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  Monday November 24, 2014

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 24 19:23:01 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 24 19:23:01 UTC 2014.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 24 19:23:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Nov 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  OTHER
STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST OHIO TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. 
THE STRONGEST JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A
SEPARATE WAVE MOVES ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS. 
THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NNEWD TO THE N OF
LAKE HURON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER TO THE E
ACROSS AL/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  

...UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAK...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IS
SUPPORTING A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
OH.  THE DEPTH AND VIGOR OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING HAS
DECREASED.  STILL...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH SHALLOW
CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...NW PA...AND WRN NY.

...NE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE GRADIENT IN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA. 
THOUGH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO THE E-SE OF THE
CONVECTION /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/...12Z SOUNDINGS
REVEALED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 500 MB.
DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BAND.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
SURFACE HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...AND A TENDENCY
FOR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THE DAMAGING
WIND RISK IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY.

..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/24/2014

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SPC Nov 24, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NCNTRL THROUGH CNTRL FL...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. A
MARGINAL THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

...SYNOPSIS...

BROAD SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WILL
PERSIST AND ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND
THROUGH THE NRN GULF AND SERN STATES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD SWWD THROUGH NRN FL INTO THE NRN GULF. A WEAK SFC
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK NEWD THROUGH
NRN FL TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ACCOMPANYING THE
LOW-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  

...NORTH CNTRL AND CNTRL FL...

A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN THE
FL PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES A
PLUME OF HIGH-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER CNTRL MEXICO INTO THE
WRN GULF THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECT NEWD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE
OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY MAGNITUDES WITH
MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG LIKELY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ONGOING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE OVER NRN FL...AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DURING THE DAY. THE
SLY LLJ WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE OVER NRN FL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH THE STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW REMAINING IN POST
FRONTAL REGIME. NEVERTHELESS...DEEP VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN AOA
40 KT IN NRN PORTION OF WARM SECTOR...SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT A MARGINAL RISK ALSO EXISTS FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS THE LLJ INCREASES. UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
IMPACTS OF ANY EARLY DAY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION ON WHAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE AN OVERALL MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT PRECLUDES ANY
CATEGORICAL UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.

..DIAL.. 11/24/2014

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 241700Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF
SRN CA...

NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN OK / SRN
KS...AS A VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND DEEP DIURNAL MIXING
RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE. WHILE THIS AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED TO THE NORTH OF
WETTING RAINS OVER THE LAST 1-2 WEEKS...SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
AND MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ELEVATED
DELINEATION.

..PICCA.. 11/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0250 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD AND AMPLIFY WHILE
UPPER RIDGING SPREADS INTO SRN/CNTRL CA. AT THE SURFACE...DEEP LOW
WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES NEWD THROUGH NERN ONTARIO AND INTO
WRN QUEBEC AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE FOUR
CORNERS.

...COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THAT GENERALLY POOR RH RECOVERY IS
ONGOING WITH NUMEROUS SITES REPORTING RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT.
OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SUSTAINED NLY/NELY WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES.  RH VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT AND ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY. 

AFTER 00Z/TUE... OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS COLD
AIR MOVES INTO THE ERN GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS...STRENGTHENING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
AFTER 00Z/TUE COULD APPROACH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. THESE
STRONG WINDS COUPLED WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY AND DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z/TUE.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF
SRN CA...

NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

..PICCA.. 11/24/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0251 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL SHIFT EWD AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ITS BASE -- ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID/LWR MS VALLEY -- AND ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING NEWD ACROSS CA AND
NV. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WHILE LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW
MOVES FROM ERN MT SEWD INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY. 

...COASTAL RANGES AND FOOTHILLS OF SRN CA...
OFFSHORE GRADIENT /AND RESULTANT OFFSHORE WINDS/ ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND OF BEGINNING STRONG...WEAKENING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THEN STRENGTHENING AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS ANTICIPATED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO A PROLONGED STRETCH OF LOW RH VALUES. HIGHEST
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25-3O MPH WITH GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH. GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THESE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS IN TANDEM WITH DRY FUELS
WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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