970
FXUS61 KBTV 180536
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
136 AM EDT Sun May 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered strong, potentially severe, thunderstorms will move
through the North County this afternoon and evening with
potential for damaging winds, large hail, very heavy rainfall,
and dangerous lightning. These storms will pass this evening
with low pressure slowly moving through the region Sunday
through Monday with much cooler temperatures and continued
chances of rain.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 124 AM EDT Sunday...No major changes to the forecast with
this update, as light to moderate rain continues to move across
the region. Temperatures across the region are generally in
the 50s at this hour.
Previous Discussion...Temperatures cool sharply tonight into
Sunday with highs in the 50s and 60s. With the cold core of the
low overhead, more showers are anticipated, but no severe
thunderstorms since temperatures cool off dramatically. Upper
low drags northeastward Sunday night pulling rain with it. Lows
in the mid 30s to low 40s are anticipated.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Saturday...Vertically stacked low pressure
will hover over Nova Scotia to start the workweek, drawing in
cooler air from the north and northwest on Monday. Lingering
moisture will help trigger additional showers, mainly across the
far northern Adirondacks, northern Greens, and the Northeast
Kingdom. Northwesterly winds will be breezy with gusts up to
15-25 knots, higher on the mountaintops with a weak low level
jet overhead. NW winds, showers, and increased cloud cover will
result in highs struggling to reach the upper 40s to upper 50s
in the afternoon. As we head into the overnight hours Monday
night, showers should taper off as drier air noses in from the
west, though if showers linger long enough to coincide with
colder temperatures (lows falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s),
we could see some snow mixing in at the highest elevations. No
accumulation is expected. Winds will continue out of the
northwest with perhaps occasional gusts but overall decrease at
night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 316 PM EDT Saturday...The pattern is forecast to stay
active and wet into next weekend, though models continue to
depict a range of varying scenarios and storm tracks. Precip is
possible each day. Due to the above normal precipitation chances
this week, we`ll also see highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the
40s, keeping conditions chilly.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 06Z MONDAY...VFR conditions currently prevail at most
terminals, with ceilings expected to gradually lower towards
MVFR and even IFR throughout the TAF period. Light to moderate
showers continue across the region, and while a brief lull will
be possible, shower activity is expected to continue throughout
the forecast period. Winds will gradually shift to become
northwesterly, with increasing gusts after 18Z.
Outlook...
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are currently no flood warnings in effect, as the Mad
River at Moretown has dropped below flood stage. Some light rain
continues to fall across the region, but no additional
hydrologic concerns are expected.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Kremer
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer
HYDROLOGY...Neiles
|
