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  Monday August 31, 2015

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 31 17:25:01 UTC 2015

No watches are valid as of Mon Aug 31 17:25:01 UTC 2015.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Aug 31 17:25:01 UTC 2015.

SPC Aug 31, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED
STATES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...

A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NERN PACIFIC INTO WRN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE IS DAMPENED DUE TO THE NEWD
PROGRESSION OF A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FROM NEAR THE MT-ND
BORDER TO JAMES BAY.  ELSEWHERE...A VORTICITY MAXIMUM SITUATED OVER
THE WRN CAROLINAS WILL WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING NEWD INTO THE SRN MID
ATLANTIC REGION.

...ERN CAROLINAS TODAY...

THE NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.  DEEP-LAYER GRADIENT FLOW AND RESULTANT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH TODAY AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY-DAY
CONVECTION WILL LIMIT SUBSTANTIAL AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. 
THUS...WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SUSTAINED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW...THIS
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.

...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...

FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMERGING
FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY INVOF A WEAK LEE LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONT.  INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 08/31/2015

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SPC Aug 31, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CENTRAL AZ...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF ARIZONA.  OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...AND ALONG PARTS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS...AS WELL AS THE OHIO AND MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT ENEWD FROM ND/SRN
MANITOBA TO WRN ONTARIO...WELL TO THE E OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE TROUGH
THAT WILL APPROACH THE PAC NW.  A MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME AND
ASSOCIATED DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PERSIST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE DESERT SW.  FARTHER E...A DIFFUSE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM
THE OH VALLEY TO TX WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS OVER
INDIANA...AR...AND S TX.  A SEPARATE VORTICITY MAX WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN EJECT NEWD/ENEWD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...WITH A
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM NEAR THE SC/NC
COASTS ALONG A STALLED FRONT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA...BUT THE SEVERE STORM RISK WILL
BE LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND/OR WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. 

...CENTRAL AZ THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
A LOW-END TRANSITION-TYPE EVENT IS UNDERWAY AS A WEAK SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EWD TO THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SW FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL AND WRN AZ.  BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REMAIN ACROSS S CENTRAL AZ...AND THE MODIFIED
12Z PHX SOUNDING SUPPORTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE AOA 1500 J/KG WITH DCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE RIM WITH OTHER STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE INTO
THE LOWER DESERTS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION LOADING AND STRONG DOWNDRAFTS IN A STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 08/31/2015

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SPC Aug 31, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1221 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE
CONUS...WITH STRONGER WLYS ALOFT REMAINING GENERALLY CONFINED ACROSS
CANADA AND THE PAC NW. A WEAK PERTURBATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
CNTRL ROCKIES INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY WITH ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY OVERNIGHT...BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS AT BEST. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN A
MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS ACROSS THE GULF COAST INTO FL...BUT WARM
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LIMIT TSTM INTENSITY.

..ROGERS.. 08/31/2015

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VALID 311700Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

..COHEN.. 08/31/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE NRN PLAINS NEWD INTO CANADA
TODAY...A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE NRN TIER OF STATES WITHIN THE CONUS. UPPER RIDGING
WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND SWRN STATES. AT THE SFC...
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL
LIKEWISE MOVE NEWD OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING EWD/SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS SHOULD NOT ALIGN WITH RH VALUES LOW ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER AREA. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY ELEVATED
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE BRIEF/SPOTTY NATURE OF EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUES TO PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED DESIGNATION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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