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  Saturday May 28, 2016

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226

WW 226 SEVERE TSTM TX 282100Z - 290400Z
      
WW 0226 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 226
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
  1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY INCLUDING A FEW
SUPERCELLS...EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS WATCH AREA THROUGH MID-EVENING.
THE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO AS THEY GROW INTO CLUSTERS THIS EVENING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BROWNWOOD TEXAS TO 20 MILES EAST OF DEL RIO TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 225...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 65
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26020.


...CORFIDI

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225

WW 225 SEVERE TSTM IA IL MN MO WI 281835Z - 290200Z
      
WW 0225 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN IOWA
  WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
  SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
  NORTHEAST MISSOURI
  SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 135 PM UNTIL
  900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS IN SHORT LINES AND CLUSTERS...SOME OF WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO ADJACENT PARTS
OF ILLINOIS...WISCONSIN...AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A LOW RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A TORNADO OR TWO...MAINLY IN
NORTHERN PART OF WATCH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 22025.


...CORFIDI

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 226 Status Reports

WW 0226 Status Updates
      
WW 0226 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 226

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..GOSS..05/28/16

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...FWD...MAF...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 226 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC019-049-059-081-083-093-095-105-133-137-171-173-227-235-259-
265-267-271-299-307-319-325-327-333-335-353-383-385-399-411-413-
431-435-441-443-451-463-465-290040-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BANDERA              BROWN               CALLAHAN            
COKE                 COLEMAN             COMANCHE            
CONCHO               CROCKETT            EASTLAND            
EDWARDS              GILLESPIE           GLASSCOCK           
HOWARD               IRION               KENDALL             
KERR                 KIMBLE              KINNEY              
LLANO                MCCULLOCH           MASON               
MEDINA               MENARD              MILLS               
MITCHELL             NOLAN               REAGAN              
REAL                 RUNNELS             SAN SABA            
SCHLEICHER           STERLING            SUTTON              
TAYLOR               TERRELL             TOM GREEN           
UVALDE               VAL VERDE           


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 225 Status Reports

WW 0225 Status Updates
      
WW 0225 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 225

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..05/28/16

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...LSX...ILX...LOT...MPX...MKX...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 225 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

ILC001-009-011-015-057-067-071-073-085-095-103-109-123-125-131-
141-143-155-161-169-175-177-179-187-195-201-203-282040-

IL 
.    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BROWN               BUREAU              
CARROLL              FULTON              HANCOCK             
HENDERSON            HENRY               JO DAVIESS          
KNOX                 LEE                 MCDONOUGH           
MARSHALL             MASON               MERCER              
OGLE                 PEORIA              PUTNAM              
ROCK ISLAND          SCHUYLER            STARK               
STEPHENSON           TAZEWELL            WARREN              
WHITESIDE            WINNEBAGO           WOODFORD            


IAC005-011-013-017-019-023-031-033-037-043-045-051-055-057-061-
065-067-075-081-087-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-115-123-
131-139-157-163-171-177-179-183-189-191-195-282040-

IA 
.    IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALLAMAKEE            BENTON              BLACK HAWK          
BREMER               BUCHANAN            BUTLER              
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SPC MD 773

MD 0773 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226... FOR PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX
MD 0773 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0773
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226...

VALID 282338Z - 290145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 226
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES
IN AND NEAR WW 0226.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL TX...INCLUDING THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREAS.  THE STRONGEST CELL IS OBSERVED OVER NRN
KIMBLE CO. ATTM /I.E. INVOF THE SERN CORNER OF THE WW/...WHERE LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLF-BALL SIZE HAS BEEN REPORTED.  

THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE INITIATING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...AS BOUNDARY-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES
TO BACK TO SELY IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
SHIFTING ENEWD ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA VICINITY ATTM.  WITH THE
FLOW VEERING TO WLY AT MID LEVELS PROVIDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS...AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THIS
REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32309880 30399858 29239892 28719976 28600048 29380107
            29690169 29690258 30170298 31240289 32660197 33210066
            33220011 32909925 32309880 

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SPC May 28, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF SCNTRL AND
SWRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN THROUGH NCNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MIDDLE
THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF IND...NWRN OH
AND SRN LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.  A
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
OVER PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MARGINAL
THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED BRIEF
TORNADO WILL EXIST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY ALONG A PORTION OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

...DISCUSSION...

HAVE INTRODUCED LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SCNTRL TX.
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING IN THIS AREA. REF SWOMCD 770
FOR MORE INFORMATION. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED LOW WIND PROBABILITIES
OVER A PORTION OF NRN IND...NWRN OH AND SRN MI. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST.

..DIAL.. 05/28/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
NEB/IA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES
SLOWLY ENEWD...REACHING SW WI EARLY SUN. IN ITS WAKE...WEAK
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...DOWNSTREAM FROM SRN STREAM LOW APPROACHING THE SRN CA CST.
OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WITH RIDGE REMAINING QSTNRY OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC CST...TD #2 EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NWWD...POSSIBLY
DECELERATING WITH TIME PER NHC.

FEATURES WILL REMAIN WEAK AT LWR LVLS. A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK NE
ACROSS NW IA ATTENDANT TO NEB-IA UPR VORT. THE LOW SHOULD TURN MORE
ENEWD ALONG STALLED FRONT OVER SRN MN/CNTRL WI TNGT. ACROSS THE SRN
PLNS...RELAXATION OF LOW-LVL DRYING/COOLING IN WAKE OF NEB-IA
SYSTEM...AND STRENGTHENING OF LEE TROUGH DOWNSTREAM FROM E PAC
LOW...WILL BACK LOW-LVL FLOW TO SELY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO RETURN
NWWD ACROSS SW AND WRN TX.

...MID/UPR MS VLY TODAY...
POCKETS OF MODERATE WARM SECTOR HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER
NRN/ERN IA AND ADJACENT NW IL/SW WI AND FAR SRN MN...S OF STALLED
FRONT IN MN/WI...AND W OF RESIDUAL TSTM DEBRIS IN IL. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THAT ASCENT WITH WRN IA VORT LOBE WILL OVERSPREAD NRN AND
ERN IA FOLLOWING MAX HEATING...WITH ASSOCIATED 500 MB TEMPS AOB
MINUS 14C CONTRIBUTING TO AREAL DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH GRADUAL
WEAKENING OF UPR SYSTEM WILL KEEP MEAN FLOW COMPARATIVELY MODEST
RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS...RESIDUAL BAND OF 40+ KT SWLY 700-500 MB
FLOW ON E SIDE OF VORT LOBE WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SHORT
LINES OF SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
AND...ALTHOUGH WIND PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN EXHIBIT VERTICAL
VEER-BACK PATTERNS...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S F AND
ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NEAR STALLED FRONT...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN SOME POTENTIAL FOR FAVORABLE
STORM-BOUNDARY INTERACTION. THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET.

...S CNTRL/SW TX TO SW KS/WRN OK THIS AFTN INTO TNGT...
STRONG SFC HEATING AND INFLOW OF RICH MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD ACROSS
THE BIG BEND REGION AND HILL COUNTRY WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLE
SFC-BASED CAPE /VALUES AOA 4000 J PER KG/ ACROSS S CNTRL TX THIS
AFTN. ALTHOUGH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL...SATELLITE
SUGGESTS PRESENCE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMANATING NRN CHIHUAHUA
THAT...COUPLED WITH TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS AND/OR LOCALIZED ASCENT
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS...COULD BOOST
PARCELS TO THEIR LFCS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF BUOYANCY...IF EML CAP IS
INDEED BREACHED...25-30 KT WLY MID-LVL FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
HP-TYPE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG
WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THESE MAY MERGE INTO A SLOWLY-MOVING
CLUSTER OVER THE HILL COUNTRY TNGT.

FARTHER N...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLD STORM OR
TWO WITH LARGE HAIL FORMING IN NOCTURNALLY-STRENGTHENED WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ZONE OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT PARTS OF OK/SW
KS EARLY SUN. THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...APPEARS
TOO LOW TO WARRANT ADDITION OF PROBABILITIES ATTM.

...CSTL CAROLINAS/TD 2 TNGT/EARLY SUN...
TD 2 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY NWWD THROUGH THE PERIOD
...GIVEN STRENGTH/ORIENTATION OF RIDGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC CST. 
SATELLITE/LIGHTNING DATA AND COMPARATIVELY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS
SUGGEST THAT AN ENVELOPE OF SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT AIR WILL REMAIN
PRESENT ON THE NWRN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SEMI-DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH SYSTEM NOT EXPECTED TO
APPRECIABLY DEEPEN /PER NHC/...HODOGRAPHS LIKELY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
SMALL. NEVERTHELESS...PRESENCE OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
INVOF DISCRETE CELLS SUGGESTS A NON-ZERO BRIEF TORNADO RISK ALONG
PARTS OF THE SC AND SRN NC CSTS LATE TNGT AND EARLY SUN.

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