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  Saturday August 27, 2016

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 27 08:59:01 UTC 2016

No watches are valid as of Sat Aug 27 08:59:01 UTC 2016.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Aug 27 08:59:01 UTC 2016.

SPC Aug 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO WRN
MN...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

...MIDWEST...

HIGH PW PLUME CURRENTLY EXTENDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER
ANTICYCLONE FROM THE SRN PLAINS...ARCING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY. 
WITHIN THIS PLUME...SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ARE NOTED...OFTEN
ASSOCIATED WITH AND ENHANCED BY CONVECTION.  LATEST NAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WEAK SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF
THESE FEATURES OVER SERN IA...TRACKING INTO WI BY 18Z.  THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW SYNOPTIC FRONT TO ADVANCE NWD EXTENDING FROM
THE SFC LOW...ESEWD ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NRN OH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.  SEASONALLY STRONG SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
35KT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS IL INTO WI IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...ENHANCING THE SHEAR FOR POTENTIAL ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. 
EVEN SO...CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS BROAD WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS NEWD IN
RESPONSE TO VEERED LLJ.  THIS SHOULD IMPEDE OR DELAY SFC HEATING
SUCH THAT DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RETARDED WITH WEAK LAPSE
RATES EXPECTED.  IF SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY CAN DEVELOP NEAR THE WARM
FRONT THERE MAY BE A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS...OTHERWISE GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS.

...ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MINNESOTA...

PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS TO NEAR THE MN BORDER BY 28/00Z WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO COOL TO NEAR -16C NORTH OF 50KT SPEED MAX.  DESPITE THE
NOTABLE SHORT WAVE...SFC CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE BUT STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY BENEATH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES.  ROBUST UPDRAFTS SHOULD DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80F.  ISOLATED STRONG WINDS OR HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY.

..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 08/27/2016

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SPC Aug 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND...MN AND
FAR NW WI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL PA INTO
WRN AND CNTRL NY...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. A POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK.

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NNEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS ON SUNDAY AS A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS OVER
THE UPPER MS VALLEY EXTENDING WWD INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S F MAY ALLOW A CORRIDOR OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN ENSEMBLE OF THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
WOULD PUT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY FROM ERN ND ESEWD INTO SERN MN
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE
NRN EDGE OF THIS CORRIDOR WHERE A STRONG GRADIENT OF INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST. RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT ALONG WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

...PA/NY...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A 45 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET LOCATED FROM
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING EWD TO AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A CORRIDOR OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F FROM SRN OH
NEWD ACROSS WCNTRL PA INTO CNTRL NY. AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ALONG
THIS CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE FURTHER TO THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN PA AND SCNTRL NY SHOW 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT ALONG WITH 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0
C/KM. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NCNTRL PA AND WRN TO CNTRL
NY.

..BROYLES.. 08/27/2016

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SPC Aug 27, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...NO SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED.

A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE NRN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC...A MOIST
AIRMASS IS FORECAST ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS EXTENDING
EWD INTO THE MS VALLEY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM ACROSS THE MOIST SECTOR
DURING THE DAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR MULTICELL TYPE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER MS VALLEY NEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE A POCKET OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
PROFILES.

..BROYLES.. 08/27/2016

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SPC Aug 27, 2016 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VALID 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND
WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS ESEWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NERN STATES. THE MODELS MOVE THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NCNTRL U.S. FROM TUESDAY/DAY
4 TO THURSDAY/DAY 6. A PERSISTENT AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS DURING THAT
TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SHOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE.

ON FRIDAY/DAY 7 AND SATURDAY/DAY 8...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NCNTRL
STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. IF THIS OCCURS LATE IN
THE WEEK...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IN THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE FINER-SCALE DETAILS LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CONUS SUGGESTING PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SRN WA AND FAR NRN
ORE...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROADLY CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES...WILL
OVERLIE PORTIONS OF THE WRN CONUS TO THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN CANADA...WITH
MID-LEVEL WLYS BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NWRN CONUS.
THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PARTS OF WA/ORE/ID/MT/WY/UT. ELSEWHERE...ELEVATED/CRITICAL
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY.

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN/ERN WA...NRN ORE...ID...CNTRL/WRN
MT...WY...FAR NERN UT...
DIURNALLY STRENGTHENED VERTICAL MIXING IS FORECAST TO MANIFEST THE
ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT AT THE SFC...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG AND
GENERALLY WSWLY TO WLY WINDS. STRONG SFC HEATING...COMBINED WITH
AREAS OF DOWNSLOPE-FLOW-ENCOURAGED WARMING/DRYING...SHOULD ALLOW RH
VALUES TO FALL SUFFICIENTLY LOW IN SUPPORT OF AN INCREASED
FIRE-WEATHER RISK.

CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SRN WA AND FAR NRN ORE. THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE
COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AND VICINITY...WHERE LOCAL-FLOW CHANNELING IS
FORECAST TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH. WITH MINIMUM RH
AROUND 17-20 PERCENT AND DRY FUELS IN PLACE...CRITICAL DESIGNATION
IS IN EFFECT. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO EXCEED 20 MPH WHERE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES OCCUR ON ANY MORE
THAN A BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

..COHEN.. 08/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WAVY BAND OF MODESTLY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NRN CONUS AND ADJACENT SRN CANADA.
HOWEVER...STRONGER DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW AND
RELATED ENHANCEMENTS TO SFC WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO OVERLAP WITH
AREAS OF LOW RH -- WITH THE LOWEST RH PRIMARILY RELEGATED TO THE
CNTRL GREAT BASIN TO WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN GREAT PLAINS AND
VICINITY. AS A RESULT...NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

..COHEN.. 08/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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