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  Wednesday October 1, 2014

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 1 05:08:01 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct  1 05:08:01 UTC 2014.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 1 05:08:01 UTC 2014.

SPC Oct 1, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

...CNTRL/ERN KS...SERN NEB...FAR NWRN OK...
SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SERN NEB WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. OTHER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED
OVER SWRN KS/NWRN OK ALONG THE STALLED DRYLINE. 

WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER 00Z
SOUNDINGS...STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE BECOMING SEVERE.
HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR
CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. WARM ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW-REINFORCED BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS WILL
MAINTAIN LIFT AND SCATTERED STORMS THERE TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED
HAIL POSSIBLE ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO S CNTRL KS/NWRN OK MAINLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS TO SWLY TONIGHT.

..JEWELL.. 10/01/2014

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SPC Oct 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN AND NRN KS...SRN AND
ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL MO...FAR NERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KANSAS
INTO WESTERN MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY.
OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS FROM
EASTERN COLORADO INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SWRN KS INTO
NWRN TX. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF ERN KS INTO
MO EARLY IN THE DAY AND WILL RESULT IN ONGOING AREAS OF STORMS WHICH
WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER ON.

BEHIND THIS DISTURBANCE...SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN ALTHOUGH
HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL BE NEUTRAL. STILL...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND THE PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S E OF A DRYLINE WILL
RESULT IN AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
MULTIPLE POTENTIAL AREAS EXTENDING FROM CO INTO MO THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

...ERN KS INTO WRN MO...NERN OK...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN KS INTO MO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IN A ZONE OF
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS EARLY ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WHEN HEATING NEAR THE WRN FRINGE OF
THE OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE RESULTS IN STRONG INSTABILITY.
THE STRONGEST SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO EXIST IN THESE AREAS WITH
20-25 KT 850 MB FLOW ATOP S/SELY SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY
RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SRH POTENTIALLY ON THE ORDER OF 200-300
M2/S2. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY...AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES MAY ALSO OCCUR DEPENDING ON HOW THE LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY SITUATION DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY.

FARTHER E ACROSS CNTRL MO...EARLY STORMS THAT FORM OVER ERN KS/WRN
MO MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS FURTHER SUGGEST THAT EVEN IF THE STORM MODE
IS LINEAR...EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION MAY EXIST.

...CNTRL/ERN NEB DURING THE DAY...
A WEAK LOW-PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS CNTRL
NEB DURING THE DAY. STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATE PROFILES
WILL LEAD TO AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE WITH ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

...ERN CO LATE AFTERNOON INTO KS AND NEB OVERNIGHT...
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A SURGING COLD
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CO BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY GROW UPSCALE AS THE FRONT EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE LIKELY INITIALLY...WITH A
SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE STRONG FORCING INTERACTS WITH STRONGER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE OVER NEB AND KS. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ONLY A SHALLOW SURFACE STABLE LAYER IN PLACE. 

...WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF HAIL WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
NEAR A RETREATING DRYLINE. HEATING WILL BE STRONG...AND A NARROW
ZONE NEAR THE DRYLINE SHOULD BECOME UNCAPPED. WHILE CONVERGENCE IS
WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THEY FORM...THEY WILL
LIKELY BE CELLULAR WITH A HAIL THREAT.

..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 10/01/2014

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SPC Oct 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX...

...SUMMARY...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...MIDWEST TO CNTRL TX...

LOW LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS THE SRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY NEWD
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  PRIMARY FEATURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS RAPID EJECTION IS AN INTENSIFYING SPEED MAX
THAT WILL DIG INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY 03/12Z.  THIS SECONDARY
FEATURE SHOULD AID DEEPENING CYCLONE/SHARPENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE.

ALTHOUGH FRONTAL INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG PROGRESSIVE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING FAIRLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE AS FAR
NORTH AS NRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES. 
WHAT LITTLE CINH IS OBSERVED AT 12Z AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH
BY 17-18Z SUCH THAT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD READILY DEVELOP ALONG WIND
SHIFT ACROSS ERN KS/OK.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MATURE INTO A
EXTENSIVE SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY...SWWD INTO
NERN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON.  GREATEST BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE
FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU SWWD INTO TX AND HAIL IS MOST LIKELY ALONG
THIS PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE.  MEAN SWLY WIND WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 30-35KT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE
THAT SHOULD ADVANCE TOWARD THE MS RIVER DURING THE EVENING HOURS. 
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEEP
ROTATION...STORM MODE FAVORS LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AND DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

..DARROW.. 10/01/2014

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