000

ABNT20 KNHC 270533

TWOAT 



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low

pressure located about 600 miles east-southeast of the Windward

Islands continue to show signs of organization, and a tropical

cyclone could be forming. If this trend continues, then a tropical

depression or a tropical storm would likely form later today while

the system moves west-northwestward to westward at about 20 mph.

Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, including the

northern coast of South America, should monitor the progress of this

system, and watches or warnings could be required at any time.

Regardless of development, heavy rains and strong gusty winds,

possibly to tropical storm force, are expected to spread over the

Windward Islands and portions of the southern Lesser Antilles

beginning tonight and continuing into Wednesday.  An Air Force

Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the

disturbance this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent



Some shower activity continues in association with the remnants of

Lisa, located about 600 miles southwest of the Azores.  This system

is expected to merge with a cold front later today before

regeneration into a tropical cyclone can occur.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent



Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf

of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure that is

drifting westward.  Upper-level winds are not expected to be

conducive for significant development before this system moves

inland over northeastern Mexico during the next day or so.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent



$$

Forecaster Stewart

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No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 27 Sep 2016 08:34:40 GMT