40.2°F
Current conditions from King Hill
Updated every 5 minutes
 
  Sunday May 1, 2016

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun May 1 08:36:02 UTC 2016

No watches are valid as of Sun May  1 08:36:02 UTC 2016.


SPC MD 519

MD 0519 CONCERNING 01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE FOR SOUTHERN LA...FAR SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST MS
MD 0519 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN LA...FAR SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...01Z OUTLOOK UPGRADE 

VALID 010822Z - 011015Z

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD ENDING AT
12Z. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A WEAK WARM CONVEYOR...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM NEAR GALVESTON BAY INTO SOUTHWEST LA. 0-1 KM SHEAR IS
WEAK /ONLY AROUND 10 KT/ AND FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6 KM IS MODEST
PER RECENT LAKE CHARLES VWP DATA. HOWEVER...VEERING OF THE WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT FROM THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AMID STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR HAIL PRODUCTION GIVEN A
MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR MASS PER MODIFIED 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB AND
RAP SOUNDINGS. HRRR/WRF-NSSL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH TIME. GREATEST SEVERE HAIL THREAT SHOULD EXIST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE AN INCREASING CLUSTER
MODE/DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE LIKELY LIMITS HAIL MAGNITUDE LATER
THIS MORNING.

..GRAMS/GOSS.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

LAT...LON   29749450 30909388 31279287 31479168 31369073 30899013
            30298995 29879013 29569028 29249080 29559344 29519414
            29749450 

Read more

SPC May 1, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS REGION...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS ACROSS
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHING CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MUCH
OF THE U.S...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOWS...ONE
NOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ANOTHER OVER ARIZONA. 
HOWEVER...WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...NOW EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO BRITISH
COLUMBIA...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A SIGNIFICANT UPPER HIGH
WILL EVOLVE AND BECOME CENTERED EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES DURING
THIS PERIOD.  BY 12Z MONDAY...THIS LATTER FEATURE MAY ENCOMPASS MUCH
OF WESTERN CANADA...AND THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING MAY LINGER WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF
SPLIT WESTERLIES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...BUT THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED/DEFORMED REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD.
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...THE
LEAD IMPULSE IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE
TRAILING IMPULSE MAY CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
 

IN THE WAKE OF THE LEAD IMPULSE...THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL COOLING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TODAY.  IT APPEARS THAT THIS MAY
PROGRESS ACROSS THE TEXAS BIG BEND REGION AND MUCH OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY...WHILE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  AHEAD OF THE
IMPULSE...A WEAK LOW MAY TRACK ALONG THE STALLED PORTION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. 
AT THE SAME TIME...A BAROCLINIC ZONE ...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF COLD AIR DAMMING TO THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS...IS EXPECTED TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

TO THE SOUTH OF THESE FRONTS...IT GENERALLY APPEARS THAT MODERATE TO
STRONG POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /2000+ J PER KG/ WILL BECOME CONFINED
TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GRANDE VALLEY INTO UPPER TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.  BUT...WEAK TO MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION /CAPE OF 1000+ J PER KG/ ALSO APPEARS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

...OHIO VALLEY INTO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
DETAILS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION...COINCIDING WITH
STRENGTHENING OF MID/UPPER WIND FIELDS WITH THE APPROACHING
IMPULSE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG...AND POTENTIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
MODEST IN SIZE.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TEND TO MINIMIZE THE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL.  BUT SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...WHICH MAY NOT BECOME MUCH MORE
THAN WIDELY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL GULF COAST...
DETAILS OF POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ARE UNCERTAIN.  MUCH OF
THE REGION MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET.  BUT HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY STRONG...BENEATH AND BETWEEN THE DIFLUENT POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JETS.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...BOTH AHEAD OF
THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONT...AND TO THE COOL SIDE/ABOVE THE
FRONT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST SUPPORTIVE OF
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.  

GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT ONE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EARLY
NEAR UPPER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTAL AREAS.  OTHERWISE... STORM
INITIATION IS MOST CERTAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS THE UPPER IMPULSE
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ORGANIZING CLUSTER OF STORMS
COULD CROSS THE RIVER...THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND TEXAS COASTAL
AREAS BY 12Z MONDAY. 

ADDITIONAL STORMS...WITH AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...MAY
NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
HILL COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS.

..KERR/PICCA.. 05/01/2016

Read more

SPC May 1, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TN TO VA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES...NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO VIRGINIA.

...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS FORECAST SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION DRAPED
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WSWWD ACROSS WV/KY/MIDDLE TN AT 18Z...FARTHER
NORTH THAN FRIDAY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE
OPTED TO ADJUST CAT1 SEVERE PROBS NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
ACROSS PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS
WAKE OVER THE DELMARVA.  AS A RESULT...STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS VA/WV.  WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT STRONG...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THIS
REGION AHEAD OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THIS
AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD
ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WV INTO WRN VA WHERE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS.
 ESEWD STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SOUTH TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TX BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.  WHILE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS
REGION IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE OFFSHORE OVER THE NWRN
GULF BASIN.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

Read more

SPC May 1, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S....

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US TUESDAY.  GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.

...SOUTHEASTERN U.S...

ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CONSISTENT MODEL WITH
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AS IT DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE
SERN U.S. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DAY3.  MODEST 500MB FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE SERN U.S. SUCH THAT ANY STORMS
THAT FORM AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELL ROBUST CONVECTION.  WHILE FORECAST LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP...PW VALUES ON THE ORDER OF
1.5 IN AND SBCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG...SUGGEST HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  SCT THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COLD FRONT BUT
MORE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID BUOYANCY.

..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

Read more

SPC May 1, 2016 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL REGARDING ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF ERN U.S. TROUGH DAY4.  AS ONE SIGNIFICANT
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A SECONDARY SPEED MAX/SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFS DOES NOT DEPICT THIS FEATURE
PARTICULARLY WELL AND WLY FLOW IS CONSIDERABLY DEEPER ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THAN THE ECMWF.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY PREDICTABILITY
WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS THIS PERIOD.

WEAK BUOYANCY WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE CONUS MUCH OF THIS WEEK UNTIL
PERHAPS DAY8 WHEN MODIFIED MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  ECMWF EJECTS A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY WHILE
THE GFS DELAYS THIS EJECTING TROUGH.  UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT TO
OUTLOOK SEVERE IN THE PLAINS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL EXTEND FROM NRN MEXICO NEWD
TO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...AND AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY OVER AZ THIS
MORNING SHOULD WEAKEN BY THIS EVENING. AT THE SFC...SLY TO SWLY
WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENHANCED WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONLY
MARGINAL REDUCTIONS IN RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL...AND AN ELEVATED AREA DOES
NOT APPEAR WARRANTED. MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

..GLEASON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD INITIALLY RESIDE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON D2/MON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD MOVE SWD TO THE CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ENCOURAGING AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH
OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS. ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM TX
NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SFC...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR NLY WINDS
OF 10-15 MPH TO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN ND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. HOWEVER...RH
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT OWING MAINLY TO COOL
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THESE MARGINAL FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AND RH
VALUES ACROSS WRN ND MON AFTERNOON...NO ELEVATED AREA HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED. MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS.

..GLEASON.. 05/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

Read more


 
 
Current Radar Loop:

Copyright © WestfordWeather.net 2007-2016. All rights reserved.