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  Monday February 8, 2016

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 8 16:12:01 UTC 2016

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb  8 16:12:01 UTC 2016.


SPC MD 93

MD 0093 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA
        
MD 0093 Image

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 081124Z - 081730Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 1
INCH/HOUR BETWEEN 12-15Z /7-10 AM EST/ ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MA
AND PARTS OF EASTERN MA...WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS RATE TO
PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  IN ADDITION...THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REMAINS ACROSS THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH COUNTY MA.  

MEANWHILE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SUGGESTING A SEPARATE
SNOW BAND SHOULD DEVELOP A LITTLE FARTHER WEST FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND THROUGH EASTERN CT TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MA BY 15Z...AND MAY PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.  SNOWFALL
RATES IN THIS BAND SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH/HOUR.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SHORT-TERM AND HI-RES GUIDANCE REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE SPATIOTEMPORAL WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA...INCLUDING SNOWFALL RATES AND STRENGTHENING WINDS/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.  GREATEST SNOWFALL RATES AND LIKELIHOOD FOR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MA INCLUDING THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS /SLR/ SHOULD BE
AROUND 8 TO 1 ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...RESULTING IN WETTER
SNOW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS COULD ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.  

AT 11Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED AND RELATIVELY
STRONG SURFACE LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE NC COAST NEAR 35.5N/69W. 
TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ONE OR TWO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
BANDS WITHIN THE OUTERMOST REGIONS OF THE WESTERN THROUGH NORTHERN
PERIPHERIES OF THIS STORM SYSTEM...NOW MOVING INTO CAPE COD...
SOUTHEAST MA AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND.  THESE BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING CONSISTENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE.  AN INCREASE IN UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MA...RESULTING IN GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES
WITHIN THE MESOSCALE BANDING.  IN ADDITION...AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST OF 70W LONGITUDE...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BACK
TO NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THESE TRAJECTORIES
INTO EASTERN MA WILL ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES DUE TO OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW. 

GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...THE STRONGEST SUSTAINED WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF MA INCLUDING
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 KT AND GUSTS
OF 40-45 KT HAVE BEEN MEASURED SINCE 8-10Z AT KACK/KMVY/KFMH.

..PETERS.. 02/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

LAT...LON   41096990 41167097 40897213 40837298 42007260 42517189
            42637149 42757075 42397021 42106992 41636982 41096990 

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SPC Feb 8, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS.

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ESEWD FROM THE MS/OH
VALLEY AREA TO THE APPALACHIANS AND SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.  COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ESEWD FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS TO
THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.  ASCENT IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET...COMBINED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES/WEAK BUOYANCY...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OTHERWISE...DRY AND/OR STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS WITH THE DEEP ERN TROUGH/WRN RIDGE PATTERN.

..THOMPSON/COOK.. 02/08/2016

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SPC Feb 8, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS.

...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
WRN RIDGE-ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS VORT MAX NOW
OVER KY CONTINUES NE INTO SRN OH/WV...WHILE UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DROPS
SE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...POLAR OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR
WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE E OF THE RCKYS IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM
GLANCING SRN NEW ENGLAND.

...SRN OH/KY SEWD INTO CAROLINAS THIS AFTN AND EVE...
SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SHOW A CORRIDOR OF MODEST SFC HEATING/LOW-LVL
CONFLUENCE OVER ERN KY/TN ATTM...ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KY
UPR IMPULSE. FURTHER LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AS THIS
CORRIDOR SHIFTS E/NE INTO SRN WV...WRN VA...AND WRN NC LATER TODAY.
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 30 C AND SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPR VORT...SHALLOW SFC-BASED CONVECTION NOW OVER
REGION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD ISOLD THUNDER...DESPITE
SCANT MOISTURE /PW AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH/.  

FARTHER S...A SECONDARY ZONE OF LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE MAY EVOLVE ALONG
LEE TROUGH FROM ERN GA INTO PIEDMONT SC/NC...BENEATH
AMPLIFYING...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH...WITH PW INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID-50S F...SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD THUNDER WITH ANY DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
CONVECTION THAT DEEPENS ALONG THE TROUGH.

..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 02/08/2016

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