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  Thursday July 30, 2015

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SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 30 13:56:01 UTC 2015

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 30 13:56:01 UTC 2015.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 30 13:56:01 UTC 2015.

SPC Jul 30, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST
STATES...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A SIMILAR SEVERE THREAT FROM THE SOUTHEAST STATES
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS AND
ADJACENT CANADA THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. A
WEST/NORTHWESTWARD-SHIFTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES WILL BE FLANKED BY A MODERATELY STRONG CORRIDOR OF
CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND EMBEDDED LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGHS OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST STATES. 

...NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
EARLY MORNING RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECT SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AND SEMI-PREVALENT CLOUD COVER ALONG THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEAR/JUST AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. ACCORDINGLY...THIS SHOULD SOMEWHAT TEMPER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT
OTHERWISE CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 12Z
OBSERVED RAOBS. THAT SAID...PRE-FRONTAL MOIST ADVECTION AND POCKETS
OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND RESULT IN
CORRIDORS OF MODEST BUOYANCY FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC/DELMARVA
INTO SOUTHEAST NY AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

MODEST HEIGHT FALLS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40
KT EFFECTIVE/ WILL OVERSPREAD MAINLY NY/NEW ENGLAND TODAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARD-TRANSITIONING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SPEED MAX. PROVIDED SUFFICIENT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...MULTICELLS AND SOME LINEAR SEGMENTS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS
SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...LARGER-SCALE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY...LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...WITH A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL ALSO A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND.

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...
STRONG SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES/ WILL RESULT IN
MODERATELY STRONG INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE RANGING
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG. AS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE IN VICINITY OF LEE
TROUGH/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND/OR THE BROADER WARM SECTOR THIS
AFTERNOON...A MODESTLY ENHANCED BAND /15-20 KT/ OF
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS MAY HELP SUSTAIN STRONGER STORMS
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.

...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
A MCS OVER SOUTHERN KS/FAR NORTHERN OK AT MID-MORNING MAY PERSIST
SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND/OR SUBSEQUENT LATER
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR...IN VICINITY OF A RESIDUAL FRONT AND
RELATED CORRIDOR OF RICH MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
WEAK...AMPLE INSTABILITY/WATER LOADING MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS TO OCCUR.

...NORTHERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...
A FEW LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. WHILE MOISTURE/OVERALL BUOYANCY
WILL BE A LIMITED AND SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY...A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS COULD REACH THE SURFACE GIVEN A WARM/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER IN THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

..GUYER/COOK.. 07/30/2015

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