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  Tuesday September 2, 2014

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Sep 2 18:26:01 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Tue Sep  2 18:26:01 UTC 2014.


SPC MD 1662

MD 1662 CONCERNING

MD 1662 graphic
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0125 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL PA/NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 021825Z - 022030Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BROKEN LINES OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NY/PA INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE EWD ADVANCING SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO VICINITY SWD INTO NW PA/ERN OHIO. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S ACROSS NY/PA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE WITH MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE REGION...UPWARDS OF 40 KT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...FAST STORM MOTION AND PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES MAY ALLOW FOR SPORADIC STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE GREATER HEATING OCCURS IN BROKEN CLOUDINESS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/02/2014 ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 43687645 44037562 44337466 44217409 43827367 43397366 42757386 42047445 40627645 39777803 39637942 39818036 40448049 41438022 41977968 42497913 43687645

 
 
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