RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 1 11:40:02 UTC 2021.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 1 11:40:02 UTC 2021.
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 AM CST Mon Mar 01 2021
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.
...Synopsis...
An upper low/shortwave trough over the southern Appalachians will
move offshore by 00z as an upper ridge builds over the Rockies and
High Plains vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will extend from
a low near coastal SC southwestward into the eastern FL Panhandle
Wednesday morning. The front will track southeast across the FL
Peninsula through the period, and isolated thunderstorms are
possible near the front. Decreasing shear and a lack of stronger
forcing, coupled with weak instability, will preclude organized
severe thunderstorm potential.
..Leitman.. 03/01/2021
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 AM CST Mon Mar 01 2021
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in somewhat better agreement compared to
the past couple of days. Overall, severe potential appears low
during the Day 4-8 period. A shortwave upper trough over the western
U.S. will migrate eastward to the southeastern states through Day
5/Fri. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to develop
over central TX and weak Gulf return flow will overspread parts of
coastal TX. Some low-end severe potential could develop ahead of low
and attendant cold front, but moisture return will likely be shallow
and ill-timed with this system. After Friday, surface high pressure
will dominate east of the Rockies, limiting any northward moisture
return through the end of the period.
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