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  Thursday May 28, 2015

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Thu May 28 11:07:01 UTC 2015

No watches are valid as of Thu May 28 11:07:01 UTC 2015.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 28 11:07:01 UTC 2015.

SPC May 28, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN VT TO TX...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL...WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM
VERMONT...SOUTHWEST INTO TEXAS.

...VT TO TX...

PLUME OF TROPICAL AIR WITH PW VALUES OF 1.5-1.75 INCHES WILL EXTEND
ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM TX INTO NRN VT DURING THE DAY3 PERIOD. 
SCT-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
WITHIN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE AND WEAK-MODEST LAPSE RATES.  VERTICAL
SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE SEASONALLY WEAK AND
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A FLOW REGIME
GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED BY 500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 20KT. 
STRONGER FLOW WILL BE NOTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EJECT ACROSS ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC.  HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY ROBUST ACROSS NY/VT AND FOR THIS REASON STORMS THAT
FORM WITHIN STRONGER FLOW SHOULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN SEVERE
CHARACTERISTICS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND SWWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO TX BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MOST
STORMS SHOULD BE SUB-SEVERE.

..DARROW.. 05/28/2015

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SPC May 28, 2015 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR REGIME WILL BE NOTED EARLY IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD.  WITH TIME UPPER TROUGHING WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE WRN
U.S. AND MODEST SWLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS REGION WHERE RETURN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST CONVECTION.  IF LATEST
ECWMF IS ACCURATE...SCT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BEGINNING DAY6.  WHILE SEVERE
MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION TUE/WED...PREDICTABILITY
REMAINS TOO LOW AND FORECAST SHEAR A BIT TOO WEAK TO DELINEATE A
SEVERE AREA THIS PERIOD.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TODAY...WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. UPPER RIDGING WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SFC...A LOW
WILL LIKELY DEEPEN OVER ERN CO/WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF BOTH
UPPER TROUGHS. A LEE SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM THIS
LOW ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR W TX. FURTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...WITH ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OCCURRING
OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

...PORTIONS OF AZ AND NM...
BEHIND A SFC TROUGH/DRYLINE...RH VALUES OF LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF AZ AND NM THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 80S AND 90S. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...SFC WINDS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 15 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION
EXCEPT ON AN ISOLATED/BRIEF BASIS OWING MAINLY TO A WEAK SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE...NO ELEVATED AREA IS NEEDED ACROSS
AZ/NM AT THIS TIME.

...PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SRN FL PENINSULA...
ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF A SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE WRN ATLANTIC WILL BRING DRIER AIR ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SRN FL PENINSULA TODAY. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S...DIURNAL
MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD REDUCE RH VALUES TO 30-40
PERCENT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...BOTH WINDS ALOFT AND AT THE SFC ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER WEAK...WITH SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW AROUND 10-15
MPH...AND A FEW SFC GUSTS ABOVE 15 MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN MARGINAL FUEL
DRYNESS...WINDS FORECAST TO GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH...AND
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI...AN ELEVATED
AREA HAS NOT BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THIS REGION.

..GLEASON.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWWD TO THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA FRI MORNING. THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
EWD OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. AREAS OF LOWERED RH VALUES ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...NRN FL/SRN GA...AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DISPLACED FROM STRONG/GUSTY WINDS FRI AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...NO ELEVATED AREA APPEARS WARRANTED FOR D2/FRI.

..GLEASON.. 05/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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