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  Friday October 24, 2014

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 24 19:29:02 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 24 19:29:02 UTC 2014.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 24 19:29:02 UTC 2014.

SPC Oct 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE SRN
FL COAST...MOST WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

...EXTREME SRN FL...

AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH A STALLED FRONT OFF THE SRN
FL COAST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OFFSHORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. THE
12Z RAOBS FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST INDICATE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS
EXTREME SRN FL WHICH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EAST AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SEWD.

..DIAL.. 10/24/2014

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SPC Oct 24, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0217 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE SRN
FL COAST...MOST WILL STAY OFFSHORE.

NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..JEWELL.. 10/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

...EXTREME SRN FL...

AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH A STALLED FRONT OFF THE SRN
FL COAST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY OFFSHORE ALONG AND SOUTH OF FRONT. THE
12Z RAOBS FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST INDICATE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILES AND VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE POST-FRONTAL REGIME ACROSS
EXTREME SRN FL WHICH IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SEWD AWAY FROM THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE IMPULSE CONTINUES EAST AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SEWD.

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SPC Oct 24, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...OR A
WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ASHORE THE PACIFIC COAST WITH JET STREAK
SITUATED FROM NRN CA INTO ERN OREGON BY MIDDAY. STRONG COOLING ALOFT
AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS FROM NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON.

TO THE E...AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH LEFT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET WILL NOSE INTO LAKE ONTARIO/NEW YORK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND ACROSS NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. SUBSTANTIAL COOLING
ALOFT AND LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
ALONG A COLD FRONT DESPITE MINUSCULE INSTABILITY.

...NRN CA INTO SWRN OREGON...
A LEADING BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WILL NOT FAVOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.

THE GREATER CHANCE OF A FEW LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL OCCUR WHEN
COOLING ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY
WITH MUCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 500 J/KG DEVELOPING. SHEAR PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WHICH MAY EXIST BOTH
OVER THE WATER AND INLAND WHERE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED DUE TO
TERRAIN INFLUENCES. SMALL HAIL...LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

..JEWELL.. 10/24/2014

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

ADDED AN ELEVATED RISK AREA THIS UPDATE ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN NV AND
FAR E-CNTRL CA.

...NWRN NV...FAR E-CNTRL CA...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING PACIFIC
UPPER TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD THE WRN GREAT BASIN DURING PEAK
HEATING. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND A
TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH.
PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A CRITICAL RISK AREA WILL BE MARGINALLY LOW
RH VALUES...WHICH ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-20
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. LONG-TERM DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA IN
COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AN ELEVATED
RISK AREA...WITH PERHAPS SPOTTY/BRIEF CRITICAL CONDITIONS OCCURRING
IN LOCATIONS WITH SUFFICIENTLY LOW RH.

..ROGERS.. 10/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0346 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON SATURDAY WHILE A TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST.  AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND DEVELOP EWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING
COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  WINDY CONDITIONS
/SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AOA 20 MPH/ WILL PRECEDE AND FOLLOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN...HOWEVER...THE
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TOO MARGINAL/MOIST ACROSS THIS REGION TO
WARRANT HIGHLIGHTING FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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