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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

ABNT20 KNHC 052313
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Chantal, located off the coast of the southeastern United 
States.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen]]>

 

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Chantal (AT3/AL032025)
  ...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 the center of Chantal was located near 32.3, -78.7 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

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Tropical Storm Chantal

• Tropical Storm Chantal Public Advisory Number 5a
  Issued at 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 000 WTNT33 KNHC 052342 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 800 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...RAINBANDS FROM CHANTAL MOVING OVER THE CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 78.7W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Edisto Beach to South Santee River, SC A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the southeast coast of the United States should monitor the progress of Chantal. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 78.7 West. Chantal is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A motion toward the north-northwest is expected to begin this evening, followed by a turn to the northeast by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Chantal is expected to move across the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast before Chantal reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Chantal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area this evening and overnight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas through Monday. Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts up to 6 inches, is expected. This rainfall will result in an elevated risk for flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Chantal, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Edisto Beach, SC to Surf City, NC...1-2 ft For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight and Sunday across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. SURF: Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents to portions of the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 5
  Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 685 WTNT23 KNHC 052032 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS....120NE 75SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 78.7W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 110SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 06/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 5
  Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 398 WTNT43 KNHC 052033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 The satellite presentation of Chantal has not changed much throughout the day with convective banding and a concentrated area of deep convection located over the eastern semicircle of the storm. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated Chantal through midday found a peak 850-mb flight-level wind of 51 kt which supported the increase in winds to 40 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. With no significant change in structure since that time, the intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this evening. The moderate shear that has been affecting Chantal is forecast to decrease some this evening, however drier mid-level air appears to be being entrained into the western part of the circulation. Therefore only slight strengthening is predicted before Chantal reaches the coast of South Carolina overnight or early Sunday. After landfall, steady weakening should occur and the system is expected to open up into a trough by Monday. Recent fixes show that Chantal has begun moving a little faster toward the north with an initial motion estimate of 360/6. The track guidance suggests that the storm will turn north- northwestward between a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. A turn to the northeast is expected after landfall as Chantal becomes more embedded within the low- to mid-level flow around the west side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the TVCA multi-model consensus, which is close to the previous NHC forecast. Chantal is expected to remain asymmetric with its strongest winds and rainfall to the right of the landfall location. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area beginning this evening and continuing through Sunday morning. 2. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas will cause flash flooding concerns through Monday, especially in urban areas. 3. Chantal is expected to bring life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coast from northeastern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states during the next day or so. Beach goers should heed the advice of lifeguards and local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 31.9N 78.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 33.0N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 34.1N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0600Z 35.3N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
  Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 111 FONT13 KNHC 052033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032025 2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 6 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 34 7 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SURF CITY NC 34 16 4(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 14 4(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BALD HEAD ISL 34 35 4(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) FLORENCE SC 34 7 10(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LITTLE RIVER 34 44 10(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) LITTLE RIVER 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 52 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) MYRTLE BEACH 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GEORGETOWN SC 34 46 12(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CHARLESTON SC 34 24 6(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BROWN]]>
• Tropical Storm Chantal Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 23:42:25 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2025 21:21:58 GMT ]]>

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Local Statement for Charleston, SC

Issued at 508 PM EDT

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Local Statement for Wilmington, NC

Issued at 449 PM EDT