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  Friday July 29, 2016

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 290754
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
354 AM EDT Fri Jul 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary front along the international border will
settle southward across the North Country during the daylight
hours today. This front combined with an upper level disturbance
across southern New England will bring a chance of showers, mainly
across south-central portions of Vermont. Elsewhere, light north
winds will usher in drier air from Ontario and Quebec, with skies
becoming partly to mostly sunny across Northern New York and
Vermont this afternoon. Canadian high pressure will bring dry
weather tonight through Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday
will range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with pleasantly low
humidity levels. The next upper level disturbance approaching from
the Great Lakes will bring the next chance for showers for Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 211 AM EDT Friday...Surface frontal bndry along the
international border marked primarily by higher surface pressures
across swrn Quebec and sern Ontario will shift slowly southward
during the daylight hours today reaching srn VT by 00z this
evening. Separate mid-level shortwave trough across
central/e-central NY is associated with widespread light rain from
Albany southward and southeastward across SERN NY and srn New
England. Have seen a few isold showers across n-central VT in
deformation zone, and can`t rule out isold showers/sprinkles this
morning in spots. As sfc front moves south, will see chance for
scattered showers across Rutland/Windsor counties late this
morning into early afternoon. Up to 0.10" rainfall possible. Drier
air moving in from Quebec/Ontario and passage of mid-level trough
to our south will generally result in decreasing cloud cover
across nrn NY and nrn VT, especially as we head into the afternoon
hours. Temperatures are starting mild (mid-upr 60s) in most spots
early this morning with cloud cover in place, so should see highs
in the low-mid 80s with good insolational heating this aftn. 2-m
dewpoints in the low-mid 60s will begin to fall into the mid-upr
50s across nrn half of the forecast area this afternoon, with
north winds increasing to around 10 mph.

Generally quiet conditions tonight with light N-NW winds and
mostly clear skies. Should see min temps a bit cooler than recent
days with advection of lower dewpoints/clear skies/good radiative
cooling. Lows mainly in the 50s. May see some patchy fog develop
in the favored river valleys of central and eastern VT, and also
across the valley locations within the northern Adirondack region.

Pleasant conditions for Saturday with weak surface high pressure
across southern Quebec providing light north winds and sfc
dewpoints in the low-mid 50s. The 00Z GFS indicates 850mb
temperatures of +11 to +12C, which should translate to afternoon
highs in the upr 70s to lower 80s with nearly full sun. PoPs nil.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Friday...A slow moving upper level trough of low
pressure will gradually move into the region. We should start to
see increasing chances of showers after midnight Saturday night
and especially on Sunday. The clouds and showers will also hold
down high temperatures Sunday with readings in the 70s to around
80. Areas with the best chance for seeing precipitation will be
over the northern Adirondacks of New York and the central and
southern sections of Vermont.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 354 AM EDT Friday...Trends in the data suggest upper trough
moving into the region Saturday night into Sunday will be slow to
clear the region and will not exit until late Monday into Tuesday.
Thus looking at a continuation of the showers Sunday night through
Monday before gradually tapering off from west to east Monday
night into Tuesday. Clouds...precipitation... and cooler 925 mb
flow suggest highs only in the 70s on Monday. A warming trend will
begin on Tuesday as clouds and precipitation move out of the
area...but we will still be in northwest flow aloft. Should be at
seasonal normals on Tuesday then better warming for Wednesday and
Thursday with highs getting into the 80s for much of the area. Dry
weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Areas of LIFR fog/ceilings will continue
through 12Z at SLK/MSS/RUT/MPV and adjacent areas mainly away from
the Champlain Valley. Will generally see a return to VFR
conditions with clearing skies mid-late morning from NW-SE as a
front settles southward across the area. This front may bring
ISOLD/SCT light showers across s-central VT/KRUT late morning into
the aftn, with dry weather elsewhere. Light and variable winds
generally becoming N 5-10 kts late morning through afternoon.
Mostly clear with light winds tonight...may lead to localized LIFR
radiation fog MSS/SLK/MPV after 06Z Saturday.

Outlook 12z Saturday through Tuesday...VFR/mainly clear Saturday
with light winds. This will be followed by periods of showers
Sunday into Monday with slow moving upper trough moving ewd from
the Great Lakes. May see intervals of MVFR conditions SUN-MON.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Banacos
NEAR TERM...Banacos
SHORT TERM...Evenson
LONG TERM...Evenson
AVIATION...Banacos


 
 
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