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  Saturday December 20, 2014

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 20 17:14:01 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Sat Dec 20 17:14:01 UTC 2014.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Dec 20 17:14:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Dec 20, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0649 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FCST TO CONTINUE ACROSS CONUS THIS
PERIOD.  BY 12Z...PHASING/MERGER OF SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
NOW OVER WRN CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS GREAT
PLAINS STATES...WITH DEVELOPMENT OF TROUGHING AND RELATED CYCLONIC
FLOW OVER DAKOTAS...CENTRAL PLAINS...TX AND MUCH OF NRN/WRN MEX. 
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY
FROM OH TO AL -- IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ENEWD THROUGH TODAY.  SRN
PORTION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ATLC COAST AND WEAKEN FURTHER...WHILE NRN
PORTION IS ABSORBED INTO SMALL 500-MB LOW NOW OVER W-CENTRAL NY.

AT SFC...FRONTAL-WAVE LOW NOW OVER N-CENTRAL GULF...S OF LA
COAST...SHOULD MOVE EWD ALONG FRONT AND WEAKEN AS UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES AWAY.  THIS WILL LEAD TO DECELERATION AND EVENTUAL FRONTOLYSIS
OF BAROCLINIC ZONE NOW EXTENDING SWWD FROM LOW ACROSS W-CENTRAL
GULF. ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW INITIALLY OFFSHORE NERN FL WILL
MOVE ENEWD OVER ATLC SE OF SC AND S OF OUTER BANKS.  WHILE
ASSOCIATED/ELEVATED WAA REGIME N OF LOW MAY SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTION...THUNDER POTENTIAL THEREWITH APPEARS MINIMAL AND WELL
OFFSHORE THROUGH PERIOD.  AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY AND/OR STABLE FOR
TSTMS OVER CONUS.

..EDWARDS/COHEN.. 12/20/2014

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SPC Dec 20, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. TODAY.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY
SUN...DOWNSTREAM FROM POWERFUL/DEEP ZONAL JET TOPPING BROAD RIDGE
OVER THE CNTRL AND E PACIFIC. A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE
E CNTRL AND SERN STATES WILL FURTHER DEAMPLIFY AS THEY CONTINUE E
INTO THE ATLANTIC. PATTERN WILL THEREFORE REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
APPRECIABLE ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP SHALLOW COOL DOME
OVER THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT GULF CST. ELEVATED
CONVECTION IN THAT REGION SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN TOO SHALLOW/WEAK
FOR THUNDER. 

IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LOW TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD WILL
FURTHER STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...YIELDING STRONG...VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES OVER WRN WA AS DEVELOPING SFC WAVE W OF
VANCOUVER ISLAND CONTINUES EWD. GRADUAL WARMING AT MID-LVLS AND
LIMITED LOW-LVL BUOYANCY SHOULD...HOWEVER...PRECLUDE ANY ATTENDANT
THUNDER THREAT.

..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 12/20/2014

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SPC Dec 20, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POWERFUL UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE CNTRL
ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION OF A CNTRL
CONUS TROUGH. A PRECEDING SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...REINFORCING A WARM FRONT POSITIONED FROM THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE CAROLINA COAST. 

...NRN FL AND SRN GA...
A WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL PASS N OF A SLOW-MOVING WARM FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE BIG BEND OF FL TO THE LOWER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. A MODEST
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE...SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPMENT LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES ATOP A SHALLOW MODIFIED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIMIT MUCAPE VALUES TO BELOW 300 J/KG...WITH ANY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL LIKELY CONFINED ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT.

..ROGERS.. 12/20/2014

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

VALID 201700Z - 211200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

..BOTHWELL.. 12/20/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0229 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND-SPEED MAXIMUM ADVANCING TOWARD THE PACIFIC NW.
AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SPEED MAXIMUM MOVES INLAND...A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN AMPLIFYING OVER THE CNTRL CONUS. THESE
DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF AN
INITIALLY MULTI-STREAM MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN COVERING THE CONUS.
ANY AREAS OF STRONG SFC WINDS RELATED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ALIGN WITH LOW RH...WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NWRN CONUS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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