025
FXUS61 KBTV 141427
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1027 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at all levels of the atmosphere will produce plenty of
sunshine and warm temperatures this weekend into most of next week.
A weak back door front today could produce an isolated shower over
north central Vermont. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the
mid 70s to lower 80s with lows in the upper 40s to near 60. Areas of
patchy fog are likely in the deeper valley locations each morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1024 AM EDT Saturday...Fog is slowly burning off this
morning acrs central/eastern VT valleys with mostly sunny skies
developing. Weak backdoor boundary is located along the
International Border at 14 UTC, which may provide just enough
convergence with some sfc based instability to produce a couple
of showers mostly over the trrn btwn 17z-21z this aftn. Have
continued with pops in the 15-25% range for central/eastern VT
and parts of the eastern Dacks to cover this small potential.
Based on sounding data, areal coverage wl be very limited due to
deep dry layer in place. Otherwise, temps warm back into the mid
70s to lower 80s for highs, very similar to yesterday.

Previous discussion...Nearly vertically stacked high pressure
across the forecast area means mainly dry and slowly modifying
airmass during the day and light winds and fog at night.

Currently...we`re seeing fog expand slightly out of our normal
locations with ideal radiational cooling and slightly higher low
level moisture than yesterday.

Surface high centered across the area today with Upper level high
over the eastern Great Lakes shifting east across our CWA later
today through Sunday. A weak shortwave and backdoor front with
slightly stronger surface high across eastern Quebec will drop south
today.

Dewpoints in the 50s-L60s and some surface base heating will allow
some instability but its rather dry aloft, especially between 850-
500mb as previous forecaster mentioned, so will continue with any
shower probabilities of 20% or less, with any -shra being terrain
driven in NC-NE VT.

Progged 925mb temps are basically the same as Friday, with values
btwn 18-21C, perhaps a degree higher through the weekend supporting
highs mid 70s to l/m 80s most locations. Fog is likely again, maybe
a bit less areal coverage, as slightly cooler and drier air develops
on northerly flow. Lows range from the upper 40s SLK/NEK to near 60F
BTV.

As just mentioned...temperatures perhaps a degree warmer Sunday than
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...An extensive area of high pressure will
be centered almost directly overhead, leading to another day of dry
weather. Dry profiles at all levels and subsidence from the high
should be enough to even prevent cumulus development in the
afternoon, so skies will be almost completely clear. Temperatures
will rise into the low-to mid 80s, and with 925 mb temperatures
around 20-22 degrees celsius, the upper 80s cannot be ruled out in
some of the warmer valleys. Patchy fog will develop in the
climatologically favored valleys Monday morning due to clear skies
and calm winds. There will also be some humidity, particularly in
the broad valleys, where the dew points will be in the low to mid
60s during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 327 AM EDT Saturday...A rex block looks to prevail through this
period, with a weak storm containing some tropical characteristics
forming off the coast of the southeast, and an extensive area of
nearly-stationary high pressure centering over southern Canada and
the Northeast. The region will be under the influence of the high
and no meaningful rain is expected. Persistence is the theme of the
forecast, with minimal variability in the low and high temperatures.
However, with clear skies and light winds, there will be relatively
large diurnal ranges and patchy nighttime fog development.
Temperatures will be well above the climatological normals and there
will be a little bit of humidity, particularly in the broad valleys.
Next week, tropical moisture will slowly move up the Atlantic Coast
as the center of the high pushes off to the east. The operational
GFS and Canadian bring rain showers to the southern zones as early
as Wednesday afternoon, but ensemble probabilities of these areas
receiving measurable rainfall are less than 15 percent. They
increase to around 30 percent Thursday afternoon. The Euro keeps
this moisture completely to the south though. A backdoor cold front
will approach on Friday and it could bring a couple additional
showers, but overall, any rainfall looks to be inconsequential. To
reflect the uncertainty, have some slight chance PoPs for parts of
the region Wednesday-Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Ideal radiational cooling accouted for
widespread fog development overnight and it will lift/dissipate
within the next few hours with KMPV likely being the last TAF
site. Backdoor front will bring about some clouds and perhaps an
isolated -shra across NC-NE VT...winds will be light NNE.

More radiational cooling and fog development tonight with IFR-
LIFR likely at KSLK/KMPV, perhaps just a tad later, ard/aft 04z
and not as widespread with slightly drier air.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLW
NEAR TERM...Taber/SLW
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...SLW