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  Wednesday June 20, 2018

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194

WW 194 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 200305Z - 201000Z
      
WW 0194 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 194
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1005 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southern and East-Central Kansas
  Northwest Oklahoma
  Northeast Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1005 PM
  until 500 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...A linearly organized Mesoscale Convective System continues
to accelerate east/southeastward across west-central Kansas late
this evening. Recent observed wind gusts include 56 knots at Garden
City, Kansas as of 0244Z/944pm CDT. This system will likely spread
into much of southern/central Kansas and possibly northwest Oklahoma
through the early overnight hours, with pockets of embedded wind
damage expected aside from some sporadic hail as well.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south of
Manhattan KS to 25 miles south of Liberal KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 192...WW 193...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
30040.

...Guyer

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193

WW 193 SEVERE TSTM CO 200100Z - 200600Z
      
WW 0193 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
700 PM MDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Colorado

* Effective this Tuesday night from 700 PM until Midnight MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...This watch replaces earlier Tornado Watch 191. At least
isolated severe storms will continue to move generally eastward
across southeast Colorado this evening as a broader convective
system likely evolves from far eastern Colorado into western Kansas.
The tornado risk has largely diminished, but the potential for
isolated large hail and locally severe winds continues. 66 mph winds
were recently (0025Z) measured at La Junta, Colorado.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Springfield CO to 30 miles north northeast of La Junta CO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...WW 192...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27025.

...Guyer

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192

WW 192 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 192035Z - 200400Z
      
WW 0192 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
335 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western and North Central Kansas
  Southern Nebraska

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until
  1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail
    events to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Storms developing over western Kansas and southern
Nebraska are likely to intensify and be capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts into the evening hours.  Other severe
storms over northeast Colorado will progress eastward toward
northwest Kansas this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 5 miles west southwest of
Liberal KS to 80 miles east northeast of Mccook NE. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 191...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Weiss

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 194 Status Reports

WW 0194 Status Updates
      
WW 0194 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0194 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193 Status Reports

WW 0193 Status Updates
      
WW 0193 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 193

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW CAO
TO 35 W SPD TO 35 SW LAA TO 10 WSW LAA TO 15 NNW LAA TO 25 N LAA
TO 40 NNE LAA.

..SQUITIERI..06/20/18

ATTN...WFO...PUB...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 193 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC009-099-200440-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BACA                 PROWERS             


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192 Status Reports

WW 0192 Status Updates
      
WW 0192 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 192

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E LAA TO
45 E LAA TO 35 WNW GCK TO 30 N GCK TO 55 NNE GCK TO 30 SSW HLC TO
5 SSW HLC TO 30 NNE HLC TO 45 SW EAR TO 35 WSW EAR TO 30 W EAR.

WW 192 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200400Z.

..SQUITIERI..06/20/18

ATTN...WFO...GLD...TOP...DDC...GID...ICT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 192 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC029-051-055-075-089-093-105-123-135-141-143-147-157-163-165-
167-183-195-201-200400-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CLOUD                ELLIS               FINNEY              
HAMILTON             JEWELL              KEARNY              
LINCOLN              MITCHELL            NESS                
OSBORNE              OTTAWA              PHILLIPS            
REPUBLIC             ROOKS               RUSH                
RUSSELL              SMITH               TREGO               
WASHINGTON           


NEC001-035-059-061-083-099-129-137-169-181-200400-

NE 
.    NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                CLAY                FILLMORE            
FRANKLIN             HARLAN              KEARNEY             
Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 191 Status Reports

WW 0191 Status Updates
      
WW 0191 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 191

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM  AND 10 SSE
TAD TO 5 E TAD TO 15 NNE TAD TO 35 NNE TAD TO 15 SE PUB TO PUB TO
15 S COS TO 25 NW COS TO 20 SW DEN TO 30 NW DEN TO 20 WSW FCL TO
35 W FCL TO 50 SSW LAR.

..SQUITIERI..06/19/18

ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB...GLD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 191 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC001-005-009-011-013-017-025-031-035-039-041-061-063-069-071-
073-075-087-089-095-099-101-115-121-123-125-200040-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                ARAPAHOE            BACA                
BENT                 BOULDER             CHEYENNE            
CROWLEY              DENVER              DOUGLAS             
ELBERT               EL PASO             KIOWA               
KIT CARSON           LARIMER             LAS ANIMAS          
LINCOLN              LOGAN               MORGAN              
OTERO                PHILLIPS            PROWERS             
PUEBLO               SEDGWICK            WASHINGTON          
WELD                 YUMA                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC MD 799

MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192... FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
MD 0799 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Much of central/western Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192...

Valid 200233Z - 200430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across much of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0192. An additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
downstream within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Earlier multicell clusters/transient supercells have
grown upscale into an MCS with two primary linear segments. One
segment is currently propagating east into northeast Kansas, with
the other segment moving southeast across southwest Kansas. Within
the last two hours, multiple reports of marginal severe wind gusts
have been received in association with both linear segments,
suggesting that damaging winds have become the predominant threat.
With effective bulk shear vectors oriented roughly perpendicular to
the linear segments, the MCS is expected to remain organized, with a
damaging wind threat continuing.

Large hail remains a concern for a supercell located in Texas
County, Oklahoma. Given adequate effective bulk shear/buoyancy and
0-3km helicity greater than 250 m2/s2, the severe hail threat may
continue for at least a few more hours.

As such, an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
downstream within the next hour.

..Squitieri/Jirak/Guyer.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
PUB...

LAT...LON   37870263 38240236 39250128 39650010 39579899 39949817
            40479707 40339656 39779657 39019689 38279750 37679828
            37079890 36679957 36570041 36650132 36770201 37870263 

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SPC Jun 20, 2018 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Valid 200100Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm complex should propagate across eastern Colorado
and western Kansas tonight. Large hail and damaging winds are the
primary threats.

...Central Plains...

Multiple thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of a pronounced
short-wave trough over the central Plains this evening. Over the
next few hours it appears an upward evolving complex of storms
should materialize over western KS where an MCS is expected by late
evening. 00z sounding from DDC exhibits steep lapse rates and ample
buoyancy for robust convection. With a reservoir of instability in
place across southeast CO/southwest KS it appears the MCS should
begin to propagate southeast toward northwest OK. Confidence in this
scenario is increasing given the progression of the short-wave
trough into this region by 20/06z.

..Darrow.. 06/20/2018

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