971
FXUS61 KBTV 281850
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
150 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 127 PM EST Wednesday...
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for northern New York
outside the Champlain Valley for Thursday night and Friday
morning. Wind chills in the -20 to -30 degree range are
expected.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 127 PM EST Wednesday...
1. Cold temperatures and breezes will result in dangerously cold
wind chills Thursday night for much of northern New York.
2. Snow showers will occur periodically through Friday.
3. A coastal low is expected to develop this weekend, likely
tracking well to our south with little impact expected across
Vermont and northern New York.
4. After a prolonged period of well below normal temperatures,
temperatures look to moderate somewhat early next week, with
relatively dry conditions for the first half of next week. &&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 127 PM EST Wednesday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to
move through the region Thursday and Thursday night as a trough
passes. Winds will likely remain elevated through the nocturnal
hours with around 30kts at 850mb. Model soundings favor keeping
winds couple with across northern New York where gusts could
exceed 20 mph. Cold air advection combined with winds will
result in wind chills ranging -20F to -30F for most locations
in northern New York with -5F to -20F anticipated from the
Champlain Valley eastward through Vermont. Some model guidance
suggests a little more wind could occur in northern New York
pointing to potential wind chills below -30F for portions of
Essex/southern Franklin County of New York, but confidence in
those speeds are lower at this time. Should breezier/colder
conditions play out, the risk of hypothermia/frostbite would
increase.
KEY MESSAGE 2: 850-500mb cyclonic flow continues to favor
periods of snow showers across the region through Friday. This
will be especially true through tonight due to some lake
enhancement off of Lake Ontario. Once the band waggles southward
again tomorrow, best chances of isolated to scattered showers
will remain along the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and
northern Greens. Totals will generally be less than 1 inch.
KEY MESSAGE 3: Model guidance continues to keep a strong
coastal low passing well to our south, with most guidance
keeping precipitation outside of our forecast area across
southern and coastal New England. The latest NBM forecast shows
about 10% to 30% chance of precipitation across Vermont, with
even drier conditions across northern New York, which seems
reasonable given there is still uncertainty regarding the low
track. Breezy north winds are expected for Sunday, with gusts up
to 25 mph possible across much of Vermont given the tight
pressure gradient associated with this system. There is still
plenty of uncertainty regarding this low, particularly with the
low track, so we will continue to monitor the trends but there
is increasing confidence that little impact will be observed
across the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 4: In the wake of the coastal low moving off the
New England coast, temperatures for early next week are expected
to moderate and be closer to normal compared to the recent
cold. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look to climb
into the teens and 20s, closer to climatological normals
although it is still a few degrees cooler. Drier conditions are
expected to persist with surface high pressure building into the
region. A frontal boundary looks to push through towards mid-
week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty right now
regarding those features given the time range.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail across most
terminals this afternoon, although a few lingering snow
showers have lead to MVFR conditions at KEFK, which will likely
continue for a bit longer. These VFR conditions are expected to
continue for the next several hours, with MVFR ceilings expected
to develop this evening, towards 3Z or so. Additional snow
showers will be possible overnight, although confidence
continues to be low on the exact extent and impacts of these
showers, so continued with the PROB30s in the forecast.
Conditions will trend back towards VFR at the end of the
forecast period, with cloud cover expected to become more
scattered in nature. Winds will be light over the next 24 hours,
less than 10 knots. Winds continue to be southwesterly this
afternoon, but will become more variable overnight, with
northerly winds expected by the end of the forecast period.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
The Saranac Lake Airport weather sensor will have its
temperature aspirator changed tomorrow, 1/29/2026. The
temperature sensor has been reporting temperatures that have
been too warm for the last few days.
NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt.
Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational
at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but
repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due
to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of
return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA
Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during
this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG
546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.
The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service.
This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn`t an
estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when
navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us
if you observe winds significantly deviating from the
recreational forecast.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday
for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Boyd
AVIATION...Kremer
EQUIPMENT...NWS BTV
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