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  Tuesday September 2, 2014

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020550
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly, located over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico.

An area of low pressure could form between the west coast of Africa
and the Cape Verde Islands by Friday. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for additional development through the
weekend while the system moves westward at about 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Dolly are issued under WMO
header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm DOLLY (AT5/AL052014)
    ...DOLLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HEADING TOWARD MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 the center of DOLLY was located near 22.6, -94.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

 

Tropical Storm DOLLY

  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Public Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020845 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 ...DOLLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND HEADING TOWARD MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 94.8W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST. DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MORNING. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT...AND MOVE INLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL DOLLY MAKES LANDFALL. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES... 185 KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...NORTHERN VERACRUZ...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Advisory Number 3
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020844 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TUXPAN TO BARRA EL MEZQUITAL MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 94.8W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 94.8W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 94.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 23.1N 95.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 23.7N 97.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 24.1N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 94.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 3
    Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020845 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the cyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53 kt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40 kt. In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC indicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based on these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt, making the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. These wind data also required the initial position to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is based on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and conventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation of the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is expected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly skirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that is located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is expected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The NHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope. About 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting Dolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced well to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation. However, new convection has recently developed near and just to the southeast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to about 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight strengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall. The surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the two scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind field has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since the pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36 hours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical storm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no additional northward extension of the warning area appears likely at this time. The primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 22.6N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 23.1N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 23.7N 97.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 24.1N 98.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
    Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 000 FONT15 KNHC 020845 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 250N 960W 34 14 13(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) LA PESCO MX 34 4 26(30) 13(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LA PESCO MX 50 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TAMPICO MX 34 4 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) TUXPAN MX 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART ]]>
  • Tropical Storm DOLLY Graphics
    Tropical Storm DOLLY 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 08:45:32 GMT

    Tropical Storm DOLLY 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Sep 2014 09:03:46 GMT ]]>
 
 
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