AT 2-3KFT) AND EXPECTATION THAT LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LOWER
OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID-TO HIGH CLOUDS THRU THE DAY TRENDING
LOWEST FOR THE NY TAF SITES WITH APPROACHING SFC WARM FRONT. ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS FEATURE WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY SO EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER TO EAST/SOUTHEAST 5-10 KTS LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

00Z SAT THRU 00Z MON...MIX OF MVFR/VFR WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW PASSAGE.

00Z MON THRU 00Z TUE...MVFR TRENDING TO VFR AS UPPER LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION.

00Z TUE THRU 00Z WED...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS OF 730 PM EDT THURSDAY...RED FLAG WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL VERMONT AND EASTERN ESSEX
COUNTY NEW YORK WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH GOOD RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERY
TONIGHT...ALLEVIATING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ANOTHER DRY DAY
FRIDAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30
PERCENT...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...RJS/TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF/LOCONTO
FIRE WEATHER...RJS






 
 
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