698
FXUS61 KBTV 292358
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
758 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will increase tonight with rain developing over northern New
York by late Thursday morning and spreading into most of Vermont by
sunset. A widespread rainfall is expected across the entire area by
Friday night with amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range, except slightly
less over parts of the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Temperatures
with the clouds and precipitation will hold in the mid 40s to lower
50s on both Thursday and Friday, with some mountain snow showers
likely Friday night into Saturday. Drier and cooler weather returns
late Saturday into Sunday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...GOES-19 water vapor shows closed
mid/upper lvl cyclonic circulation over western TN, while deep dry
layer is acrs our cwa associated with ridge of high pres. Developing
low level east/southeast flow and strengthening southerly mid lvl
flow has helped to advect slight deeper moisture into eastern
NY/southern New England, which wl aid in spreading clouds from south
to north acrs our region overnight into Thurs morning. This moisture
advection and developing 975mb winds of 10 to 15 knots, should limit
the areal coverage of fog tonight. Maybe some very patchy fog in the
upper CT River Valley and near MVL. Temps wl be warmer than last
night with lows mid 20s to m/u 30s most locations, except lower 40s
near Lake Champlain.
Thursday-Thursday night...A closed 7h/5h circulation over western TN
wl track northward toward the Ohio Valley and become negatively
tilted by 12z Thurs. This combined with strengthening 925mb to 850mb
east/southeast jet of 45 to 60 knots wl help to advect deeper
moisture into our region, along with developing mid lvl southerly
flow. Pw values surge into the 1.20 to 1.40" by 18z Thurs as strong
moisture advection prevails acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. Rain
should develop acrs northern NY by late Thurs morning and spread
into VT on Thurs aftn and into the NEK by evening. The llvl wind
field orientation suggestions some downslope shadowing acrs the
western slopes and parts of the NEK thru Thurs evening.
Still some uncertainty on downslope wind potential with the
NAM3KM/ARW proggs the most aggressive with localized gusts in the 45
to 55 mph range, while HRRR and RAP are in the 35 to 45 mph range.
Soundings once again are sending some mixed signals in term of
mixing and momentum transfer toward the sfc and height of inversion
in relation to ridgeline. NAM3KM is indicating the best mixing
potential with dry adiabatic profiles associated with downslope
drying, while HRRR/RAP are very limited with top of the mix layer
winds of 35 to 42 knots, but 50 knot jet is progged below 1000 ft.
If trends continue a wind advisory maybe needed on Thurs aftn into
the evening hours along the western slopes of VT, for localized
gusts up to 50 mph. Did note the 00z HREF in DESI showed a small
ribbon of 50 to 70% prob of wind gusts >45 mph along the western
slopes thru 00z Friday.
Given direction and magnitude of 925mb to 850mb wind fields
anticipate trrn driven precip fields Thurs into Friday. Highest qpf
values wl be over northern NY/SLV and southeast upslope areas of the
Greens, with some shadowing likely acrs the NEK and western slopes.
QPF basically in the 0.25 to 0.75" thru Thursday night with some
localized amounts over 1.0 likely. A cool and raw day is expected on
Thurs with highs only in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Thurs night with
clouds and precip lows stay in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s most
areas with periods of rain continuing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM EDT Wednesday...As mid/upper lvl circulation and
associated elongated sfc low pres lifts directly overhead expect
additional showers to redevelop on Friday and become more trrn
focused by Friday night. Also, expect winds to shift from the
south/southeast to west/northwest direction by evening and become
gusty at times. Localized eastern sides of the Dacks and eastern
side of the Greens could see gusts in the 30 to 40 mph range, with
higher values near summits likely. Eventually enough cold air is
pulled into the backside of the system for lowering snow lvl on
Friday night. Progged 850mb temps btwn -2C and -4C with 925mb in
the -1C to -3C range support snow levels down to 1500 feet by
12z Sat. Did breakout the upslope snow procedure and produced my
first storm total snowfall grid of the winter season, which
shows an inch or two summits and a slushy dusting down to 1800
feet or so.
The new NWS experimental precip portal probs at BTV show low end
amount of storm total qpf of 0.75" or 90% of higher amounts, while
high end amount of 2.80" with 10% chance of higher amounts of total
event qpf. Amounts are higher over northern NY and slightly lower
over the NEK of VT for this event. Not anticipating any flood
related issues, but sharp rises in rivers and streams are likely to
occur with upcoming rainfall. Temp hold mostly in the 40s to lower
50s on Friday with blustery winds developing and fall back into the
mid 20s summits to lower 40s near Lake Champlain by 12z Sat.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM EDT Wednesday...Low pressure across the Gulf of St.
Lawrence will continue to pull away from the forecast area to
the northeast this weekend, drawing in cold air out of the
northwest and producing showers along the western slopes of the
northern Adirondacks and Green Mountains on Saturday. Most
likely precipitation (40-70%) will occur in the morning hours
with snow levels at 1700-2400 feet as highs reach only into the
upper 30s to lower 50s, which is about 5-10 degrees below
seasonal averages for early November. Continuing gusty westerly
winds will make it feel even colder with gusts up to 20-35 mph
possible in the morning, decreasing slightly in the afternoon
as the gradient loosens. and a low level jet pulls away. Any
additional rainfall amounts will be minimal, just a few
hundredths of an inch. Any snowfall accumulations will be
limited to highest elevations with just a couple of hundredths
of an inch anticipated.
Drier air flowing in and high pressure building across the mid
Atlantic are expected to lessen shower coverage in the evening
and overnight Saturday night. Saturday night is looking
roughly seasonable to colder than normal with lows falling into
the 20s to mid 30s, then Sunday looks dry and cold with highs in
the 40s and lower 50s under continued high pressure. Early next
week, global models are indicating a northern stream trough and
associated frontal boundary will dig into the region and bring
additional chances of precipitation. Most likely (40-70% chance)
time frame is Monday night into early Tuesday as snow levels
sit around 2000-2800 feet. Highs are likely to climb only into
the 40s and lower 50s during the first half of next week with
lows in the 20s and 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions largely will continue
through the overnight period; <10% chance of fog at any terminal
as increasing flow off the deck will counteract a period of
clear skies prior to arrival of thick overcast from the south.
One thing to watch will be stratus at MPV with about a 20%
chance of MVFR ceilings in the 08Z to 12Z period, as a distinct
marine layer in southern New England will tend to expand slowly
northward. This pattern will favor eastern portions of Vermont
with ceilings close to 3000 feet.
The aforementioned overcast and associated rain showers will
expand throughout the airspace after 10Z. Ceilings will tend to
be orographically influenced in easterly flow, favoring
continued MVFR ceilings at MPV and a greater likelihood at PBG
than at BTV. Conditions will generally deteriorate in the 15Z to
20Z period. After about 18Z, probable MVFR conditions, more
likely related to showers reducing visibility, at Vermont
terminals will generally expand eastward with time as coverage
of rain increases.
Low level east-southeasterly winds, light through 12Z, will
ramp up thereafter, with LLWS expected to expand northward with
time. It is introduced at RUT first at 16Z, with higher
elevation sites SLK, MPV, and EFK also indicated to see about 40
knots of LLWS. Additionally, gusts will become more common
after 18Z, including possibility of sustained 20 knot winds with
gusts over 30 knots at RUT.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Definite SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware
failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will
be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Taber
SHORT TERM...Taber
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kutikoff
EQUIPMENT...BTV
|
