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  Friday August 29, 2014

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 291138
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
exepected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane CRISTOBAL (AT4/AL042014)
    ...CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 29 the center of CRISTOBAL was located near 42.1, -51.7 with movement NE at 49 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

 

Hurricane CRISTOBAL

  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 23
    Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 290836 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 ...CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.1N 51.7W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 49 MPH...80 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 49 MPH...80 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB...28.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY CRISTOBAL ARE AFFECTING BERMUDA AND THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. LARGE SWELLS WILL ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 23
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 290835 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 51.7W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 120SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT.......190NE 230SE 220SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 260SE 660SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 51.7W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.0N 53.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 45.4N 45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 240SE 240SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 49.3N 39.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 140SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 250SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 52.9N 32.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 160SW 60NW. 34 KT...210NE 250SE 240SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 59.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 140SE 200SW 160NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 51.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 23
    Issued at 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 290839 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014 Cristobal has begun extratropical transition. The cloud pattern has become much less symmetric and central convection has decreased, along with dry air eroding the southern flank of the cyclone. Dvorak classifications are a little lower and support an intensity of about 70 kt for this advisory. The hurricane has now moved across the north wall of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters. This change in environment usually causes a significant weakening of a tropical cyclone, but in this case strong baroclinic forcing should delay the cyclone's demise. Post-tropical Cristobal will likely remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through early Sunday. Beyond that time, the system is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and lose its identity. The hurricane continues to accelerate, and the motion is now 055/43 kt with Cristobal moving rapidly within the mid-latitude flow. Dynamical track guidance indicates that this general motion will continue during the next couple of days with a decrease in forward speed and a small leftward turn due to Cristobal interacting with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two. The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 42.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 45.4N 45.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 30/0600Z 49.3N 39.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 30/1800Z 52.9N 32.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/0600Z 59.0N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/0600Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Blake ]]>
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
    Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 290836 PWSAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC FRI AUG 29 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 5 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE ]]>
  • Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
    Hurricane CRISTOBAL 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 08:37:24 GMT

    Hurricane CRISTOBAL 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 29 Aug 2014 13:24:46 GMT ]]>
 
 
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