Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
  Wednesday August 24, 2016


NWS Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS61 KBTV 240723

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
323 AM EDT Wed Aug 24 2016

High pressure moving offshore south of New England will allow for
light south winds today with temperatures moderating into the mid
to upper 80s for afternoon highs. Humidity will also increase to
moderate levels. A weak frontal system approaching from the Great
Lakes will bring the next chance of showers Thursday afternoon
into Friday morning. Once this frontal system passes to the east,
will see a return to pleasantly mild and dry weather late Friday
and through the upcoming weekend.


As of 134 AM EDT Wednesday...Strong high pressure centered near
the NJ coast this morning will provide another pleasant day to the
North Country. 850mb temps moderate to +16C this afternoon as
center of ridge shifts eastward south of New England, and
S-SSW winds allow for low-level warm advection. Should yield
afternoon highs in the mid-upr 80s most sections. Will also see
low level moisture increase a bit, with 2-m dewpoints rising into
the low 60s by late afternoon. Broad subsidence will keep skies
mostly sunny with just a few passing thin cirrus and shallow
cumulus clouds dotting the higher terrain.

Mid-level ridge breaks down a bit overnight as shortwave trough
associated with ongoing convection across MN/WI shifts eastward.
Should yield an increase in mid-level clouds from west to east late
tonight, with a slight chance of a shower across nrn NY toward
daybreak (20 PoP). Continued south-southwest boundary layer flow
will keep temps warm overnight, with early AM lows in the mid 60s
for the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. More sheltered
locations will see lows in the upr 50s to lower 60s.


As of 301 AM EDT Wednesday...Timing of energy and associated
moisture continues to be the challenge in developing fast westerly
flow aloft. Models continue to show system coming in several
different pieces...making the exact window for predicting the
highest pops difficult. Initial 5h vort over the northern plains
will shear out in flow aloft and weaken across our region on
Thursday morning. This energy...along with increasing 850 to
500mb moisture will result in chance pops across northern NY. This
feature will quick exit our region by 18z...before more energy and
moisture arrives around 00z Friday. Higher surface dewpoints from
earlier showers...along with surface heating will produce surface
based CAPE values up to 800 J/kg across the Saint Lawrence Valley
around 00z. Have mention chance of thunder with likely rain
showers for the combination of instability and dynamics. The
actual surface boundary crosses northern NY overnight and is
located in the Champlain Valley on Friday morning. Will continue
to mention chc to likely pops overnight Thursday into
Friday...before tapering from west to east by Friday afternoon.

I realize we will have 12 to 18 hours of pops for only a 2 to 4
hour window of precip...but timing of multiple short waves in fast
flow aloft is difficult. PWS surge to 1.75 ahead of
boundary...supporting some isolated heavier downpours... especially
in the stronger convective elements over northern NY/VT on
Thursday evening/night. Still thinking qpf will range between 0.25
and 0.75...with some downslope on breezy 850mb southwest winds of
35 to 40 knots. These winds and pressure analysis support some
localized surface gusts to 30 mph across the saint lawrence and
champlain valleys on Thursday afternoon/evening. These winds shift
to the west and much drier air arrives on friday afternoon...with
cooler temperatures by the weekend. Progged 925mb temps between
22-24c...support highs well into the 80s on Thursday... with maybe
a spot 90 in the warmer valleys...expecting clouds to limit
surface heating some. Temps will be slightly cooler on
Friday...behind boundary.


As of 301 AM EDT Wednesday...1026mb surface high pressure will
build into the north country on saturday and continue for sunday.
This will result in plenty of sunshine with mild days and cool
nights. Given the very dry profiles...expect large diurnal swings
in the temps from mid 40s to lower 50s to mid 70s to lower 80s.
Next system in the fast westerly flow aloft approaches our region
late sunday night into monday with a chance of showers. Progged
instability parameters are minimal so no mention of thunder thru
16z monday. Better surface heating and weak surface boundary on
Monday afternoon may produce a few rumbles of thunder. Will
mention chance pops with best chance of thunder based on surface
based cape values of 500 j/kg will be over central/eastern vt.
Progged 850mb temps range between 12-14c for monday into
tuesday...supporting highs mid 70s mountains to lower 80s valleys
with lows mainly in the 50s to lower 60s depending upon elevation.


.AVIATION /07Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 12Z Thursday...Mainly VFR through the period with SKC-
SCT250. May see intervals of MVFR 3-4SM BR MPV 08-11Z, but thin
high clouds and 3kt AGL winds 20-25kts should create enough
mixing to preclude any dense fog formation early this morning.
Light and variable winds early this morning, becoming south 6-10kt
during the daylight hours, and locally SE with a lake breeze at
PBG. Will see increasing mid-clouds (SCT-BKN100) toward daybreak
Thursday with a slight chance of a shower at KMSS toward 12Z Thu.

NOTE: Rutland AWOS (RUT) is not operating. Because of the lack of
disseminated observations, we continue our suspension of
amendments for the RUT TAF. Once the communication problem has
been resolved, and we again get routine observations automatically
transmitted, we will lift that restriction.

Outlook 12Z Thursday through Sunday...

12Z Thu - 00Z Sat...VFR/MVFR with chance of showers and
thunderstorms later Thursday afternoon and evening, with scattered
showers continuing into Thursday night. May see morning -SHRA
central/ern VT Friday morning, otherwise generally drying out
Friday with mainly VFR conditions and W-NW winds.

00Z Sat onward...VFR with building high pressure.


As of 0130 AM EDT Wednesday...The AWOS (automated weather
observing system) at the Rutland-Southern Vermont Regional Airport
(KRUT) remains out of service at this time. The FAA has advised us
that a new computer is on order to fix the problem at the KRUT
AWOS. There remains no estimated return to service at this time.




NEAR TERM...Banacos

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