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  Sunday July 24, 2016

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 24 06:31:01 UTC 2016

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 24 06:31:01 UTC 2016.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 24 06:31:01 UTC 2016.

SPC Jul 24, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
MIDWEST REGIONS...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST...

WEAK LARGE-SCALE 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AS 50KT 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO NRN WI BY LATE AFTERNOON.  WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION MAY GENERATE TSTM ACTIVITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AS VEERED LLJ FOCUSES ACROSS WI INTO NRN LOWER MI.  CURRENT RADAR
DATA...24/05Z...DEPICTS THIS PROCESS HAS BEGUN OVER MN AND
SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT SHOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO WI BY
DAYBREAK.  IT/S NOT REAL CLEAR HOW SEVERE THIS EARLY-DAY CONVECTION
WILL BE BUT HAIL/GUSTY WINDS COULD CERTAINLY BE NOTED WITH THE
MODESTLY SHEARED UPDRAFTS.  THESE STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS INTO LOWER
MI BY MID DAY...POSSIBLY INHIBITING BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING.  OF
POTENTIALLY MORE CONCERN...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS WI AHEAD OF A SFC FRONT.  IF
SUFFICIENT HEATING CAN DEVELOP...CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES MAY BE
BREACHED WITHIN VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

STRONG SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR WOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS...POSSIBLY
SUPERCELLULAR IN NATURE.  LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED EARLY-DAY STORMS AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN
BUOYANCY DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN 5 PERCENT
SEVERE PROBS RATHER THAN INCREASE TO SLGT RISK.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...

TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO POSITION ITSELF FROM NRN MO...WWD
ACROSS KS INTO NERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
WELL SOUTH OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW WHERE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS.  EVEN SO...STRONG SFC HEATING SHOULD AID TSTM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR GUSTY DOWNDRAFTS.

SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS FROM SERN WY INTO CO WHERE VEERING PROFILES WITH
HEIGHT MAY ENABLE UPDRAFTS TO WEAKLY ROTATE.  STRONG HEATING ACROSS
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND FAVORABLE SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW SHOULD
ENCOURAGE CONVECTION TO MIGRATE SEWD INTO A MORE MOIST/BUOYANT AIR
MASS WHERE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

..DARROW/LEITMAN.. 07/24/2016

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SPC Jul 24, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ONT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WHILE MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WWD
TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER W...A PROMINENT
MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY
OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 

...NORTHEAST...
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW WILL OCCUR EARLY MON MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BRINGING
MID-60S TO LOW-70S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS NY/PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
STILL OCCUR ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY WWD INTO THE UPPER-OH
VALLEY...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 80S TO LOW-90S F
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TSTM INITIATION OR
REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A BROAD PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
ZONE ACROSS NY...AND ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN PA INTO
PARTS OF OH/IND. 

WITH GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...DMGG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PA AND WRN NY WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY STRONGER...BUT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE N...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH LENDS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION OF TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR
FARTHER N/E INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF NY...WHILE SHEAR
WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG/N OF THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THESE
FACTORS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR SLIGHT RISK
UPGRADE IN THIS OUTLOOK. 

...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR
OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S ACROSS WRN SD TO NEAR
60 F OVER WRN NEB. S-SELY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED E OF A
LEE TROUGH...AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND PERHAPS OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODEST /AROUND 20
KT/...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COUPLED WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AS A
STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ OCCURS. 
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM COVERAGE LIMITS CONFIDENCE FOR
AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THIS OUTLOOK.

..ROGERS.. 07/24/2016

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