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  Saturday October 23, 2021

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 23 22:39:02 UTC 2021

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 23 22:39:02 UTC 2021.


SPC MD 1885

MD 1885 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KS...WESTERN OK...SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE
MD 1885 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1885
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Areas affected...South central KS...western OK...southeast TX
Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 232148Z - 232315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercell development possible along the dryline
the next couple of hours, with an attendant threat for isolated
large hail and/or strong outflow gusts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows a couple of areas of
deepening cumulus and initial orphan anvils along the dryline north
of Childress TX and southwest of Pratt KS.  Surface temperatures in
the upper 80s with dewpoints of 56-60 suggest that vertical mixing
has been sufficiently deep to remove convective inhibition in a
narrow zone along the dryline, such that a storm or two may form
late this afternoon.  Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg) and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt appear favorable for splitting
supercells capable of producing isolated large hail and/or strong
outflow gusts.  The main uncertainty is storm coverage given the
lack of stronger forcing for ascent, and the onset of nocturnal
cooling and associated increases in convective inhibition.  Thus, do
not anticipate the need for a watch at this point, though a widely
spaced storm or two could pose a severe threat for a couple of hours
this evening.

..Thompson.. 10/23/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   38229851 38399844 38409826 38289801 38039806 37679824
            37169854 36629895 35789947 34819989 34770020 34920031
            35180027 36709944 37619879 38229851 

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SPC Oct 23, 2021 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Large hail is expected with thunderstorms late tonight across
portions of the central Plains and Lower Missouri Valley region.

...Central Plains through Lower Missouri Valley...

Some chance exists for an isolated severe storm or two to develop
across south central KS near triple point region and southwest along
dryline this afternoon. Primary severe threat is expected to evolve
later this evening within warm advection regime north of warm front
from northeast KS into southeast NE and northern MO, with isolated
large hail the main threat.

..Dial.. 10/23/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/

...Northeast KS/southeast NE to northern MO area overnight...
Elevated thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over southwest MO
and vicinity in association with low-level warm advection on the
nose of a 40 kt west-southwesterly low-level jet.  Buoyancy, lapse
rates, and vertical shear have remained marginal for large
hail-producing storms through the overnight and morning hours, and
any hail threat should diminish gradually by early afternoon as warm
advection weakens.  The focus for additional thunderstorm
development will then shift to early tonight as warm advection and
the low-level jet again strengthen.  A continued influx of low-level
moisture from TX will contribute to destabilization in the warm
sector through the afternoon.  The warm sector should largely remain
capped through the afternoon, aside from a low probability of
isolated, surface-based storm development along the dryline where
deep mixing could sufficiently remove convective inhibition.

The main storm threat will start tonight in the 02-06z time frame,
as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens to near 50 kt and warm
advection likewise increases.  The deepest lift and parcel
saturation is expected a little north of the surface warm front
(near I-70 tonight) and along the northeast edge of the steepest
midlevel lapse rates, with clusters of elevated storms expected to
spread eastward and persist through the early morning hours.
Effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, modest hodograph curvature within
the storm inflow layer, and MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg will support
the potential for embedded/elevated supercells capable of producing
occasional large hail up to about 1.75" diameter overnight.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

No changes have been made to the outlook. See the previous
discussion below for more details.

..Dean.. 10/23/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021/

...Synopsis...
As a coupled mid-level trough and surface low progress to the east
towards the Missouri Valley tomorrow afternoon, dry and breezy
conditions are expected to accompany the post-dryline environment
across the southern High Plains. Several guidance members depict
15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20% RH
immediately behind the dryline, likely lasting for at least a few
hours around afternoon peak heating. Given the lack of recent or
forecast precipitation, along with multiple preceding days of
dry/breezy conditions, finer fuels should remain at least marginally
receptive to fire spread. Elevated highlights have been introduced
where guidance agreement is strongest in placing the dry/windy
post-dryline environment, and where the greatest fuels receptiveness
is expected.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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