RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 183 TORNADO IA IL MO 192000Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN IOWA
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
SHENANDOAH IOWA TO 40 MILES NORTH OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW
181...WW 182...
DISCUSSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
MISSOURI BORDER...ALONG A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER MIGRATING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY...WHILE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE NEXT MID-LEVEL
JET STRONG NOSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONGEST STORMS MAY
INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING...WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
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WW 182 TORNADO OK 191915Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 182
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
215 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 215 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH OF ARDMORE OKLAHOMA. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...WW 181...
DISCUSSION...THE INITIATION OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEARS LIKELY
ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE ADVECTING AWAY FROM THE DRYLINE ON 40-50 KT DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY MEAN FLOW. AS ACTIVITY PROGRESSES THROUGH A
MOIST UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE CAPE...THE RISK FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. BY EARLY EVENING...A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL CONTINUE TO ENLARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...MAINTAINING THE RISK
FOR TORNADOES ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A COUPLE OF LONG-LIVED/LONG
TRACK SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
...KERR
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WW 181 TORNADO IA KS MO NE 191850Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST IOWA
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 115 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
FALLS CITY NEBRASKA TO 45 MILES SOUTH OF WICHITA KANSAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...WW 180...
DISCUSSION...RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE EXIT REGION OF A 500 MB JET STREAK WILL AID STORM
INITIATION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY... ESPECIALLY INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION BEGINS TO
CONSOLIDATE... WITH THE UPSCALE GROWTH OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. STORMS WILL SPREAD
INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST IOWA AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...BEFORE
DAMAGING WINDS BECOME A MORE PROMINENT RISK THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...KERR
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WW 180 TORNADO IA MN WI 191810Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 180
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
110 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN IOWA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WESTERN WISCONSIN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 110 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
REDWOOD FALLS MINNESOTA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF WATERLOO
IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 179...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND INTENSIFY NEAR A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC
VORTICITY CENTER AS IT MIGRATES NORTHWARD FROM IOWA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. AIDED BY AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY...AND
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.
...KERR
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WW 179 SEVERE TSTM FL GA 191655Z - 192300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 179
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1255 PM UNTIL
700 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
MACON GEORGIA TO 35 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
DISCUSSION...WEAK TO MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR BENEATH NORTHERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF ATLANTA...WHERE LATEST
VWP DATA INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 30-40 KT REAR INFLOW JET.
WITH FURTHER HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...ADDITIONAL STORM AND
SURFACE COLD POOL INTENSIFICATION AND SOUTHWARD ACCELERATION IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 33035.
...KERR
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WW 0183 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0183 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0182 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0182 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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WW 0181 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 181
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...TOP...EAX...DDC...GID...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 181
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC071-145-192140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FREMONT PAGE
KSC001-003-005-007-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-035-041-043-045-
049-053-059-061-073-077-079-085-087-089-091-095-099-103-105-107-
111-113-115-117-121-123-125-127-131-133-139-143-149-151-155-157-
159-161-169-173-177-185-191-197-201-205-207-209-192140-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON
BARBER BROWN BUTLER
CHASE CHAUTAUQUA CLAY
CLOUD COFFEY COWLEY
DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS
ELK ELLSWORTH FRANKLIN
GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER
HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON
JEWELL JOHNSON KINGMAN
LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINCOLN
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WW 0180 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 180
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..ROGERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...DMX...FSD...MPX...
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 180
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
IAC005-011-013-015-017-019-023-025-033-037-041-043-055-059-061-
063-065-067-069-073-075-079-081-083-089-091-105-109-113-127-131-
147-151-169-171-187-189-191-195-197-192140-
IA
. IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLAMAKEE BENTON BLACK HAWK
BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN
BUTLER CALHOUN CERRO GORDO
CHICKASAW CLAY CLAYTON
DELAWARE DICKINSON DUBUQUE
EMMET FAYETTE FLOYD
FRANKLIN GREENE GRUNDY
HAMILTON HANCOCK HARDIN
HOWARD HUMBOLDT JONES
KOSSUTH LINN MARSHALL
MITCHELL PALO ALTO POCAHONTAS
STORY TAMA WEBSTER
WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH
WRIGHT
MNC003-013-015-019-023-025-033-037-039-043-045-047-049-053-055-
059-063-067-073-079-083-085-091-093-099-101-103-109-121-123-127-
129-131-139-141-143-145-147-149-151-157-161-163-165-169-171-173-
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WW 0179 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW CSG TO
35 SE CSG TO 40 S MCN TO 10 E VDI.
..ROGERS..05/19/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 179
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC003-023-031-047-079-089-192140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL
HAMILTON MADISON NASSAU
GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071-
075-081-087-091-093-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-
205-209-229-239-243-253-259-261-271-273-275-277-279-287-299-305-
307-309-315-321-192140-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN
BRANTLEY BROOKS CALHOUN
CAMDEN CHARLTON CLAY
CLINCH COFFEE COLQUITT
COOK CRISP DECATUR
DODGE DOOLY DOUGHERTY
EARLY ECHOLS GLYNN
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MD 0701 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR NWRN OK...ERN OK PANHANDLE...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0701
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NWRN OK...ERN OK PANHANDLE...FAR NERN TX
PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 192027Z - 192130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND AND HAIL THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY
DEVELOPING TSTMS ACROSS THE ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR NWRN
OK. COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A ZONE OF BROAD DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER
IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING
TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND FAR NWRN OK.
SFC ANALYSIS FROM 20Z INDICATES A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MERGE
WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS NWRN OK. A TSTM FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
WITHIN RELATIVELY MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR NEAR 20 WSW AVK...BUT
APPEARS TO NOW BE POSITIONED BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT NOTED ON SFC OBS.
FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL HIGH-BASED CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ROBUST
IN THE PAST 1-2 HRS. DESPITE DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR...STEEP
LOW-/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 500 J/KG.
THIS...ALONG WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW...COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED
THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HRS...BEFORE INSTABILITY WANES FURTHER AS DRIER UPSTREAM AIR
CONTINUES SPREADING SEWD.
..ROGERS/KERR.. 05/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...
LAT...LON 36519821 36329854 36189937 36240059 36480088 36870102
36970030 36979897 36919829 36519821
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MD 0699 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE TN THROUGH NERN AL
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0699
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN THROUGH NERN AL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 191943Z - 192115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WWD AND SWWD THROUGH MIDDLE
TN AND NERN AL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRONGER ACTIVITY
WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A LARGE CLUSTER OF ONGOING MULTICELL
STORMS EXTENDS FROM NRN GA THROUGH ERN MIDDLE TN. WEST OF THIS
ACTIVITY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ALONG THE ERN
FRINGE OF THE STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME WITH MLCAPE AROUND
3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT STRONGER CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION EXISTS WITH WWD EXTENT INTO THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
WHILE SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVOR WSWWD PROPAGATION OF THE
STORMS...WLY MID-UPPER FLOW AND AT LEAST MODEST CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION MAY BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR RAPID WWD DEVELOPMENT AND
LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
NEVERTHELESS...STORMS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT LEAST
SLOWLY WWD AND SWWD THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME NWWD BACKBUILDING MIGHT
ALSO OCCUR. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
..DIAL/KERR.. 05/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 36208632 35608585 34448553 34038594 34298659 35298673
36018676 36208632
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Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
EASTERN KANSAS
WESTERN MISSOURI
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MIDWEST...AND MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
ROCKIES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE AREA OF GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF EASTERN
KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS IN THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..HART/KERR.. 05/19/2013
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS OK...SERN KS...EXTREME
NWRN AR...AND SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
SWRN TX TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY...
SECONDARY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...ON THE ORDER OF 60KT AT 500 MB...IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO NRN OK BY 21/00Z.
WHILE LATE DAY1 CONVECTION MAY DISTURB LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN KS INTO MO...IT APPEARS LARGE SCALE INFLUENCE OF
APPROACHING SPEED MAX SHOULD SHARPEN SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK BY
PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR RENEWED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MDT RISK REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF HAIL...MAY BE ONGOING
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS SERN KS/MO ALONG THE NOSE OF
VEERED LLJ. THIS CONVECTION MAY TEMPORARILY DISPLACE THE SYNOPTIC
FRONT OR PERHAPS EVEN PRODUCE OUTFLOW THAT BECOMES A FOCUS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
IS EXPECTED ACROSS WEST TX INTO SWRN OK WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SOAR INTO THE 90S. ALONG/NORTH OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL JET
CORE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SUCH THAT DEEP CONVECTION
WILL EASILY DEVELOP ALONG AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTO MO AND SHARPENING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE FARTHER WEST. IN
FACT...TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY 20-21Z ACROSS OK WHERE SBCAPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. FORECAST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...IN EXCESS OF 50KT THROUGH 6KM...AND THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY
MOIST WARM SECTOR FAVOR NUMEROUS SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AT LEAST
THROUGH MID EVENING OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS AND WITH TIME ONE OR MORE
MCS/S SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING LLJ OVER OK. AMPLE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU OF TX SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING AT LEAST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SPEED
MAX WILL ROTATE NEWD ACROSS IA/IL INTO MN/WI DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS FEATURE WILL SERVE TO INCREASE UVV ACROSS A FAIRLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF SHARP WARM FRONT THAT WILL
EXTEND FROM LOW NEAR THE ND/SD/MN BORDER...EWD INTO NRN WI AT PEAK
HEATING. WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE/SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL
IN DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MN/WI AND SBCAPE COULD EASILY RISE TO NEAR
2000 J/KG. DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS
AIRMASS AND WITH RELATIVELY LOW CLOUD BASES ISOLATED TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL MAY BE OBSERVED.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2013
Read more
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK TO WRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM
NCNTRL TX TO CNTRL MN...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MIDDLE TN INTO
SRN GA...
...FEW STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE ACROSS MDT RISK AREA...
STRONG HEATING ACROSS WRN OK HAS REMOVED THE CAP ALONG THE
DRYLINE...PER DEEPENING CU FROM THE RED RIVER NEAR SPS...NWD ACROSS
CADDO COUNTY INTO SCNTRL KS OVER HARPER COUNTY WHERE LIGHTNING IS
NOW OBSERVED WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION. WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
TO RISE THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL EMERGE
ALONG THE DRYLINE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40 INTO ERN KS WHERE VERY
MOIST/BUOYANT AIRMASS CURRENTLY RESIDES. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
ARE SUCH THAT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED...AND IF SUFFICIENT
COUPLING WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OCCURS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY
BE NOTED ACROSS THE MDT RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
INVOF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED ACROSS NERN OK/SERN KS.
ALTHOUGH IT HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE BACKED
A BIT ACROSS THIS REGION AND THIS MAY SERVE TO ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR.
...ERN TN...NERN AL/NWRN GA...
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN TN INTO NERN
AL/NWRN GA TO ACCOUNT FOR NW-SE ORIENTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER THAT
SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD ACROSS THIS REGION. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS UPWARD EVOLVING COMPLEX OF STORMS BEFORE DIURNAL
COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING.
...ELSEWHERE...
EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN AND ONLY MINOR
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO 1630Z FORECAST.
..DARROW.. 05/19/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY
STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A BELT CURVING
CYCLONICALLY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL
PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP OVER A
BROAD AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWARD TO GULF COASTAL AREAS. ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND SIZABLE CAPE ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI.
ADDITIONALLY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK CYCLONIC BELT OF
FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
REGION...LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DO
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NOW
ADVANCING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ATLANTA GA.
...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY... BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY AWAIT FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS IOWA NORTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE...AS ANOTHER CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS IS STILL EXPECTED...AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH APPEARS REASONABLE SUGGESTING INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY
19-20Z.
AIDED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...MAY BE
SUPERCELLS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS WITH STORMS INITIATING AND
ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE 850 MB JET ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONE OR TWO LONG-LIVED TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
Read more
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY REGION. IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE...MID/UPPER FLOW HAS ALREADY
STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...IN A BELT CURVING
CYCLONICALLY OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. WITHIN THIS
REGIME...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO EMERGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE ADDITIONAL
PERTURBATIONS CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY STEEP OVER A
BROAD AREA...FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHWARD TO GULF COASTAL AREAS. ATOP A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER...THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
AND SIZABLE CAPE ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...INCLUDING ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI.
ADDITIONALLY...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK CYCLONIC BELT OF
FLOW DEVELOPING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST
REGION...LIFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND AND HAIL DO
NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION IN STRONGER STORMS...PARTICULARLY
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF AN ORGANIZING STORM CLUSTER NOW
ADVANCING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF ATLANTA GA.
...PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS AIDING INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOME SEVERE
HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY... BUT A MORE
SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAY AWAIT FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION AND WEAKENING INHIBITION ACROSS IOWA NORTHWARD INTO
PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATER TODAY.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THIS INITIAL IMPULSE...AS ANOTHER CONTINUES TO PIVOT EAST OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO
BECOME FOCUSED ALONG/SOUTH AND EAST OF A REMNANT CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY CURVES FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS
INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. A NORTHWARD RETREAT OF THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SOUTHERN KANSAS IS STILL EXPECTED...AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH APPEARS REASONABLE SUGGESTING INITIATION OF STORMS ALONG THE
INTERSECTION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AN EASTWARD ADVANCING
DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BY
19-20Z.
AIDED BY FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM
NOSING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...UPSCALE
CONVECTIVE GROWTH INTO A SUBSTANTIAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES...SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...MAY BE
SUPERCELLS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE EVOLVING CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AS WELL AS WITH STORMS INITIATING AND
ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE DRYLINE...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA. FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE 850 MB JET ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WILL MAINTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH ONE OR TWO LONG-LIVED TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
..KERR/ROGERS.. 05/19/2013
Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VALID 191700Z - 201200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/TX S
PLAINS/WRN N TX...
...ERN NM/TX PANHANDLE/TX S PLAINS/WRN N TX...
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NW OK WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO WRN N TX THEN SWWD TO THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU. OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH WLY WINDS
FROM 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH EXPECTED AMIDST A VERY DRY AND
WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT W OF THE DRYLINE. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND MIN RH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. EXPANDED THE CRITICAL RISK SLIGHTLY NWD IN ERN NM AND
THE WRN TX PANHANDLE AND EWD INTO WRN N TX AS WIND SPEEDS AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 20 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
...SW NM INTO SW TX...
CRITICAL RH VALUES /GENERALLY FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ ARE EXPECTED
AREAS S AND SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA BUT WIND SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH ARE
NOT EXPECTED FOR MORE THAN 3 HOURS. THESE CONDITIONS PRECLUDE A
CRITICAL DELINEATION BUT ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL ANTICIPATED.
...CA CENTRAL VALLEYS...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
..MOSIER.. 05/19/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0223 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
...MUCH OF ERN NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND TX S PLAINS...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH TODAY. STRONG WLY FLOW THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
OVER CNTRL KS WILL DEVELOP S/SE INTO OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
DRYLINE EXTENDING S/SW FROM THIS LOW WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRONG HEATING AND DEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL RESULT IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CRITICAL AREA. WLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND RH VALUES
FROM 6-12 PERCENT. DRY FUELS AND ONGOING DROUGHT WILL COMBINE WITH
THESE CONDITIONS TO CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE RISK.
...SW NM INTO SW TX...
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CRITICAL...CONDITIONS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MARGINAL DUE TO LIGHTER WIND SPEEDS FROM 10-15 MPH. CRITICALLY LOW
RH VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED...FROM 10-15 PERCENT.
...CA CENTRAL VALLEYS...
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL CA VALLEYS TODAY
AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS DUE TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. SPEEDS FROM 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL
LEAD TO RH VALUES FALLING INTO THE 15-25 PERCENT RANGE. THIS COULD
LEAD TO AN ELEVATED THREAT WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SRN NM INTO W TX...
NO CHANGES NEEDED. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
..MOSIER.. 05/19/2013
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0224 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
...SYNOPSIS...
...FAR SRN NM INTO W TX...
A NARROW AREA OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY. A SIMILAR SET UP IS EXPECTED
TO THAT ON DAY 1/SUNDAY. STRONG HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BEHIND A DRYLINE WILL LEAD TO LOW RH VALUES FROM 6-12 PERCENT. W/SW
WINDS AHEAD OF A SWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ENHANCED BY STRONG DEEP
LAYER WESTERLIES THROUGH THE BASE OF SRN ROCKIES/PLAINS
TROUGH...WILL REACH 15-25 MPH.
...CNTRL NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...
BRIEFLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO THE
NORTH OF THE CRITICAL AREA. HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM THIS AREA AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.
ADDITIONALLY...DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...RH VALUES MAY BE MORE MARGINAL
AS WELL FROM 10-20 PERCENT.
...SW CA MOUNTAINS...
A BRIEF OFFSHORE WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS PART OF THE STATE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO SINK S/SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. WIND
SPEEDS AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FAVORED CANYONS AND PASSES BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARGINALLY LOW RH VALUES
FROM 12-18 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED...LEADING TO AN ELEVATED THREAT
WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
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