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  Friday August 17, 2018

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

502 
ABNT20 KNHC 172311
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 17 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located several hundred miles north of the Azores.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)
    ...ERNESTO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 17 the center of Ernesto was located near 49.1, -29.8 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

 

Tropical Storm Ernesto

  • Tropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 298 WTNT35 KNHC 172032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 ...ERNESTO HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL STORM... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...49.1N 29.8W ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM N OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 49.1 North, longitude 29.8 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and a rapid northeast or east-northeast motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone and its remnants will move across Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ernesto is expected to become post-tropical this evening, and some gradual weakening is forecast to occur Saturday and Saturday night. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal zone by early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 11
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 177 WTNT25 KNHC 172032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.1N 29.8W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 160SE 100SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 270SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 49.1N 29.8W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 48.3N 31.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 160SE 140SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 160SE 140SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 49.1N 29.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 11
    Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 478 WTNT45 KNHC 172032 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018 Ernesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with deep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more separated from the low-level center. However, there is still enough organized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a little longer. The most recent satellite estimates and earlier ASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt. Ernesto will continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become post-tropical this evening. Little change in strength is predicted during the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly across the northern Atlantic. Global models indicate that the cyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the system should merge with a frontal zone located across the central portions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning. The cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt. Now that the system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid northeastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until dissipation occurs. There has been little change to the track guidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 49.1N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 51.1N 23.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 18/1800Z 53.2N 14.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/0600Z 54.8N 5.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
    Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 552 FONT15 KNHC 172032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 17 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 49.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ernesto Graphics
    Tropical Storm Ernesto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 20:34:18 GMT

    Tropical Storm Ernesto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 17 Aug 2018 21:22:08 GMT ]]>
 
 
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