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  Saturday October 21, 2017

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 21 11:36:02 UTC 2017

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 21 11:36:02 UTC 2017.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 21 11:36:02 UTC 2017.

SPC Oct 21, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
At this time, the risk for severe storms appears negligible across
the U.S., Monday through Monday night.

...Synopsis...
Further amplification of the large-scale pattern across the Pacific
into western North America appears possible during this period, and
models continue to suggest that this amplification will begin to
translate eastward.  Downstream of broad, strong ridging centered
near the Pacific coast, a significant short wave trough is forecast
to continue digging southeast of the upper Mississippi Valley,
accompanied by sharpening cyclonic flow from the Plains into the
Appalachians/lower Great Lakes region.  When and just how this
feature consolidates with another perturbation initially near or
east of the lower Mississippi Valley remain unclear.  Rather large
spread remains evident among the various models and within their
respective ensemble output concerning this flow evolution and
associated low-level developments across and east of the Mississippi
Valley.

The ECMWF/ECENS remain among the most aggressive indicating
potential for strong surface cyclogenesis, though mainly Monday
night across the lower Great Lakes region, when boundary layer
instability across nearby portions of the upper Ohio Valley and the
Appalachians remain in doubt.  Considerable strengthening of
lower/mid tropospheric wind fields appears possible in association
with the southern impulse, across the eastern Gulf States and
southern into central Appalachians, as early as Monday afternoon. 
However, it appears that widespread cloud cover and rain developing
ahead of the impulse could contribute to inhibited boundary layer
destabilization, and minimize convective potential.

..Kerr.. 10/21/2017

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SPC Oct 21, 2017 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A significant upper trough may amplify southeastward through much of
the eastern U.S. during the early to middle portion of next week,
before losing amplitude and accelerating into the north Atlantic
late next week into next weekend, as upstream troughing amplifies
over the interior United States.  However, the medium range models
and their respective ensemble output suggest that both developments
remain characterized by low predictability, which contributes to
uncertainty regarding associated convective potential.  There does
appear at least some potential for low-topped convective development
in the presence of moderately strong southerly lower/mid
tropospheric flow, along/ahead of a surface front associated with
the lead wave advancing into and through the mid Atlantic and
Northeast on Tuesday.  The extent to which thermodynamic profiles
become conducive to lightning remains unclear, but it may not be out
of the question that convection could aid downward mixing of higher
momentum, and be accompanied by some risk for potentially damaging
surface gusts.  Even so, due to both low potential and low
predictability issues, severe weather probabilities remain below 15
percent through this period.

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