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  Friday August 26, 2016

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260549
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gaston, located about 1100 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands.

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located between the southeastern Bahamas and the northeastern coast
of Cuba. The low is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms mainly to its south and east, and upper-level winds
are not expected to be particularly conducive for development during
the next day or so while this system moves more slowly toward the
west-northwest at about 10 mph. However, environmental conditions
could become a little more conducive for development over the
weekend or early next week while the system moves through the
Straits of Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Regardless of development, heavy rains, with the potential to cause
flash floods and mud slides, are likely over Hispaniola and eastern
and central Cuba during the next couple of days. Gusty winds and
locally heavy rainfall are also possible over portions of the
Bahamas during the next few days. Interests in South Florida and
the Florida Keys should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance since some impacts, such as heavy rains and gusty winds,
could begin over weekend and continue through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

An area of disturbed weather is located over the northern portion
of the Gulf of Mexico. Surface pressures in this area are high at
the moment, and little to no development of this system is expected
before it reaches the coast of Texas over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm GASTON (AT2/AL072016)
    ...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Aug 25 the center of GASTON was located near 22.8, -46.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

 

Tropical Storm GASTON

  • Tropical Storm GASTON Public Advisory Number 14
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 260244 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GASTON ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 ...GASTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 46.4W ABOUT 1075 MI...1725 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gaston was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 46.4 West. Gaston is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight or Friday but re-strengthening is anticipated to begin Friday night, and Gaston is forecast to become a hurricane again on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Advisory Number 14
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 260244 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 46.4W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 46.4W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 24.5N 48.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 26.2N 50.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 27.5N 53.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 28.6N 54.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 30.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 32.5N 57.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 34.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Forecast Discussion Number 14
    Issued at 1100 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 260245 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016 Gaston continues to have an asymmetric satellite appearance due to strong southwesterly shear. Still, the cyclone is producing persistent deep convection near the center, and Dvorak estimates suggest the initial wind speed remains near 55 kt. The shear should decrease tomorrow due to Gaston moving into a favorable position to the north of an upper-level low. In addition, the water temperatures are forecast to be warming up during the next few days, which should also promote strengthening. Due to recent microwave data showing that the inner core has been disrupted, only a slow intensification is shown in this forecast. In the longer term, models are not in great agreement on the upper-level wind pattern, and I have elected to level off the intensification. The new NHC prediction is a blend of the previous one and the model consensus. It should be noted that, while not explicitly shown below, a majority of the guidance show Gaston becoming a major hurricane at some time in the day 3 to 5 period. The initial motion remains northwestward at 15 kt. Gaston should move northwestward during the next day or so around a mid-level ridge over the east-central Atlantic. In about 36 hours, the ridge is forecast to build to the north of Gaston, which will likely cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward. Early next week, Gaston should turn northward as the ridge weakens, then recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies in 4 days or so. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the exact details, with timing and speed differences in both the tropical cyclone's position and the potential mid-latitude shortwave that causes recurvature. Since there have been no substantive changes to the model guidance in this cycle, the new NHC prediction is basically just an update of the previous one. It is fair to say that the end of this forecast is of pretty low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 22.8N 46.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 24.5N 48.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 26.2N 50.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 27.5N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 28.6N 54.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 30.5N 57.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 32.5N 57.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 34.5N 53.0W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 260244 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Tropical Storm GASTON Graphics
    Tropical Storm GASTON 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 02:45:22 GMT

    Tropical Storm GASTON 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Aug 2016 03:06:39 GMT ]]>
 
 
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