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  Wednesday August 20, 2014

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 20 08:39:01 UTC 2014

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 20 08:39:01 UTC 2014.


SPC MD 1585

MD 1585 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA
MD 1585 Thumbnail Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 200740Z - 200945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS...PRIMARILY WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN/SOUTHERN IA.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK MCV APPEARS TO BE SPREADING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEB...AHEAD OF A BROADER ZONE OF WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST STATES UPPER TROUGH.
WITH REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA INDICATIVE OF A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL
JET...WARM ADVECTION-AIDED ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF
REGIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FURTHER AID SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WESTERN IA. WITHIN THE SOURCE REGION...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE ELEVATED BUOYANCY EXISTS ATOP A
COOL/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 2000-3000+ J/KG MUCAPE LIKELY AS
PER EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM NORTH PLATTE AND OMAHA. WHEN
CONSIDERING THIS ELEVATED INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR THROUGH THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS FOR SOME UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS
SUCH...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALTHOUGH AN EVENTUAL TREND FOR UPDRAFT
MERGERS/CLUSTERING WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER
HAIL STONES OVER TIME.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   43769874 43079646 42149439 40579353 41089601 41449815
            42519844 43769874 

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SPC MD 1584

MD 1584 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH TO WESTERN WV
MD 1584 Thumbnail Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KY AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN OH TO WESTERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 200715Z - 200845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUST RISK MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR TWO OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN OH/FAR NORTHEAST
KY/WESTERN WV. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL.

DISCUSSION...FOCUSED ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW...A WELL-ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL OH/NORTHEAST KY TO WESTERN WV OVERNIGHT...WITH OTHER
SCATTERED/LESS-ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/EASTERN OH.
EARLIER...MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 36 KT/39 KT WERE NOTED AT HAMILTON
AIRPORT /KHAO/ AND CINCINNATI-COVINGTON /KCVG/ RESPECTIVELY.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND UPSTREAM WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
INDIANAPOLIS SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A WEAK MCV MAY BE INFLUENCING THE
QUASI-LINEAR ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN OH. EVEN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLE...A RELATIVELY COOL/INCREASINGLY
STABLE BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO PRECLUDE SEVERE-CALIBER WIND SPEEDS
FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.

..GUYER/CARBIN.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38348395 39478374 39738243 39748142 39348115 38398190
            38268283 38348395 

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SPC Aug 20, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0224 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN/CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND
SHIFT EWD ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRACK
NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE OVER KS/NEB WILL TRACK NE TOWARD WRN IA. A
WEST TO EAST ORIENTED WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW ACROSS IA
INTO THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR
SEVERE.

...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY...

QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL ON
FRIDAY. FIRST...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN
THE DAY 1/WED AND DAY 3/FRI PERIOD...AND CLOUD COVER FROM THE
CONVECTION COULD LIMIT HEATING AND LAPSE RATES. SECOND...MODEL
GUIDANCE VARIES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND ITS EXACT TRACK...WHICH IN TURN HAS RESULTED IN
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT. FINALLY...WARMING
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER RIDGE INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE COULD LEAD TO SOME CAPPING CONCERNS. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. AS THE SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES...0-6 KM SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 30-40 KT...WHICH
WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STRUCTURES SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP. THE THREAT
DURING THE AFTERNOON APPEARS LARGELY CONDITIONAL AND LIMITED.
HOWEVER...AFTER 00Z CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS LLJ
STRENGTHENS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREAD THE WARM FRONT.
GIVEN A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN HOW SEVERE THREAT WILL
EVOLVE...ONLY LOW-END PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 08/20/2014

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SPC Aug 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND/ERN SD
AND INTO ADJACENT SWRN MN/NERN NEB/NWRN IA...

AMENDED TO CHANGE MENTION OF NERN KS TO NERN NEB IN HEADLINE...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR AS
WELL. OTHER ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

...SYNOPSIS...
AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS...THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE NRN HIGH PLAINS ON THE WRN FRINGE OF A S
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE.  WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE EVENT ACROSS THE ERN SD VICINITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

...NRN PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY REGION...
AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS
FORECAST...CONTRIBUTING TO AN EWD-SHIFTING DRYLINE ACROSS WRN
NEB/WRN KS AND A NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY
AREA.  AS THE WARM SECTOR HEATS/DESTABILIZES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...EXPECT EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS
THE CENTRAL SD VICINITY -- AIDED BY A FAVORABLE INCREASE/VEERING OF
FLOW WITH HEIGHT.  ROTATING STORMS -- CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL -- SHOULD EVOLVE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EWD ACROSS SD AND ADJACENT N CENTRAL/NERN NEB.
 ALONG WITH THE HAIL/WIND RISK...A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT -- PARTICULARLY INVOF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE EWD/SEWD ACROSS WRN MN AND WRN
IA...AS A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS/VEERS.  THOUGH OVERALL RISK SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER DARK...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/WIND MAY LINGER
WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...MID AND UPPER MS/OH/TN VALLEYS...
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ATTM
E/SE OF THE NRN PLAINS SLIGHT RISK AREA.  DESPITE PRESENCE OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING/HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
AREA AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEAKENS THROUGH
THE DAY.  RESULTING WEAK/BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE IS LIKELY TO SUPPRESS
ROBUST CONVECTION TO SOME DEGREE.  INDEED...MOST HIGH-RES
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZED DIURNAL
CONVECTION ACROSS THIS ZONE.  STILL -- FUELED BY MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION -- A FEW STRONGER AFTERNOON STORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION FROM THE W/SW IS EXPECTED AS A LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS/VEERS...WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION...AS WELL AS A POSSIBILITY THAT ONGOING
STORMS SPREAD SEWD FROM THE MAIN SEVERE RISK AREA FARTHER NW.  

GIVEN THE AMPLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...MODERATE NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SUPPORT SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A STORM
ORGANIZATION.  THUS...ANY STRONGER CELLS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA
FROM AFTERNOON ONWARD MAY POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.  THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE RISK ACROSS
A BROAD AREA...WITH ANY POSSIBLE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL DIFFICULT TO NARROW DOWN ATTM.

..GOSS/MOSIER.. 08/20/2014

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SPC Aug 20, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

...SYNOPSIS...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD NORTHWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE GULF
COAST REGION. ACROSS THE WEST...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION WILL STRENGTHEN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS FROM SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  

AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BORDER WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS E/NE. AN ATTENDANT SWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE E/SE ACROSS MN AND INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY/CNTRL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...A DRYLINE WILL INTERSECT THE COLD
FRONT NEAR THE WRN NEB/KS BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND EXTEND
S/SWWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AND FAR ERN NM.
FINALLY...A WARM FRONT OVER THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. 

...CNTRL PLAINS INTO IA/FAR NW MO...

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY
MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING MCS. ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER
FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
NEB...OR ALONG THE SFC DRYLINE ACROSS WRN KS. IF STORM DO DEVELOP IN
THESE AREAS...SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE
VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG. CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED
GIVEN A LACK OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER...SOME MAINTENANCE AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH COULD OCCUR AS
STORMS PROPAGATE EWD TOWARD THE MID-MO VALLEY AS A SWLY LLJ AROUND
30-40 KT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. THIS REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN THOUGH.

...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION...

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY IN WARM
ADVECTION REGIME AS THE SFC WARM FRONT RETREATS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE /25-35 KT/ FOR SOME
SEMI-ORGANIZED STRUCTURES AND ANY BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD
COVER COULD RESULT IN STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...PW VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO 2 INCHES...COULD
ALLOW FOR FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS/WET DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS TIME.

..LEITMAN.. 08/20/2014

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SPC Aug 20, 2014 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE BUT MESSY PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON DAY 4-5/SAT-SUN...THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS A IT
PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL LEAD SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AIDING IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER KS/NEB. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
BE ONGOING IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...AN MCS MAY EVOLVE OVER THE DAKOTAS INTO NEB...AND WHILE
AT LEAST LOW-END SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE...CONFIDENCE IN A
HIGHER-END THREAT IS LOW DUE TO SEVERAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA EACH DAY BETWEEN DAY 1/WED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED /OVER THE LAST
DAY/ TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST
TRACKING EWD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
EAST COAST. THIS IS A BIT OF CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE A
FLATTER RIDGE AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS MAINTAINED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SO...WHILE A SEVERE
THREAT MAY SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AROUND DAY 7/8-TUE/WED...TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR DAY TO DAY CONSISTENCY.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
EARLY-MORNING MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SRN CA. THIS FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A TROUGH TO ITS N
EXTENDS INTO THE NWRN CONUS. DOWNSTREAM...A RIDGE WILL BRANCH
NWWD/NWD FROM AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO AND SERN
STATES. ELSEWHERE...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL ORE...EXTREME S-CNTRL WA -- STRONG WIND/LOW
RH POTENTIAL...
A MODEST SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15-20
MPH IN A LOCALIZED AREA FROM THE LEE OF THE CASCADES AND THE
COLUMBIA GORGE TO PORTIONS OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO 15-25 PERCENT IN COMBINATION WITH THESE WINDS
AMIDST DRY FUELS...SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE
LACK OF AN EVEN TIGHTER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
CRITICALLY STRONG WINDS FROM OCCURRING ON ANY MORE THAN A
BRIEF/SPOTTY BASIS.

...PORTIONS OF SRN WY -- STRONG WIND/LOW RH POTENTIAL...
WLY SFC WINDS AROUND 15 TO LOCALLY/OCCASIONALLY 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR TODAY. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS
THAT RH VALUES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO THE MIDDLE 30S
WITHOUT A WARMER/DRIER AIR MASS. WITHOUT LOWER RH...THE RISK FOR
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TOO LOW FOR FIRE-WEATHER
DELINEATIONS.

...COASTAL RANGES OF SRN CA -- DRY-THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS ARE DIURNALLY ENHANCED AMIDST
MARGINAL BUOYANCY. MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE STORM
MOTIONS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...AND SOME RISK FOR
LIGHTNING-INDUCED IGNITIONS WILL EXIST PROVIDED THE PRESENCE OF DRY
FUELS. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON THE EDGES OF RAIN CORES.
HOWEVER...GPS DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALL SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL EXIST TO
SUPPORT WETTING RAINS WITH MANY STORMS -- E.G. THE PRESENCE OF
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND PW VALUES OF 0.7 INCH TO LOCALLY OVER
1.0 INCH. THIS WILL IMPEDE THE OVERALL RISK FOR STRICTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS SUCH THAT FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

..COHEN.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Thumbnail Image
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID LEVELS...MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER THE WRN CONUS
AMIDST AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST AND A CYCLONE SLOWLY
PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. RIDGING WILL EXTEND NWD FROM
AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE SERN CONUS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...WHILE A TROUGH ADVANCES EWD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE WRN CONUS...THOUGH PW VALUES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST TO LIMIT THE RISK FOR PURELY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHERMORE...STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
OVERLAP WITH LOW SFC RH ACROSS THE CONUS. FOR THESE
REASONS...FIRE-WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED.

..COHEN.. 08/20/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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