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  Friday October 31, 2014

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 31 14:00:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Oct 31, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP/FORECAST...
HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED...SLOWLY-PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH SAT. THE GRT LKS-OH VLY TROUGH
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THIS PERIOD AS STRONG VORT MAX NOW OVER WI
ACCELERATES SSE INTO N GA...WHILE LEAD IMPULSES NOW IN AR...NRN
AL...AND ERN NC ARE ABSORBED WITHIN STRENGTHENING...LARGER-SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW.

DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST AREAS AT LWR LVLS AS
SPRAWLING...POLAR ANTICYCLONE BUILDS S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
ERN U.S.  ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD AIR SURGE...S TX
FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS SHOULD CONTINUE SWD ACROSS THE LWR RIO
GRANDE LATER THIS MORNING...ENDING THUNDER THREAT IN DEEP S TX.
OTHERWISE...STEEPENING LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND
STRENGTHENING...DEEPLY PARALLEL OVER-WATER TRAJECTORIES MAY SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF CONVECTION TO SUPPORT SCTD THUNDER OVER
PARTS OF NE IL...NRN IND...AND SW MI. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND SNOW. ISOLD TSTMS MAY OCCUR LATE TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SAT OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS...WHERE FORCING FOR
ASCENT/MID-LVL COOLING WILL APPRECIABLY INCREASE IN DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION ZONE OF DEEPENING TROUGH. SCANT MOISTURE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT BUOYANCY/STORM COVERAGE.  

FARTHER W...E PACIFIC TROUGH ALSO SHOULD AMPLIFY AS JET STREAK NOW
DROPPING S ALONG 135W EVOLVES INTO A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS SRN CA EARLY SAT.  

MID-LVL COOLING AND ASCENT WITH THE E PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
WEAK BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS ISOLD TSTMS OVER CA...ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE PERIOD. E OF THE TROUGH...DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS THIS AFTN INTO TNGT FROM THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION SWD TO THE MEXICAN BORDER. DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY A BELT OF MID/UPR-LVL MOISTURE OVERSPREADING REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK IMPULSE SHEARING NNE AHEAD OF MAIN UPR
TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 10/31/2014

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