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  Saturday January 21, 2017

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Tornado Watch 11

WW 11 TORNADO AL FL CW 210955Z - 211700Z
      
WW 0011 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 11
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and southern Alabama
  The western Florida Panhandle
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Saturday morning from 355 AM until 1100 AM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A large complex of thunderstorms will spread
east-northeastward from Mississippi into Alabama through the morning
hours.  Embedded supercells will be possible with an associated risk
for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles north of Mobile AL to 25
miles southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 10...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.

...Thompson

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SPC Tornado Watch 11 Status Reports

WW 0011 Status Updates
      
WW 0011 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 11

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE MEI TO
50 W SEM TO 40 WSW TCL.

..PETERS..01/21/17

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ALC001-003-005-007-011-013-017-021-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-
045-047-051-053-061-063-065-067-069-081-085-087-091-097-099-101-
105-109-111-113-117-121-123-129-131-211340-

AL 
.    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

AUTAUGA              BALDWIN             BARBOUR             
BIBB                 BULLOCK             BUTLER              
CHAMBERS             CHILTON             CLARKE              
CLAY                 COFFEE              CONECUH             
COOSA                COVINGTON           CRENSHAW            
DALE                 DALLAS              ELMORE              
ESCAMBIA             GENEVA              GREENE              
HALE                 HENRY               HOUSTON             
LEE                  LOWNDES             MACON               
MARENGO              MOBILE              MONROE              
MONTGOMERY           PERRY               PIKE                
RANDOLPH             RUSSELL             SHELBY              
TALLADEGA            TALLAPOOSA          WASHINGTON          
WILCOX               


FLC033-059-091-113-131-211340-

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SPC Tornado Watch 10 Status Reports

WW 0010 Status Updates
      
WW 0010 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 10

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW HUM TO
35 SSW BTR TO 5 WNW ASD TO 35 NNE GPT TO 55 E PIB.

WW 10 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 211300Z.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0087.

..PETERS..01/21/17

ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MOB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

LAC007-051-057-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-109-211300-

LA 
.    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ASSUMPTION           JEFFERSON           LAFOURCHE           
ORLEANS              PLAQUEMINES         ST. BERNARD         
ST. CHARLES          ST. JAMES           ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. TAMMANY          TERREBONNE          


MSC039-041-045-047-059-131-211300-

MS 
.    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

GEORGE               GREENE              HANCOCK             
HARRISON             JACKSON             STONE               


GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-211300-
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SPC MD 87

MD 0087 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
MD 0087 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Areas affected...Extreme southeast Mississippi and southeast
Louisiana

Concerning...Tornado Watch 10...

Valid 211235Z - 211330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues.

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts should be the primary
severe-weather threat within the remaining valid area of WW 10
(across southeast Louisiana and extreme southeast Mississippi) until
13Z.  However, given strong low-level shear, a tornado threat cannot
be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...At 12Z, mosaic radar imagery and trends in surface
mesoanalyses indicated a well-defined comma head/mesolow had moved
into west-central Alabama and was located from Marengo to Sumter
Counties.  This low is associated with a progressive shortwave
trough expected to move into Alabama through this morning with the
expected downstream northward transport of mid-upper 60s F dew
points well underway across southern Alabama into west-central
Georgia.  Meanwhile, mosaic radar imagery also indicated a trailing
band of strong to occasionally severe storms extending from the
mesolow through extreme southeast Mississippi to southeast
Louisiana.  Low-level winds per LIX 12Z sounding and WSR-88D VWP
data have begun to veer to southwesterly, becoming parallel to the
trailing band of storms.  This will continue to limit low-level
convergence into these east-southeastward-moving storms, with a
gradual diminishing trend in a severe-weather threat through 13Z
across the remaining portion of WW 10.

..Peters/Thompson.. 01/21/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   29699125 30328981 30808903 31388838 29898828 28898868
            28658936 28879010 28839089 28899124 29699125 

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SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook
      
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0937 PM CST FRI JAN 20 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the  overnight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Southern Louisiana
  Southern Mississippi
  Southwestern Alabama

* HAZARDS...
  A few intense tornadoes
  Scattered damaging winds
  Isolated large hail up to baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Scattered severe storms are expected to continue developing this
  evening across southwestern Louisiana, and spread across the
  lower Mississippi Valley and into Alabama and the Florida
  Panhandle tonight through Saturday morning. A few tornadoes,
  some of which could be strong, large hail and damaging winds
  will all be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they 
are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to
NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and
warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable
for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado
warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety,
ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

&&

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SPC Jan 21, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 AM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN
TONIGHT FOR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN
GEORGIA...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE ARKLAMISS REGION...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today through
early Sunday from Louisiana/Arkansas eastward to north Florida,
Georgia and South Carolina.  The severe weather threat will cover
the full spectrum from isolated strong tornadoes to very large hail
and damaging winds.

...Synopsis...
A strong mid-upper shortwave trough over the southern
Rockies/northern Mexico this morning will amplify over the southern
Plains this evening, and reach the lower MS Valley by Sunday
morning.  An associated surface cyclone will develop generally
eastward across the Red River Valley to AR, as a trailing cold front
begins to surge eastward from TX to LA late in the period.  This
complex synoptic system will support multiple episodes of
potentially significant severe weather through tonight in two main
corridors - one across southern AL/GA and another across the
Arklamiss.

...Southern AL/FL Panhandle into GA today and again overnight...
Two severe weather episodes are expected across this area, with
significant tornadoes possible tonight.  At this time, a
well-developed MCS and associated mesolow continue to move
east-northeastward across west-central AL.  Enhanced moisture flux
and low-level shear preceding the MCS/mesolow have contributed to an
environment favorable for embedded supercells within the larger
line/cluster.  This convective regime will spread into GA during the
day, with sufficient warming/moistening in advance of the MCS to
maintain a risk for damaging winds and a few tornadoes, prior to
weakening this evening near the GA coast and into SC.

The rain-cooled boundary trailing southwestward from this convection
today will begin to retreat northward tonight into southern AL and
the FL Panhandle, in response to the approach of the synoptic
midlevel trough and deepening surface cyclone from the southern
Plains.  The low-level jet is again expected to strengthen tonight
and contribute to an increase in warm/moist advection, beneath the
eastern extent of a steeper midlevel lapse rate plume.  Supercells
will develop in this warm advection regime, with low-level
shear/hodographs becoming favorable for strong tornadoes overnight
from southern AL and the FL Panhandle into southwest GA.  Depending
on the evolution of the mesoscale details through tonight, a
moderate risk for the tornado threat may need to be considered for
overnight.

...Arklamiss region this afternoon into early tonight...
The outflow boundary in the wake of the ongoing MS/AL convection has
stalled near the southwest LA coast this morning.  This boundary
will retreat northward during the day in response to cyclogenesis
across the southern Plains with the approach of the strong midlevel
trough from the southern Rockies.  Steep midlevel lapse rates and
relatively cool midlevel temperatures, above the returning boundary
layer dewpoints in the 60s, will support moderate buoyancy this
afternoon (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg).  Thunderstorm development is
likely by mid afternoon along a surface trough/developing cold front
from extreme southeast OK into northeast TX.  Convection will
subsequently expand across southwest AR into northern and central
LA, and then spread into MS this evening.

Deep-layer shear strength and orientation relative to the surface
trough will favor semi-discrete supercells, with sufficient
low-level shear/moisture for the risk of tornadoes.  Cool midlevel
temperatures and steep lapse rates will likewise support the
potential for very large hail, prior to the storms growing upscale
into a broader cluster overnight across northern/central MS. 
Supercell coverage could be sufficient to warrant some consideration
for an upgrade to moderate risk for hail in later updates.

..Thompson.. 01/21/2017

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