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  Saturday June 25, 2016

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297

WW 297 SEVERE TSTM ND 250325Z - 251000Z
      
WW 0297 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 297
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 PM CDT FRI JUN 24 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 1025 PM
  UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GUSTS
OVER 80 MPH IN EASTERN MONTANA WILL MAINTAIN THAT THREAT AS THEY
CROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.  ALSO...OTHER STORM
DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH...INITIALLY OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...MAY BECOME SEVERE WHEN ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY RICHER
MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN A FEW HOURS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST
OF GARRISON NORTH DAKOTA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF GRAND FORKS NORTH
DAKOTA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 296...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25045.


...EDWARDS

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297 Status Reports

WW 0297 Status Updates
      
WW 0297 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 297

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE GFK
TO 25 S DVL TO 60 WSW DVL TO 40 NNW DVL TO 60 N DVL.

..DIAL..06/25/16

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 297 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NDC005-019-027-035-063-067-069-071-095-099-250840-

ND 
.    NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BENSON               CAVALIER            EDDY                
GRAND FORKS          NELSON              PEMBINA             
PIERCE               RAMSEY              TOWNER              
WALSH                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 296 Status Reports

WW 0296 Status Updates
      
WW 0296 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 296

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E MLS TO
30 ENE MLS TO 20 NNE BHK TO 20 SSE SDY TO 45 W N60 TO 60 WNW MOT
TO 70 NNE ISN.

..PETERS..06/25/16

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...BIS...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 296 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

MTC017-025-250540-

MT 
.    MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CUSTER               FALLON              


NDC001-007-011-013-025-033-041-053-061-087-089-250540-

ND 
.    NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BILLINGS            BOWMAN              
BURKE                DUNN                GOLDEN VALLEY       
HETTINGER            MCKENZIE            MOUNTRAIL           
SLOPE                STARK               


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC MD 1051

MD 1051 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297... FOR NERN ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN MN
MD 1051 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1051
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN ND THROUGH EXTREME NRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...

VALID 250759Z - 250930Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT OVER NERN ND IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
MARGINAL AND...DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WW 297 CAN PROBABLY
BE CANCELED BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 10Z. STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER NRN MN MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS NEXT HOUR OR
SO...BUT OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN TOO LIMITED IN DURATION AND
SPATIAL EXTENT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WW.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NERN THROUGH SCNTRL ND IS MOVING EAST AT AROUND 45 KT. DESPITE THE
STRONG CONVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THIS BOUNDARY...OVERALL TREND HAS
BEEN FOR STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH DUE TO LARGE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH EWD EXPANSION OF WARM EML PLUME.
OTHERWISE...A FEW STORMS WILL PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR SO OVER EXTREME
NRN MN WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT...POSING
A RISK FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

..DIAL.. 06/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON   48969838 48989730 48889490 48409418 47919489 48409682
            48229849 48329916 48659905 48969838 

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SPC Jun 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MN AND
ADJACENT NWRN WI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS PARTS OF IA AND ERN
NEB...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT
RISK...AND EXTENDING SWWD TO NERN NM...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF NC/SC/GA...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE
AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN AND INTO PARTS OF THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY AREA ON
SATURDAY...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS
KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  A FEW STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN
ATLANTIC/AWAY FROM THE ERN SEABOARD...THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT WITH
RESPECT TO CONVECTIVE WEATHER WILL BE A LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  OTHERWISE...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS
PROGGED TO PREVAIL OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL SURGE IS FORECAST ACROSS MN/IA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS WI AND WRN UPPER MI THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY FARTHER TO THE SW WILL SHIFT MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.  FINALLY...A WEAK/REMNANT COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. IS FORECAST TO SAG GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
GA/SC AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...UPPER MS VALLEY AREA SWWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY N OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER -- SHOULD BE
ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH SOME POTENTIAL THAT THE
SRN FRINGE OF THESE STORMS AND SOME ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT MAY
BRUSH PARTS OF THE NRN MN VICINITY DURING THE MORNING.

MEANWHILE...STEADILY FALLING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS MN THROUGH THE
DAY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW AND THE APPROACH OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN A N-S ZONE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AS MODERATE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.  WHILE LIKELY DEVELOPING IN A NNE-SSW
BAND...STORMS MAY REMAIN CELLULAR INITIALLY...WITH INCREASINGLY
STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTING SUPERCELL STORM MODE AND
ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.  WITH TIME...STORMS CROSSING MN
AND -- DURING THE EVENING -- SHIFTING INTO WI SHOULD BECOME MORE
LINEAR IN ORGANIZATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS TO POSSIBLY BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE RISK.

FARTHER TO THE SW...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED FROM IA SWWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG THE FRONT.  WHILE AMPLE CAPE WILL
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY
WITH SWWD EXTENT ACROSS THIS PART OF THE AREA.  THEREFORE...SEVERE
RISK SHOULD LIKEWISE BECOME LESS WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT ACROSS KS
AND SWWD INTO NERN NM.

SEVERE RISK ALONG THE ENTIRE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD LAST THROUGH MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES PORTION OF THE RISK AREA WHERE SOME THREAT
MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA...
DIURNAL HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT
IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION...WHICH WILL FUEL DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS -- PRIMARILY INVOF THE COLD FRONT
SAGGING GRADUALLY SWD ACROSS THE AREA...AND AN ASSOCIATED/WEAK
FRONTAL WAVE PROGGED INVOF THE SC/GA VICINITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...REMNANT/MODEST NWLY MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT A FEW LOOSELY ORGANIZED
STORMS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY
MARGINAL HAIL AS THEY SHIFT SWD/SEWD INTO EARLY EVENING.

..GOSS/COOK.. 06/25/2016

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SPC Jun 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SWRN GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...OZARKS...SRN PLAINS AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MICHIGAN. MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION AND OHIO VALLEY WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS.

...LOWER MI...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS A AN ASSOCIATED 60 TO 75 KT MID-LEVEL JET MOVES
ACROSS WRN PARTS OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A MOIST
AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS LOWER MI. SFC HEATING
ALONG WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F ACROSS LOWER MI
SHOULD RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT BY AFTERNOON. SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION TO THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN LOWER MI AT 21Z/SUN SHOW
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH SUBSTANTIAL
SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND 40 KT OF FLOW AT 850 MB. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH
ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

...SWRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID TO
UPPER MS VALLEY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION SWWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS. ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY AID DOWNDRAFT
ACCELERATION WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 06/25/2016

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SPC Jun 25, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL PLAINS
OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON
MONDAY WITH NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW ESTABLISHED OVER THE CNTRL AND
NRN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CNTRL PLAINS WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM KS NWWD INTO
NE CO AND WRN NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD BE IN
THE 60S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE
CO AND SE WY WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS THAT A CLUSTER OR LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MAY MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

CONCERNING THE SEVERE THREAT...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NE CO FOR
21Z/MON SHOW MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG...SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS...0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND STEEP LAPSE
RATES. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF CELLS CONGEAL INTO A LINE SEGMENT...THEN A
SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE
SUBTLE NATURE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN...SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT EVIDENT ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON APPEAR TO WARRANT THE
ADDITION OF A SLIGHT RISK IN THE CNTRL PLAINS.

...SRN AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE MODELS
DEVELOP A NARROW CORRIDOR OF INSTABILITY BY MIDDAY. SFC HEATING
ALONG WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
WEAK ALONG THE FRONT...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ADEQUATE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS
NEAR PEAK HEATING.

..BROYLES.. 06/25/2016

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...ACCOMPANIED BY A BELT OF ENHANCED
FLOW ALONG ITS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE SFC RESPONSE WILL
FEATURE A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. ELSEWHERE...BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER
MS VALLEY.

...PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30
MPH WILL LIKELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MT AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS...WITH WINDS AROUND 15-20 MPH FARTHER SOUTH.
MEANWHILE...DEEP MIXING AMIDST A DRY AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES
FALLING TO AROUND 10-20 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF WY AND 15-25 PERCENT
FARTHER NORTH/EAST. MOST LOCATIONS DID NOT REALIZE SIGNIFICANT
WETTING RAINFALL ON FRIDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY WILL FURTHER DRY
AVAILABLE FUELS. AS SUCH...ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED. MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONCERNS ARE NOT
EXPECTED HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE DISPLACED
FROM THE LOWEST RH VALUES. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE COULD BE WARRANTED
IF CONFIDENCE IN A GREATER OVERLAP INCREASES.

...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED
LOCATIONS...WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IN
RESPONSE TO A NOCTURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN
COMBINATION WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY...THESE WINDS /SUSTAINED
AROUND 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS/ WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN RESPONSE TO
WEAKENING RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THEREFORE...A
CRITICAL COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH VALUES IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON A
SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD BASIS...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.
NONETHELESS...NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT
AGAIN THIS EVENING AROUND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SANTA
BARBARA...KERN...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. AS
SUCH...ELEVATED/LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

..PICCA.. 06/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO...WHILE RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. FARTHER SOUTH...RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN...AS THE CENTER OF ANOTHER RIDGE
REMAINS ESTABLISHED NEAR THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

WITH THE STRONGEST WESTERLY FLOW SHIFTING EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...ENHANCED SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE DISPLACED FROM LOWER
RH VALUES AND MORE FAVORABLE FUELS TO THE WEST. AS SUCH...WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED/CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY BE
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN CA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY IN TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS OF SANTA
BARBARA...KERN...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. HOWEVER...WINDS
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY...PRECLUDING MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS.

..PICCA.. 06/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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