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  Thursday May 26, 2022

 

NWS Area Forecast Discussion


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000
FXUS61 KBTV 261935
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
335 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy to gusty winds will continue with a warm night in the
50s and 60s are expected. Unsettled weather returns for Friday
and Saturday as a low pressure system moves over the Northeast.
Any thunderstorms that develop will have the potential to
produce locally heavy rain. A warming trend will continue
headed into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...It has been a windy day across the
North Country. Surface high pressure near 1030mb and a weak
surface low has produced strong gradient flow across the region,
and the flow aloft has also been moderately strong as well with
an upper ridge beginning to be displaced by a stunning upper low
in the Mississippi River Valley. The core of a low-level jet
lifted northwards just before noon, and with that, the worst of
our wind gusts are behind us. However, flow is still sufficiently
strong to produce 25 to 30 mph wind gusts, locally up to 35 mph
in the Champlain Valley, and do not see any reason for that to
subside through tomorrow. Temperatures were initially slow to
rise this morning, but with the clearing that took place, most
of the North Country has made it into the 70s. Due to strong
south winds, anticipate above normal lows, in the upper 50s to
mid 60s tonight.

For tomorrow, strong poleward transport of subtropical air will
bring dewpoints into the mid 60s. PWATs approach the 90th
percentile, and with some instability, a few thunderstorms will
be possible. Despite pieces of vorticity peeling off the upper
low and into our area with slight height falls, it seems the
influence of the upper ridge may just be enough to keep showers
and thunderstorms initially confined to northern New York. As a
cold front approaches from the northwest and the upper low opens
up and shifts northeastwards, some convection will develop late
Friday evening into the overnight hours. With that, shifted the
focus of the highest PoPs later. Any thunderstorms that do
develop will have the potential to produce locally heavy rain.
With multiple features supporting convection, multiple rounds
may be possible. While probabilities of exceeding flash flood
guidance are not high, the potential exists, as noted in the
marginal risk of excessive rainfall forecast from the Weather
Prediction Center.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...The trends in model guidance aren`t your
friend if you`re looking to enjoy the outdoors much of Saturday. The
upper level trough passage continues to look slower with each model
run with the main trough axis not expected to push through the
region until 18Z-21Z. This should keep high PoPs in the forecast as
decent moisture (PWATs not as high on Friday, however) across the
North Country. Strong ascent ahead of the shortwave trough Saturday
morning coupled with 500-750 J/kg of SBCAPE should be more than
enough to yield some morning and early afternoon thunderstorms until
the trough axis slides through. Once the trough exits to the east,
subsidence will quickly build as deep layer ridging becomes
established Saturday afternoon/evening yielding a quick shut-off to
area precipitation and thunderstorms. There are some subtle heavy
rain signatures between tall/skinny CAPE, higher than normal PWAT
values and unidirectional flow through the atmosphere. There could
lead to training of showers and thunderstorms through the first half
of Saturday as multiple weak disturbances are expected ahead of the
longwave trough. Rainfall amounts should generally range from half
of an inch to an inch of rain but wouldn`t be surprising to see some
localized heavier rainfall totals at or above 1.5".

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...Sunday appears to be the cream of the
crop in the extended forecast with seasonal temperatures, light
winds, and mostly clear skies. Deep layer ridging will be directly
overhead by Sunday morning which will allow for clearing skies and
very pleasant weather. This will be the coolest day within the
forecast period as a warming trend is expected throughout the middle
of next week and possibly continuing thereafter. While it still
looks like a dominant east coast ridge sets up for next week, the
latest model guidance suggests a more southern track which keeps the
warmest air suppressed to the south. This means two things: 1 -
Afternoon highs are now expected to plateau in the lower to mid 80s.
2 - Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be in play starting
midweek as several "ridge rollers" could move through the region.
This low amplitude waves of energy are tough to forecast this far
out so we have covered late week with just chance PoPs but it
wouldn`t be too surprising to see some good thunderstorm activity
sometimes late this week. In addition to the southern trend of the
upper level ridge, there are signals for a back-door cold front
Wednesday but guidance still remains all over the place.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 18Z Friday...Mainly VFR the next several hours with
south to southwest winds 10 to 18 knots sustained with gusts 20
to 28 knots, locally up to 35 knots at KBTV. Several reports of
turbulence have been noted on approach at KBTV, with southwest
gusts resulting in some cross winds. These gusts should
gradually subside today, but even after 00Z, sustained south
winds should remain 8 to 13 knots. With decreasing winds, LLWS
will be possible at KMSS, KRUT, KMPV, and KEFK between about 05Z
and 10Z. Beyond 06Z, lowering ceilings are expected, with all
terminals 2500-3500 ft agl around 12Z. Scattered showers develop
around KMSS and KSLK around 04Z to 10Z that lift north, and
then a better chance for showers will move towards northern New
York between 12Z and 16Z.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Memorial Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A lake wind advisory remains in effect for today and tonight
with strong southerly flow in place. Sustained south winds 20 to
25 knots and gusts up to 30 kts will result in waves 3 to 5
feet, especially over the broad lake. These winds will likely
continue into the overnight hours.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Clay
LONG TERM...Clay
AVIATION...Haynes
MARINE...Neiles


 
 
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