517
FXUS61 KBTV 301851
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms return late tonight through much
of tomorrow as a series of fronts traverses the region. Dry weather
prevails through Wednesday before shower chances increase Thursday.
Temperatures will be close to average this week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 PM EDT Monday...Clouds will gradually increase this evening
and tonight ahead of a prefrontal trough that moves through tomorrow
morning. Precipitation should hold off until late tonight. This
feature will bring multiple rounds of showers tomorrow, but they
should be out of the region by mid afternoon. These showers will
contain a few embedded thunderstorms but any instability should be
elevated. Clearing behind this trough may allow for a couple
thunderstorms to form later in the afternoon, mostly over central
and southern Vermont. There are several factors acting against any
severe potential, but with high dew points from the region already
being in the warm sector and plentiful shear, isolated severe storms
are still possible. Mid-level lapse rates will be relatively shallow
and resemble a moist adiabatic profile, there will likely be some
clouds and showers around from the prefrontal trough to prevent
efficient destabilization, there will be no CIN behind the
prefrontal trough, and there is not much of a defined frontal
feature/surface convergence. Despite atmospheric conditions being
very favorable for heavy rain, fast storm motion should prevent much
of a flood threat. The cooler and drier air gradually filters in
Tuesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 251 PM EDT Monday...Dry weather prevails through Wednesday,
with northwest flow bringing in cooler temperatures and lower
humidity. By afternoon, dew points should be down into the 50s for
most areas. A trough will be digging into the region and it will
drop temperatures aloft, but lapse rates will likely stay low enough
where shower chances will be inhibited.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 251 PM EDT Monday...Temperatures aloft will continue to drop
into Thursday and this will cause some instability to develop as
diurnal heating warms surface temperatures. A shortwave will also
provide synoptic forcing and it will increase the shower coverage.
There may be enough forcing to create a more linear feature in the
afternoon. Some embedded thunderstorms are likely but the cold core
setup is not favorable for severe weather. The showers should
diminish Thursday evening as the shortwave passes to the east and
the diurnal heating ends. Guidance is now leaning toward having a
pocket of anomalously cold air aloft stay to the north Thursday
night and Friday. This should keep many of the showers to the north
during this period, but there will still be a few shower chances,
particularly across the Northeast Kingdom. Surface high pressure
begins to build in on Friday and it will bring an end to the rain.
Dry weather should prevail through Saturday before shower chances
increase for Sunday. Temperatures during the period look to be close
to seasonable with relatively low dew points.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 18Z TUESDAY...Skies clear with mainly southwest winds,
though there is some variability and a stout lake breeze of 13
knots at KPBG. Conditions will remain quiet with winds subsiding
after 22z. Isolated to scattered showers lift northeast between
04z and 10z, followed by more concentrated, moderate to heavy
rain tracking east across northern New York about 10-13z and
across Vermont about 13z-16z. Showers may reduce visibility to
3-6SM, locally lower possible in downpours or thunderstorms,
and then ceilings will drop to 1500-3500 ft agl. South to
southwest winds behind precipitation will increase to 8 to 13
knots with gusts 16 to 20 knots possible.
Outlook...
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Independence Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes
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