000

ABNT20 KNHC 221711

TWOAT 



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Depression Two, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser

Antilles.



Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.



&&



Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO

header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.

Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Two are issued under WMO

header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.



$$

Forecaster Brennan



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Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022014)
  ...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Jul 22 the center of TWO was located near 12.6, -48.0 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression TWO

• Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221433 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 48.0W ABOUT 910 MI...1465 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ON THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.89 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT22 KNHC 221431 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 48.0W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 4
  Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221436 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014 The depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the west and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will be moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear that will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF show the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the Lesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast includes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be surprising if the system had already dissipated by that time. The initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues to be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 12.6N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 12.9N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 13.3N 53.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 13.9N 56.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 14.8N 60.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
  Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 000 FONT12 KNHC 221433 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN ]]>
• Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 15:03:05 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Jul 2014 19:02:44 GMT ]]>