RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 155 TORNADO KS MO 280440Z - 281200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Kansas
Southwest Missouri
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1140 PM
until 700 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An intense bowing line will continue northeast and move
across a large portion of the Watch area overnight. Strong
low-level shear and a moist and unstable airmass will support the
potential for embedded supercells and mesovortices capable of
tornadoes and severe gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of Chanute KS
to 70 miles east of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...WW
151...WW 152...WW 153...WW 154...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 22045.
...Smith
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WW 154 TORNADO IL MO 280240Z - 280900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 154
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
940 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Western Illinois
Central and Eastern Missouri
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 940 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...An severe squall line will move from west to east across
much of the Watch area during the late evening into the overnight.
A few storms may also develop ahead of the line and also pose a
severe risk. Tornadoes and damaging gusts will be the primary
severe hazards.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Peoria IL to 15
miles west of Vichy MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...WW
151...WW 152...WW 153...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Smith
Read more
WW 153 SEVERE TSTM TX 280225Z - 281000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 153
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
925 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 925 PM
until 500 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Storms will likely continue to develop late this evening
into the overnight across portions of the Watch area. The stronger
storms will pose a large hail and severe gust threat.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles west northwest
of Abilene TX to 45 miles east southeast of Dryden TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 149...WW 150...WW
151...WW 152...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Smith
Read more
WW 152 TORNADO OK TX 280050Z - 280800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
750 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern, Central, and Northeast Oklahoma
Northwest Texas
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 750 PM
until 300 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Bands of severe storms, including embedded supercells,
will continue through the evening as a low-level jet intensifies
across the Watch area. A very moist and strongly sheared
environment will support the threat for tornadoes, potentially
strong, and large hail and severe gusts into the overnight.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northwest of Grove OK to 120
miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 146...WW 147...WW
148...WW 149...WW 150...WW 151...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Smith
Read more
WW 149 TORNADO KS MO 272155Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 149
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Eastern Kansas
Western and Central Missouri
* Effective this Saturday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually move east into the Watch area
this evening. Increasing moisture and strengthening shear will
favor organized storms, included supercell and line segments.
Upscale growth is likely to eventually occur later this evening with
the threat transitioning to primarily a risk tornadoes and damaging
gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Kansas City MO to
35 miles west southwest of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 145...WW 146...WW
147...WW 148...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Smith
Read more
WW 0155 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0155 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more
WW 0154 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W COU TO
10 NNE COU TO 25 SSW UIN TO 25 E UIN TO 35 W PIA TO 25 SW MMO.
..LEITMAN..04/28/24
ATTN...WFO...LSX...ILX...SGF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 154
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC009-013-017-021-039-057-061-083-107-113-115-117-119-125-129-
135-137-147-149-167-169-171-179-280640-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALHOUN CASS
CHRISTIAN DE WITT FULTON
GREENE JERSEY LOGAN
MCLEAN MACON MACOUPIN
MADISON MASON MENARD
MONTGOMERY MORGAN PIATT
PIKE SANGAMON SCHUYLER
SCOTT TAZEWELL
MOC007-027-029-051-071-073-113-125-131-135-139-141-151-163-173-
183-189-219-510-280640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUDRAIN CALLAWAY CAMDEN
COLE FRANKLIN GASCONADE
LINCOLN MARIES MILLER
Read more
WW 0153 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE 6R6
TO 55 NE 6R6 TO 20 NNE SJT TO 20 S ABI TO 20 NE ABI.
..LEITMAN..04/28/24
ATTN...WFO...SJT...EWX...MAF...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 153
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-083-095-105-137-171-265-267-271-299-307-319-327-385-
399-411-413-435-451-465-280640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN
CONCHO CROCKETT EDWARDS
GILLESPIE KERR KIMBLE
KINNEY LLANO MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD REAL
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SUTTON TOM GREEN VAL VERDE
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
WW 0152 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ABI TO
5 SSE ABI TO 40 NE ABI TO 30 ESE SPS TO 45 E SPS TO 35 WNW MLC TO
10 SW TUL TO 25 NE BVO.
..LEITMAN..04/28/24
ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...FWD...SJT...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 152
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC005-013-019-021-029-035-041-063-067-069-085-091-095-097-099-
101-105-107-111-115-121-123-131-143-145-280640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHEROKEE COAL CRAIG
DELAWARE HUGHES JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LOVE MCINTOSH
MARSHALL MAYES MURRAY
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OTTAWA PITTSBURG
PONTOTOC ROGERS TULSA
WAGONER
TXC077-097-133-237-337-363-417-429-497-503-280640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLAY COOKE EASTLAND
JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO
Read more
WW 0151 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW MSN
TO 25 E MSN TO 45 WNW MKG.
..THORNTON..04/28/24
ATTN...WFO...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 151
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
WIC055-059-079-101-105-127-133-280340-
WI
. WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
JEFFERSON KENOSHA MILWAUKEE
RACINE ROCK WALWORTH
WAUKESHA
LMZ644-645-646-671-673-675-280340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI
NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI
WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE
Read more
WW 0150 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 150
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N IRK TO
45 WSW BRL TO 20 NW BRL TO 15 NNW MLI TO 35 SE DBQ TO 20 WNW MSN.
..THORNTON..04/28/24
ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ARX...MKX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 150
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC011-015-067-071-073-109-131-155-177-187-195-280340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUREAU CARROLL HANCOCK
HENDERSON HENRY MCDONOUGH
MERCER PUTNAM STEPHENSON
WARREN WHITESIDE
IAC057-111-280340-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DES MOINES LEE
MOC045-103-111-205-280340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CLARK KNOX LEWIS
Read more
MD 0557 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST AR AND EASTERN OK INTO NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Areas affected...northwest AR and eastern OK into north TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 280532Z - 280700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A QLCS will continue to gradually shift east with time
overnight. A new watch or two will likely be needed in the next hour
for parts of northwest Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and north Texas.
DISCUSSION...A mature QLCS extending from northeast OK into central
TX is gradually shifting east, though individual convective elements
within the line are moving more northeast. Most discrete supercells
ahead of the line earlier this evening have now merged with the
QLCS, though some potential still exists for an isolated pre-QLCS
supercell to develop from far north TX into southeast OK. A strong
southerly low-level jet is contributing to enlarged, curved
hodographs and 0-1 km SRH around 200-400 m2/s2. This should continue
to support rotation/mesovortex development and tornado potential the
next several hours. Damaging wind to 70 mph also will be possible in
additional to tornado potential.
..Leitman/Thompson.. 04/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 36489347 35049415 33279539 32339638 31979720 31809834
31969896 33059792 34489579 36499457 36489347
Read more
MD 0556 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153... FOR TX BIG COUNTRY INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
Mesoscale Discussion 0556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Areas affected...TX Big Country into the Edwards Plateau
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153...
Valid 280421Z - 280615Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 153
continues.
SUMMARY...Broken squall line will advance east with an attendant
risk for wind/hail.
DISCUSSION...Latest satellite imagery clearly depicts large-scale
ascent spreading across the southern high Plains late this evening.
Robust, deep convection has evolved along the dryline south of I-20
into the Edwards Plateau. A broken squall line, with embedded
supercells, will propagate east into a region characterized by
MLCAPE on the order of 3000 J/kg, and deep-layer shear more than
strong enough to maintain organized updrafts. Latest radar data
suggests large hail is likely with the strongest updrafts, and
strong winds can be expected, especially with bowing segments. This
activity will progress steadily east across the remainder of the
watch into the pre-dawn hours.
..Darrow.. 04/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29780250 32700149 32689943 29790052 29780250
Read more
MD 0555 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 152... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0555
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 152...
Valid 280351Z - 280545Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 152 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado potential is greatest across eastern Oklahoma.
DISCUSSION...Influence of mid-level speed max appears to be
affecting convection over central/southern Oklahoma. Low-level SRH
has increased markedly across eastern OK this evening as LLJ is
focused into this region of the southern Plains. 0-1 SRH values are
currently around 600 m2/s2 at INX, and weak inhibition that was
observed on 00z OUN sounding is now negligible.
Late-afternoon convection that evolved over northwest TX/southwest
OK has grown upscale and progressed downstream. Leading edge of
well-defined MCS now arcs from near Payne-Okfuskee-Garvin County.
While embedded circulations are noted along this line, especially
the northern portions, of more concern are the discrete supercells
that have developed ahead of the MCS. Several notable, long-lived
supercells have evolved from south-central OK into Hughes County.
Tornado potential appears significant with these discrete pre-MCS
updrafts. As these updrafts are overtaken by the MCS a more complex
MCS will ultimately evolve within the larger warm advection
corridor. A few strong tornadoes are likely with this activity.
..Darrow.. 04/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 38359300 41109013 40568868 38579056 37629192 38359300
Read more
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight across
much of the southern Plains and lower Missouri Valley. The greatest
severe threat will be from north Texas northeastward through
Oklahoma into far southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. All
hazards will be possible including tornadoes, with some strong,
damaging wind gusts above 70 mph, and very large hail exceeding 2
inches in diameter. Scattered severe storms will also be possible
later this evening in parts of west-central and southwest Texas.
Isolated severe storms are also expected to occur this evening in
parts of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley northeastward into the
Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains/Lower Missouri Valley...
An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is
approaching the southern High Plains. An associated 60 to 80 knot
mid-level jet streak is currently ejecting northeastward into the
southern Plains. This feature has been slower than forecast, and
convective coverage across much of the southern Plains has been slow
to increase. The lack of convection across much of Oklahoma has
likely been a result of a capping inversion, that is evident on the
00Z Norman sounding just below 700 mb. As the mid-level jet streak
moves over the southern Plains this evening, this cap is expected to
weaken and the low-level jet will continue to strengthen. This
should result in a ramp up in convective coverage over the next 2 to
3 hours, with a line of strong to severe storms developing along the
western edge of the low-level jet from north Texas through central
and northeast Oklahoma into southwest Missouri.
The overall environment from north Texas into Oklahoma and southwest
Missouri is characterized by moderate instability (MLCAPE around
2500 J/kg), 0-6 km shear near 60 knots, and 700 to 500 mb lapse
rates from 8 to 8.5 C/km. This should continue to support the
development of supercells with large hail this evening. The more
intense supercells could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter. In addition, the 00Z sounding from Norman has 0-3 km
storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will also be
favorable for tornadoes. The tornado threat is expected to be
greatest with either supercells embedded in the line, or with
discrete cells ahead of the line. Strong tornadoes will be possible.
As the QLCS organizes this evening, tornadoes may also develop with
rotating elements within the line itself. This linear MCS is
expected to produce widespread wind damage and large hail from north
Texas into central and eastern Oklahoma, and west-central/southwest
Missouri. The severe threat will likely continue well into the
overnight period.
...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes...
The latest surface analysis shows a front from eastern Iowa
northeastward into the western Great Lakes. A moist airmass is
located to the southeast of the front, where surface dewpoints are
mostly from near 60 into the mid 60s F. The RAP is analyzing MLCAPE
in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range, and moderate deep-layer shear across
much of this airmass near the front. The latest WSR-88D VWP from
Chicago has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots, and strong speed shear in
the low-levels. RAP forecast soundings this evening in the vicinity
also have steep lapse rates. This environment should support
supercell development with large hail. Wind damage will also be
possible with supercells and short bowing line segments.
..Broyles.. 04/28/2024
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