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  Tuesday March 28, 2017

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 28 08:37:01 UTC 2017

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 28 08:37:01 UTC 2017.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 28 08:37:01 UTC 2017.

SPC Mar 28, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE CONCHO
VALLEY AREA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING LARGE
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms are forecast Tuesday and Tuesday
night across the southern Plains.  A few strong to severe storms are
also possible over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

...Synopsis...
A large mid- and upper-level trough/low initially centered over the
Four Corners states will move eastward across the southern Rockies
during the day, gradually emerging into western portions of the
southern Plains through the afternoon and evening.  Meanwhile, a
much weaker short-wave trough crossing the central Appalachians and
vicinity early in the period will shift toward/off the middle and
southern Atlantic coasts through the daytime hours.

At the surface, a weak low will cross the Virginia/North Carolina
vicinity through the day.  Over the southern Plains, a low is
forecast to move out of eastern New Mexico into/across the high
Plains of Texas through the afternoon and evening.  A dryline will
mix very slowly eastward across west Texas through the day -- and
should be overtaken by a faster-moving Pacific cold front during the
evening/overnight.  Meanwhile, a west-to-east warm front is forecast
to be lifting gradually northward across Texas through the day,
likely shifting northward into Oklahoma during the evening/overnight
as low-level flow strengthens.  This surface system and the
associated upper low/trough will support widespread convection and
enhanced severe weather risk across much of Texas and northward into
Oklahoma -- particularly during the late afternoon and evening
hours.

...The southern Plains...
Persistent southerly low-level flow ahead of the advancing storm
system will allow moistening of the boundary layer through the day,
along with gradual northward shift of the west-to-east warm front
across Texas with time.  As a dryline mixes slowly eastward across
the South Plains and Transpecos region, initiation of storms is
forecast by mid to late afternoon -- both along the dryline and
perhaps, in a more isolated manner, northwestward into portions of
the Texas Panhandle.

As the storms initiate within a moderately unstable environment,
strengthening flow aloft -- veering from southeasterly at the
surface to south-southwesterly aloft -- updrafts will acquire
rotation and become capable of producing very large hail and locally
damaging gusts.  Additionally, initial cellular mode suggests
potential for a few tornadoes -- particularly across western North
Texas where a strong tornado will be possible.

As storms mature, upscale growth into lines (with bowing segments)
is expected -- due to both very strong large-scale ascent and
meridional flow aloft roughly parallel to the dryline/developing
cells.  The band of storms should accelerate across north Texas and
into southern/central Oklahoma during the evening, along with
attendant risks for damaging winds and hail, and possibly an
additional tornado or two.

Meanwhile, additional storm development is expected during the
evening farther southwest along the advancing Pacific front.  As
this front merges with the dryline, the band of storms may elongate
both northward and southward, with northern portions of the band
possibly bringing a second round of storms/possible severe weather
to parts of Oklahoma and north Texas.  Farther south, the convection
should advance east across much of central Texas through the evening
and overnight along with risk for hail and locally damaging winds.

...The Virginia/North Carolina vicinity...
Multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
to move across the VA/NC vicinity during the first half of the
period, as the upper system moves across the area.  Due to
clouds/ongoing precipitation as ascent spreads eastward across the
area relatively early in the diurnal cycle, destabilization is
likely to remain somewhat subdued.  This -- in conjunction with the
relative weakness of the system -- suggests overall severe risk
should remain tempered.  As such, will maintain only MRGL risk for
wind/hail with isolated stronger cells at this time.  Risk should
diminish through late afternoon, and end by evening as the system
moves offshore.

..Goss/Cohen.. 03/28/2017

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SPC Mar 28, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT OVER MUCH OF AR...NORTHWEST LA...AND NORTHEAST
TX....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX INTO
KS AND MO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday from parts of east
Texas and eastern Oklahoma into the lower and middle Mississippi
Valley.

The strong shortwave trough currently digging into the southwest
states will move across the southern Plains on Tuesday and affect
the lower MS Valley on Wednesday.  Widespread thunderstorms are
expected across TX Tuesday night, but model solutions indicate that
this activity will diminish Wednesday morning over east TX and
southeast OK.  This will allow the air mass in this region to
recover, with a corridor of moderate instability developing ahead of
the surface dryline/cold front.  Thunderstorms will re-develop along
the boundary during the afternoon and track northeastward across
parts of LA/AR during the evening/night.  The NAM/GFS solutions are
consistent in developing a potent low-level jet that moves from
southeast TX into southern AR after dark.  The resulting forecast
soundings would support a risk of supercells and bowing structures
producing tornadoes (possibly strong), as well as large hail and
damaging winds.  Portions of the region may need upgraded to MDT
risk in later updates if model solutions continue to support this
scenario.

..Hart.. 03/28/2017

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SPC Mar 28, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
WEST TN...EASTERN AR...AND NORTHERN MS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...AND INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.

...Lower/Mid MS Valley into TN Valley...
A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the
southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday. 
Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead
of the cold front/dryline over AR/LA and track eastward into MS/TN. 
Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong CAPE ahead of
the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe
storms.  Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of
main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are
quite diverse.  Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides
sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern
AR, and northern MS to an ENH risk for Thursday.

..Hart.. 03/28/2017

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SPC Mar 28, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day4/Fri - Southeast states
The same upper trough that will affect the southern plains and MS
Valley this week will progress into the southeast states on Friday. 
Model guidance agrees on moving the main trough axis across parts of
GA/SC and north FL during peak heating, where dewpoints in the lower
60s will promote sufficient instability for a risk of severe storms.
 Forecast soundings also show favorable winds aloft for storm
organization and maintenance.

...Day5/Sat - Western OK/TX...
Moisture will stream back northwestward ahead of the next upper
system on Saturday.  Most model solutions agree on dryline
development during the afternoon over parts of western OK into
west-central TX, providing the focus for scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms.  The UKMET/GEM indicate a cold front sagging into the
region, lessening confidence in the risk over northwest OK and
southwest KS.

...Day6/Sun - TX/LA...
The same upper trough from day5 will continue to deepen over the
southern High Plains, with rich gulf moisture in place across
central and southeast TX.  Model solutions begin to diverge on the
details of the surface features at this range, but the combination
of strong CAPE and ample moisture beneath favorably strong cyclonic
flow aloft provides sufficient confidence in a 15% probability area.

...Day7/Mon and Day8/Tue...
Beyond Day6, model consistency is too low to warrant outlook areas
over the southern states.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NM AND WEST
TX...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY AND VICINITY...

...Synopsis...
A strong midlevel cyclone is forecast to track from the Southwest
States to the southern High Plains. As this occurs, surface low
pressure will deepen over the southern High Plains, while an
attendant dryline sharpens. Strong tropospheric flow surrounding the
cyclone will overlie the relatively deeper boundary layer and dry
surface conditions west of the dryline.

...Portions of the Southwest States to the southern High Plains...
Across the Critical area covering portions of southern NM and west
TX, downslope trajectories extending off the southern Rockies and
related warming/drying will allow RH to fall to 10-15 percent to the
west of the dryline. Deep mixing into the strong tropospheric flow
will support southwesterly to westerly winds of 20-25 mph with
higher gusts.

A separate Critical area is in effect for portions of the lower CO
River Valley and vicinity in areas where dry fuels exist. A belt of
northerly/north-northwesterly winds within the western semicircle of
the cyclone will be enhanced via flow channeling in the low levels.
As a result, wind speeds of 20-25 mph with higher gusts are
expected. Deep subsidence over this part of the cyclone and related
drying will be manifest at the surface as minimum RH in the upper
single digits.

An Elevated area is in effect for locations between/surrounding the
Critical areas. Strong winds are anticipated from parts of southeast
AZ into southwest NM, though comparatively cooler temperatures and
higher RH should mitigate the overall fire-weather risk in these
areas.

..Cohen.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TX...

...Synopsis...
A deep midlevel cyclone and attendant surface cyclone are forecast
to move across portions of the South-Central States. A deep/dry
boundary layer west of a merged Pacific front/dryline, extending to
the south of the surface cyclone, will linger across southwest TX.
More substantial cold advection will occur behind a stronger cold
front advancing southward across the southern High Plains.

...Portions of the Southwest States to southwest TX...
Across the Critical area encompassing portions of southwest TX,
downslope trajectories emanating from the higher terrain of
northwest Mexico will support warming/drying of the boundary layer.
Minimum RH around 8-15 percent is expected. As vertical mixing
diurnally strengthens amid enhanced flow aloft surrounding the deep
midlevel cyclone, westerly to west-northwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph are forecast to combine with the aforementioned low RH
amid dry fuels. Winds will turn more northwesterly/northerly through
the afternoon/evening behind the southward-moving front.

Surrounding the Critical area, elevated fire-weather conditions are
anticipated from portions of southeast AZ to southwest TX. Despite
areas of strong winds across portions of southwest TX to the north
and east of the Critical area, RH is not expected to become
sufficiently low for Critical designation.

..Cohen.. 03/28/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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