394
FXUS61 KBTV 061130
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
630 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 223 AM EST Friday...

Chances for higher terrain light snow over the weekend has
increased slightly.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 223 AM EST Friday...

1. Periods of showers will continue through early next week,
becoming most widespread later Saturday through Sunday morning.
There is an increasing chance of light snow accumulations at higher
elevations early Sunday and again Monday as colder air moves into
the region.

2. Unsettled weather will persist through much of next week,
with a general trend toward cooler weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 223 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An active weather pattern will be present through the
next several days as shortwave troughs move through our region. The
first of these is a slow mover; an upper level low will
cross New York and Vermont from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning, when highest chances of rain generally are on
the table.

To start with for today, we are within a dry slot ahead of the first
upper level low and a plume of deeper moisture along a developing
coastal front. It appears on the northwestern fringe of this
plume showers tracking over southeastern New York will likely
slide through southern and eastern Vermont, with a batch of
showers arriving by noon and exiting soon after. As a wave of
low pressure develops over southern New England, somewhat
heavier showers will develop; there remains quite a bit of
spread with how far west the rain will get. As such, have
maintained roughly 40-60% PoPs over eastern Vermont with a more
uncertain 0.1 - 0.3" of rain than typical in this time range.

Meanwhile, shower chances will increase Friday afternoon over
western portions of northern New York as strong upper level
divergence and some near surface convergent flow develops ahead
of the aforementioned upper level low. Showers in this area
will be light but persistent for much of the weekend, especially
towards southern St. Lawrence, Franklin, and Essex counties,
and will gradually expand eastward into the south central
Vermont. As the upper level low crosses to our south Saturday
night, sufficient cooling for a changeover to snow in higher
elevations is becoming a bit more likely. Probabilities of at
least some snow mixing in with rain, even down to elevations as
low as 1000 to 1500 feet if precipitation is heavy enough, are
above 20%, especially over northeastern portions of Vermont and
the northwestern Adirondacks. In a reasonable high end scenario
given a timeframe falling during the nighttime hours, up to a
couple inches of wet snow could accumulate in some towns above
1500 feet.

The northward extent of rain showers, and potential for
steadier rain particularly in the Saturday afternoon through
Sunday morning timeframe, remains uncertain. The latest guidance
has trended wetter in northern areas including north central
and northwestern Vermont. The potential for a good soaking rain,
with rainfall amounts in the range of 0.5"-1", would be tied to
a more rapidly deepening surface low pressure area in the Gulf
of Maine and an associated deformation zone across western
Vermont/northeastern New York that is favored due to terrain
enhanced convergence. Precipitation chances generally look at
their minimum for the weekend later Sunday as brief ridging
builds in before another shortwave trough quickly approaches for
Sunday night.

On Monday, the most noteworthy part of the forecast may be
related to seasonably gusty northwest winds as another trough
swings through with typical cold season advection. Given the
recent warm weather, this air mass will be notably chilly with
apparent temperatures most likely in the 30s for most of the day
in many locations. Unlike over the weekend, guidance is in good
agreement on 850 millibar/mountain temperatures falling below
freezing (estimated snow levels around 2500-3000 feet), so if
there is sufficient moisture for showers, there should be some
light snow/flurries, as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A broad upper trough
will remain fairly entrenched across eastern Canada for mid to
late week. As a result, shortwaves will periodically pinwheel
around the trough and move across our region, bringing rounds of
showers. There`s some model consensus that by late week, one of
these will develop a closed low at mid/high levels while a
surface low develops off the East Coast. This would point toward
cooler temperatures (the GFS has highs in the 30s and 40s by
Thu/Fri), but there`s still plenty of uncertainty given we`re a
week out. Have stayed with the WPC/NBM forecast for now, which
while a bit on the warm side, does still indicate chances for
nighttime snow showers over higher elevations, while
precipitation should fall as rain during the daylight hours with
highs mainly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Saturday...Other than localized and brief IFR/MVFR
in patchy fog this morning, VFR will prevail at all terminals
through much of the TAF period. Mid clouds will dominate through
the day, gradually lowering this evening and overnight as low
pressure approaches from the west. Anticipate widespread MVFR
ceilings after 06z or so, but note guidance is indicating IFR
conditions are likely late in the period. Have only included at
KMSS/KSLK at this time as confidence was highest at those
locations. Showers are possible at KMSS after 20z, but have kept
mention at PROB30 for now. Light and variable winds generally
trend N/NE through the day, except more easterly at KRUT.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance
SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Kutikoff
DISCUSSION...Kutikoff/Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings