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  Sunday August 30, 2015

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 302340
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located which is nearing the Cape Verde Islands.

The remnants of Erika, a trough of low pressure over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, continue to produce areas of heavy rains over
portions of the Florida peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the
western half of Cuba. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for development, and tropical cyclone formation is not
expected. Additional information on this system can be found in
local forecast products issued by the National Weather Service and
the meteorological service of Cuba.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Fred are issued under WMO
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
]]>
 

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm FRED (AT1/AL062015)
    ...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... As of 8:00 PM AST Sun Aug 30 the center of FRED was located near 14.9, -21.8 with movement NW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

 

Tropical Storm FRED

  • Tropical Storm FRED Public Advisory Number 4A
    Issued at 800 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 302336 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FRED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 800 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 ...FRED CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 21.8W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cape Verde Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 21.8 West. Fred is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center will move near or over some of the Cape Verde Islands early Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Fred is forecast to become a hurricane overnight. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach portions of the Cape Verde Islands in a few hours, with hurricane conditions by early Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Cape Verde Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches over the Cape Verde Islands, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. These rains could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Advisory Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 302034 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE VERDE ISLANDS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 21.3W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 21.3W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 20.8W FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.6N 22.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.2N 26.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N 28.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 20.6N 31.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 21.8N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.8N 39.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 21.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Forecast Discussion Number 4
    Issued at 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 302035 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015 Fred has continued to strengthen this afternoon. A new burst of deep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming more symmetric. Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also reveal increased banding in all quadrants. AMSR-2 and GCOM microwave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues to exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in the 37 GHz imagery. The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt, which is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from TAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT. Fred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized by very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient mid-level moisture during the next day or so. Therefore, additional strengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday. This is supported by the statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to hurricane status. In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone will be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more stable air mass. This should result in weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens Fred to a tropical depression by 120 h. Fred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial motion estimate is 310/14 kt. The forecast track philosophy remains unchanged from before. The cyclone should move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so. In a couple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge rebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and central Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast is a little north of the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement with the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model. Please note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated product, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the Cape Verde Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 14.4N 21.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 15.6N 22.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 16.9N 24.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 18.2N 26.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 19.2N 28.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 20.6N 31.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 21.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 22.8N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
    Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 302034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015 2100 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 21.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN ]]>
  • Tropical Storm FRED Graphics
    Tropical Storm FRED 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 23:39:37 GMT

    Tropical Storm FRED 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 30 Aug 2015 21:06:46 GMT ]]>
 
 
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