000
FXUS61 KBTV 291644
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC INTO SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO
WILL SWEEP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY BRINGING
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. CONDITIONS
TREND COOLER AND CONSIDERABLY LESS HUMID FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S WILL MAKE FOR
PLEASANT DAYS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1047 AM EDT THURSDAY...FORECAST UPDATE LATE THIS MORNING TO
ADJUST CLOUDS TEMPS AND WIND. WIND SHIFT TO NW HAS HAPPENED AS
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENED ENOUGH TO MIX DOWN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS ONLY 20 KTS OR SO. WSR-88D VAD WINDS FROM KCXX
SHOW 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET...AS DOES
LATEST RUC BUFKIT SOUNDING.

TEMPS STRUGGLING AGAINST COLD ADVECTION COMPONENT OF THE NW
WINDS...WITH TEMP AT KBTV ACTUALLY FALLING A DEGREE BETWEEN 9 AND
10 AM. BAND OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO MOVE ACROSS AREA TODAY
HOWEVER...MAKING FOR A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST BALANCING SUNSHINE
AGAINST COLD ADVECTION. DROPPED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS
AS DON`T BELIEVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN AROUND. VIS SAT
SHOWING QUITE A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC/SE
ONTARIO MOVING SOUTH...AND SHOULD GET IN TO NORTHERN VT THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF CLOUD DECK AND CU POPPING IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP LIMIT WARMING.

POPS...LEFT THEM ALONE...WITH SLGT CHC IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DRY VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT THURSDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT MAINTAINING SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS. CLOUDS COMBINED WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS SHOULD LIMIT FOG
POTL TO JUST THE MOST FAVORED VALLEYS OF CENTRAL/ERN VT FOR A FEW
HRS NEAR SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...LIGHT NW WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW 50S AND EVEN A FEW UPR 40S. LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TONIGHT. NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER FRIDAY-
SATURDAY WITH NW MID-LVL FLOW CONTINUING AND SFC ANTICYCLONE
SHIFTING EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES EWD CRESTING ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY AT 12Z SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SATURDAY EVENING. AIR MASS WILL FEEL A BIT CRISP/FALL-LIKE WITH
AFTN DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S AND DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

RADIATIONAL COOLING COULD BE QUITE GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING
TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPR 40S MOST AREAS WITH ISOLD UPR 30S IN
THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND FAR NERN VT. NOTING 36F/37F LOWS IN THE
MAV/MET FOR KSLK SAT MORNING AND ALSO A 39F AT WHITEFIELD NH...WHICH
IS USUALLY A GOOD INDICATOR FOR THE COLDER SPOTS IN NERN VT. SHOULD
BE INTERESTING TO WATCH. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME NOCTURNAL FOG
FORMATION FOR THE PRE-DAWN HRS SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...DON/T FORESEE
ANY SIG WX WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 252 AM EDT THURSDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EWD INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH 00Z GFS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
BROAD - BUT RELATIVELY WEAK - UPR TROUGH SHIFTING EWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NY/PA. BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE ALONG
OUR SRN TIER OF COUNTIES...OR FURTHER SOUTH...SO WILL LIMIT TO A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ATTM. PER 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE...NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSSIBLY MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE 00Z GFS OPERATIONAL RUN. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN/OPERATIONAL GFS.
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW PATTERN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OF THE U.S...SO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOBILE
WX FEATURES A BIT HIGHER THAN NORMAL. HAVE STAYED RELATIVELY CLOSE
TO MEX-MOS NUMBERS FOR TEMPS...WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THRU FORECAST PERIOD W/ SCT-
BKN035-050 TIL 00Z FRI...THEN FEW-SCT030-040. SOME MVFR FG FOR
SLK/MPV FROM 08Z TO 13Z. WNW WINDS 10-15KTS THRU 00Z FRI...THEN
BECM LGT/VAR THRU 11Z-12Z THEN BECM NNW-NNE 5-10KTS.

OUTLOOK 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BANACOS
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...JN/MBH

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion