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  Tuesday March 19, 2024

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 05:22:01 UTC 2024

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 19 05:22:01 UTC 2024.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 19 05:22:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Mar 19, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early evening water-vapor imagery shows a potent large-scale trough
over the East.  A strong belt of subtropical upper-level flow
extends from Mexico across the Gulf of Mexico and the FL Peninsula. 
A cold front over the FL Peninsula will continue to move south this
evening into the overnight hours and reach the FL Straits late.  A
couple of lingering thunderstorms this evening over the central and
southern portion of the FL Peninsula will continue to wane in
coverage and intensity.  Farther west, a stationary mid to
upper-level low and steep lapse rates will promote isolated to
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, before
diminishing late tonight.  Elsewhere, surface high pressure centered
over the south-central U.S. will lead to tranquil conditions.

..Smith.. 03/19/2024

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SPC Mar 19, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low over AZ will slowly weaken and migrate eastward to 
NM during the period.  A mid-level ridge will extend northward from
northern CA into the Pacific Northwest.  Farther east, broad
cyclonic mid-level flow will encompass the Upper Midwest
southeastward through the East Coast.  Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible mainly during the afternoon and evening
across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners.  Surface high pressure
centered over the southern Great Plains into the Southeast will lead
to offshore flow and tranquil conditions in those areas.

..Smith/Flournoy.. 03/19/2024

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SPC Mar 19, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
      
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of
the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night.  Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe
hail and wind.

...Synopsis...
Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly
confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the
western Atlantic through this period.  Within one branch,
consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher
latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower
Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of
the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night.  This may be
accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of
northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a
reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the
northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward
across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and
central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday.

Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation
emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern
Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing,
but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale
impulses.  One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined
mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward
across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday
through Wednesday night.  A trailing perturbation may accelerate
through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border
area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse
emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach
Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday.  

There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning
these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the
way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface
troughing across the southern Great Plains.  And low-level moisture
return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in
the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the
northern Gulf Basin.  Better low-level moistening may remain
confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas
coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air.

...Texas Panhandle Vicinity...
To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach
the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon.  But it still
appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep,
well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500
J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) 
overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity
center.  Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may
only become modest, at best, this environment could still support
strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail
and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread
while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening.

...Southern Texas...
A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong
inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a
return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may
contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg.  Considerable
uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome
the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a
subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by
late Wednesday night, if not earlier.  If this occurs, strong
deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of
supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind
gusts.

..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

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