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  Sunday April 26, 2015

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 26 17:08:02 UTC 2015

No watches are valid as of Sun Apr 26 17:08:02 UTC 2015.


SPC MD 465

MD 0465 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK
MD 0465 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX INCLUDING TX
BIG COUNTRY INTO SOUTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 261555Z - 261800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX...AND EVENTUALLY REACH PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD
POSE A HAIL RISK LATE THIS MORNING...WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OTHERWISE INCREASES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR A WATCH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE BANDS OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX BIG COUNTRY SINCE MID-MORNING
GENERALLY NEAR THE ABILENE AREA AS OF 1530Z. THIS GENERAL INCREASE
SEEMS VERY LIKELY TO CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING IMPLIED INCREASING FORCING-FOR-ASCENT IS
READILY APPARENT INTO WEST TX PER MORNING IR/WV SATELLITE TRENDS. 

SEVERE HAIL MAY BE THE INITIAL RISK LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS
MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STEADILY STREAM
NORTHWARD WITHIN A BROADENING MOIST SECTOR...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
INCREASINGLY CONNECT WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE-BASED
STORMS BECOMING AN INCREASING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...INITIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL TX.
ACCORDINGLY...ISOLATED TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD
ALSO INCREASE.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 04/26/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32870056 34709979 33449718 30789792 31759948 32870056 

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SPC Apr 26, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PART OF TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM DEEP S TX INTO THE SRN PLNS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...
FOUR CORNERS TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS TNGT/EARLY MON AS 80 KT NLY JET STREAK
NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY REFORMS E ACROSS FAR W TX...AND UPSTREAM
RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PAC NW.  

AT LWR LVLS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NNW ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX
TODAY...WHILE WEAK NRN STREAM COLD FRONT SETTLE FARTHER S ACROSS OK
AND AR.  

...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS
THIS PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK. SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VARIABLE STORM MODES AND INTENSITIES
EXPECTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS.  

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
MARITIME AIR ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR DRT ENE NEAR TYR. SATELLITE ALSO
SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL NM THAT
PRECEDES THE AZ TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FARTHER
S IN NRN CHIHUAHUA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...MAY SUPPORT
SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF W TX. OTHER SCTD
STORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE THE EML...ALSO MAY PERSIST ACROSS S TX AND
ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SVR.  

LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SFC
HEATING...RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
FALLS/DCVA EXPECTED TO FOSTER INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF LEE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT/COOL FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NW TX AND SW OK. 
GIVEN STRENGTH AND VERTICALLY-VEERING NATURE OF WIND FIELD...THIS
ACTIVITY COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS TO ARISE FARTHER S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
INVOF LOW-LVL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND OVER N CNTRL TX...AS HEATING
AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE LOCALLY BREACH EML CAP. THESE
STORMS ALSO WILL POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN 40-50 KT
WSWLY DEEP SHEAR.  

BY EARLY EVE...THE CNTRL AND N TX STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
OR MORE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND. LATER TNGT AND EARLY MON...ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH...AND THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
RICH GULF AIR...SUGGEST THAT A SEPARATE MCS OR TWO MAY FORM OVER S
CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A
LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXTENDING THE
RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL FROM EMBEDDED BOWS E/ESE ACROSS THE TX
CSTL PLN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

PARTS OF TX ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
OTLKS AS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY AND LOW-LVL
FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME MORE FOCUSED THAN THEY APPEAR ATTM. 

...SERN STATES...
SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/JG. COUPLED WITH
SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
MULTICELLS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS RISK
APPEARS GREATEST OVER E CNTRL FL...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD AFTN STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STALLING
BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SC...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST WLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH....AND MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/26/2015

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SPC Apr 26, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CNTRL
TX...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN INTO CNTRL AND ERN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PART OF THE FL
PENINSULA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SC...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY. 
VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES...A COUPLE OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE SRN SEGMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL
FORM A CLOSED UPPER LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SRN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z/MONDAY.  AN ASSOCIATED 70-80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN MEXICO WILL
DEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL TX WITHIN THE SRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE EVOLVING
LOW.

AT THE SURFACE...A LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN NM WILL DEVELOP GENERALLY
ESEWD INTO CNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW WITH A
DRYLINE BECOMING ESTABLISHED BY AFTERNOON FROM THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW SWD INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU.  MEANWHILE...A BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE THE NWD MOVEMENT OF
A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

MID-MORNING SATELLITE DATA INDICATE A BELT OF IMPLIED ASCENT
SPREADING EWD THROUGH FAR WRN TX AND FAR ERN NM IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM PRECEDING THE MAIN UPPER-AIR SYSTEM.  AT
THE SAME TIME...AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH W-CNTRL TX ALONG AND TO THE S OF THE WARM
FRONT AND BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SEE 12Z
DRT SOUNDING/.  THE OVERLAP OF THESE PROCESSES SHOULD FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON
NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  INCREASING CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
AND THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS
WITH A RISK FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL.  FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION...SEE MCD 465.

IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLY-DAY ACTIVITY OR ALONG ITS SRN
FLANK...SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TRIPLE POINT OVER NWRN TX SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE ENCOURAGED BY THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF
THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING FROM SWRN TX WHERE THE COMBINATION
OF 1500-2000+ J/KG MLCAPE AND STEADILY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MULTIPLE MCSS OVERNIGHT
WITH THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO ERN TX.  LARGE HAIL AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO REMAIN A CONCERN.  

...FL TODAY...

TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE THIS MORNING ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM THE FAR NERN GULF OF MEXICO
EWD ALONG AN OCF-DAB LINE.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY...DIABATIC
SURFACE HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S SHOULD RESULT MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AMIDST A
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT EXHIBITING A RELATIVELY STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER
WIND FIELD.  AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SOME SUPERCELL
AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 464.

...SC THIS AFTERNOON...

HEATING OF A MOIST AIR MASS PRECEDING A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AT LEAST
A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LATER TODAY.  DIRECT THERMAL
CIRCULATIONS ARISING FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD FOSTER A FEW STORMS BY AFTERNOON WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE OWING TO THE DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONG WNWLY FLOW
ALOFT.

..MEAD/GLEASON.. 04/26/2015

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SPC Apr 26, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND
SERN TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
MONDAY.

...TX TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...
A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM THE NWRN GULF INTO TX/LA DURING THE
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER
THE NWRN GULF COAST REGION AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER
NWRN TX TO START THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR
MONDAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER/COMPLEX THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL
TX PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
MEANDERS EWD ACROSS NWRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY...THIS FEATURE AND
A POWERFUL UPPER JET LOCATED OVER SRN/SERN TX WILL PROVIDE STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT AND IN TURN AID IN MAINTAINING
WHATEVER MANAGES TO EVOLVE BY MONDAY MORNING.  BASED ON STRONG MODEL
CONSENSUS TO THIS POINT...THE WRN AND NWRN BOUNDS OF THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY BE DEMARCATED DUE TO EARLY DAY STORMS.  

WITH THE ABOVE CONVECTIVE-SCALE INFLUENCING FACTORS AND ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTY IN MIND...A MOISTURE RICH BOUNDARY LAYER /CHARACTERIZED
BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS 14-16 G PER KG/ BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES --TO THE S OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE-- WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  A VEERING
AND INCREASING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM RISK.  THE WIND
DAMAGE RISK MAY EVOLVE TO BE PERHAPS THE GREATEST RISK AS STORMS
MOVE EWD ALONG THE CNTRL GULF COAST DURING THE DAY.  IN WAKE OF
EARLY-DAY CONVECTION FARTHER W OVER TX...IF SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIOR TO
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY WEAKENS TOWARDS DARK.

..SMITH.. 04/26/2015

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 261700Z - 271200Z

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 04/26/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0355 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...WITH A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EXPECTED TO
CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN...RESULTING IN A
PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS SRN CA BEGINNING TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SERN NM/W
TX AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.

...PORTIONS OF WRN TX AND ERN NM...
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM/W TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUSTAINED WLY
WINDS OF 15-30 MPH EXPECTED WHILE RH DROPS INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE. THERE IS LIKELY TO BE SOME DISPLACEMENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF
STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION...AND
THE AREA OF WARMEST TEMPS/LOWEST RH IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE DRYLINE
ACROSS W TX. GIVEN THIS DISPLACEMENT AND SOME ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL/GREENUP ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...NO CRITICAL DELINEATION
WILL BE MADE AT THIS TIME.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY...
LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
VALLEY...AS NWLY SFC WINDS OF 15-20 WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
CONJUNCTION WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 10-20 PERCENT. CRITICAL
WIND/RH MAY BE REALIZED IN LOCALIZED AREAS...BUT MARGINAL WIND
SPEEDS AND SOME RECENT RAINFALL/FUEL MOISTENING SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL THREAT.

...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS
SRN CA...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. COASTAL
RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST
WINDS...BUT MARGINAL RH AND FUEL CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
THREAT THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY1 PERIOD.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1026 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.  NO CHANGES NEEDED.

..LEITMAN.. 04/26/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0356 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH MULTIPLE
UPPER TROUGHS DOMINATING THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS
SLOWLY EWD FROM CA INTO THE NRN GREAT BASIN AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NW COAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF SRN CA
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.

...SRN CA COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...
OFFSHORE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE COASTAL RANGES AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY MORNING. RH
VALUES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO 10-20 PERCENT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
WEAKENING ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH MARGINAL FUEL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY AN ELEVATED AREA ACROSS THE
REGION.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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