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  Monday May 22, 2017

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256

WW 256 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 230030Z - 230600Z
      
WW 0256 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast New Mexico
  West Texas

* Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 730 PM
  until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of hail and damaging winds will affect the watch area this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles north of
Guadalupe Pass TX to 15 miles east of Abilene TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 255...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Hart

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255

WW 255 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 221900Z - 230200Z
      
WW 0255 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 255
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
100 PM MDT Mon May 22 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  East Central and Southeast New Mexico
  West Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until
  800 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
    inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain of
eastern new Mexico within the low-level moisture axis.  The storms
are likely to intensify as they move east-southeastward this
afternoon with stronger storms capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north of Cannon
Afb NM to 40 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
28030.

...Weiss

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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256 Status Reports

WW 0256 Status Updates
      
WW 0256 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0256 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255 Status Reports

WW 0255 Status Updates
      
WW 0255 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 255

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..BROYLES..05/22/17

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...LUB...AMA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 255 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

NMC005-009-011-015-019-025-037-041-222340-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHAVES               CURRY               DE BACA             
EDDY                 GUADALUPE           LEA                 
QUAY                 ROOSEVELT           


TXC003-017-069-079-117-165-219-279-369-445-501-222340-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDREWS              BAILEY              CASTRO              
COCHRAN              DEAF SMITH          GAINES              
HOCKLEY              LAMB                PARMER              
TERRY                YOAKUM              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

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SPC MD 812

MD 0812 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 255... FOR FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS
MD 0812 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0812
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Areas affected...Far Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

Valid 222356Z - 230200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue with large hail
and damaging wind gusts possible across parts of eastern New Mexico
and in west Texas this evening. The wind damage threat may increase
across the Low Rolling Plains where a Weather Watch may be needed
depending upon how the scenario unfolds.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary
over the southern high Plains extending from near Roswell, New
Mexico east-southeastward to near Big Spring, Texas and Abilene,
Texas. Surface dewpoints to the south of the boundary range from the
mid 50s F in southeast New Mexico to the lower 60s in the Low
Rolling Plains. This airmass is moderately unstable with the RAP
estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
combined with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough
moving through the southern Plains, will help maintain scattered
thunderstorm development this evening. Concerning the shear
environment, the WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo and Lubbock have strong
deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear estimated in the 50 to 55 kt
range. This will support isolated supercell development with a
potential for large hail. Some short-term model solutions also
suggest that storms will congeal over west Texas and move
east-southeastward across the Low Rolling Plains. If this occurs,
then the formation of a bowing line segment capable of producing
damaging wind gusts will be possible.

..Broyles.. 05/22/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   32030412 33190517 35390522 35230405 32750269 32030412 

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SPC May 23, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0801 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EAST INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA/WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening -- and possibly into
the overnight hours -- from parts of eastern New Mexico into west
Texas.

...Southern Plains...
Strong/isolated severe storms continue across portions of eastern NM
into the western half of TX and adjacent southwest OK.  The storms
are ongoing within a marginally to moderately unstable environment
(1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), with severe risk being aided
by ample (around 40 kt) 0-6 km shear.  With flow aloft slightly
north of west atop low-level southeasterlies, a continued southeast
spread of storms off the high Plains into lower-terrain areas is
expected.  While overall risk should wane late this evening, local
risk may persist into the overnight hours.

..Goss.. 05/23/2017

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