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  Thursday January 29, 2015

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2015

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2015.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 29 22:09:02 UTC 2015.

SPC Jan 29, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 01/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
FROM QUASI-STNRY SPLIT OVER THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE
LWR OH VLY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT SHEARS ENE INTO MD/PA LATER
TODAY...AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING NRN AND MIDDLE STREAM DISTURBANCES
MOVING SEWD FROM WRN ONT AND IA. THE LATTER FEATURES SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO A FAIRLY SHARP...NEUTRALLY-TILTED TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL/SRN
APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRI. OVER THE SOUTHWEST...CURRENT SATELLITE DATA
LEND CREDENCE TO THE IDEA THAT VORT MAX NOW W OF THE BAJA SPUR WILL
DEVELOP INTO AN ELONGATED CLOSED LOW CENTERED OFF THE NRN BAJA CST
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

DESPITE EXPECTED POCKETS OF MDT TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT...WEAK BUOYANCY /OWING PRIMARILY TO SPARSE MOISTURE/ SHOULD
PROHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ERN U.S.  

ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SWRN U.S...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD OVER FAR SRN CA AND AZ
AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NWD BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT ON E
SIDE OF TROUGH. HOWEVER...WEAK LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

..MOSIER.. 01/29/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0210 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
PHASING OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SITUATED ALONG THE ENTIRE ERN SEABOARD.
LOW-AMPLITUDE UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL TRANSIT EWD ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL
PLAINS...WHILE A BROAD TROUGH/CLOSED LOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE SWRN CONUS. THE SFC PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH PRES
CONTINUING TO BUILD EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASING
TROUGHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS /SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH/ WILL
BE EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE RH VALUES
WILL DECREASE IN THE DRY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. HOWEVER...COOL TEMPS
WILL RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL RH VALUES...TEMPERING THE FIRE WX
THREAT. ELSEWHERE...CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOW AS HIGHER WINDS
WILL FAIL TO OVERLAP AREAS OF WARM/DRY CONDITIONS.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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