000

ABNT20 KNHC 221113

TWOAT 



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

700 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Sebastien, located several hundred miles northeast of the

northern Leeward Islands.



Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky

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Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019)
  ...POORLY ORGANIZED SEBASTIEN HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Nov 22 the center of Sebastien was located near 25.2, -55.3 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Sebastien

• Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 13
  Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 221447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED SEBASTIEN HEADING EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 55.3W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 55.3 West. Sebastien is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). An east-northeastward or northeastward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is anticipated and Sebastien is forecast to dissipate by early next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
• Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 13
  Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 221456 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 CORRECTED WIND GUSTS AT INITIAL TIME THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 55.3W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 55.9W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 53.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 27.0N 51.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 28.2N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 29.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 55.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
• Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 13
  Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221449 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 1100 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 Sebastien is strongly sheared with deep convection limited to the northeast quadrant of the cyclone. The intensity has been set at 45 kt, based primarily on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification and recent ADT fixes. A partial ASCAT overpass at 1239 UTC may not have captured the strongest winds, but showed a peak value of only 40 kt. Recent visible imagery and the ASCAT data also indicate that Sebastien's circulation is not quite as well defined as it was yesterday, perhaps due to its close proximity to a nearby frontal boundary. A significant change was made to the intensity forecast earlier this morning, and the latest forecast is in line with that new thinking. Strong shear is expected to prevent Sebastien from getting better organized, so gradual weakening is anticipated. The HWRF is once again a notable outlier, as the 06Z run stubbornly forecasts Sebastien to become a hurricane. While not impossible, that scenario appears unlikely and has been discounted. Aside from the HWRF, the dynamical guidance otherwise dissipates Sebastien within about 3 days, and this is reflected in the official forecast. Given Sebastien's shallow and disorganized structure, it is certainly possible that its wind field may become poorly-defined and the system could dissipate sooner than currently forecast. The tropical storm continues to move at a slower pace and to the right of previous forecasts. The initial motion estimate is 075/13 kt. The latest NHC track forecast is slower and to the right of the previous advisory, closer to the global model consensus. The cyclone is expected to continue generally northeastward or east-northeastward near the southern end of an eastward-moving frontal boundary through the weekend or as long as it remains a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 25.2N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 25.8N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 27.0N 51.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 28.2N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 29.3N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
• Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
  Issued at 1500 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 221447 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 1500 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
• Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 14:50:52 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 14:50:52 GMT ]]>