289
FXUS61 KBTV 032336
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 PM EDT Thu Apr 3 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The strong winds will diminish this evening. High pressure brings a
dry and relatively seasonable day tomorrow, before another storm
system moves in for the weekend. While some wintry mix is possible
at the onset, it should be mostly rain. Temperatures fall below
climatological normal heading into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 734 PM EDT Thursday...Winds continue to slowly abate this
evening but leave behind nearly 3000 power outages across our
northern New York zones this evening. The good news is that as
the evening progresses, winds will continue to lighten so no
additional power outages appear likely at this time.
Temperatures have been slow to fall as the gusty winds continue
to keep much of the region well mixed but as we begin to
decouple tonight, temperatures should fall as a result. Water
vapor imagery shows a very pronounced pocket of drier air moving
overhead so we have decided to drop PoPs down to 0% for the
remainder of the evening/overnight period.
Previous Discussion...A cold front is moving through this
afternoon and it is bringing along a few light showers. The
atmosphere mixes efficiently behind it and the highest temperatures
have been occurring after its passage due to this. Winds also
increase behind the front, and gusts have been in the 30-50 mph
range in northern New York after it went through. They winds will
weaken a bit as they move into Vermont though. Ahead of the front,
cold temperatures have been stubborn east of the Greens where
temperatures have been stuck in the 30s and 40s, despite very mild
air aloft. Ceilings have lowered and they have enshrouded some of
the higher passes in fog. As the front comes through, this low
moisture will scour out quickly and temperatures will briefly rise,
before cooling down overnight. Temperatures will be in the 30s and
40s most places by tomorrow morning. Ridging builds into the region
tomorrow and skies will clear. However, high clouds will move in
tomorrow night ahead of a long-duration storm system this weekend.
Temperatures will be relatively seasonable or slightly above
climatological normals tomorrow and tomorrow night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...The next system will be moving into the
North Country from southwest to northeast Saturday morning. Unlike
the past couple of systems, elevations below 2500ft will be above
freezing when the system moves in keeping precipitation character as
initially snow through wetbulb processes, then a quick transition to
rain. Above 2500ft, a period of freezing rain is likely after
transitioning Global models and ensembles prog QPF in the 0.5-1"
range Saturday through Sunday which seems reasonable given moisture
tap around the western periphery of the semi-persistent Bermuda
ridge and out of the deep south. Once this system moves more firmly
into he mesoscale time range, so should see some downward
adjustments for downslope areas. Rivers will be rising again, but
ensembles overwhelmingly keep hydrographs below flood stage. We
could see some mainstem rivers reach near bankfull, but threat of
widespread flooding remains low. Biggest forecast uncertainty is
related to the strength of the system with some guidance favoring
weakening synoptic dynamics resulting in less QPF. A modestly strong
low level jet will accompany this wave, again coincident with
precipitation, so winds will be elevated but largely below maximum
potential. As such, SFC gusts 25-40 mph seem reasonable for
channeled and downslope areas with broader areas seeing gusts 20 to
25 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Thursday...Models favor relative cool-down heading
into Monday with low level ridge transiting quickly across the North
Country. While SFC temperatures don`t cool drastically, upper level
long wave troughing will support sharply cooling profiles above
2000ft. Meanwhile, the next system is expected to quickly move
through the region Monday night through Tuesday. Profiles and
wetbulbing will promote all snow for much of this period with mixed
rain/snow for valleys in the afternoon. However, QPF will be lower
given speed of the system and lack of deep moisture tap. Forcing
could be strong enough for some pellets while, associated winds
aren`t expected to be overly strong, but could be enough to promote
low-visibility showers. Longwave trough will likely remain over the
region past Tuesday with additional periods of rain/snow moving
through next week. Temperatures are favored to remain near to below
average temperatures with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s to
low 30s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Dry air is shifting into the region with
a pocket of clear skies. The main forecast concern is lingering
LLWS due to 35 to 45 knot west to west-northwest winds around
2000 ft agl. Once the cold front crosses between 04z and 07z,
these will diminish. Then, the TAF is mostly shifting surface southwest
winds to northwest. Some 2000-3000 ft agl ceilings, mainly over
KEFK and KSLK will follow behind the front, but no
precipitation is expected. Some fluctuation in speed below 7
knots is possible overnight, but as the Sun rises about 12z,
wind speeds will increase back towards 8 to 13 knots sustained
with gusts 16 to 23 knots. Skies will trend mostly clear after
16z, and then winds begin to abate after 22z.
Outlook...
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite RA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite
RA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHSN, Chance
SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN,
Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Clay/Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Boyd
LONG TERM...Boyd
AVIATION...Haynes/Myskowski
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