145
FXUS61 KBTV 251128
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
628 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After several days of bitterly cold weather earlier this week,
temperatures will continue to moderate this weekend into early next
week with a few periods of snow showers possible. A cold front
crosses through on Tuesday, bringing another shot of Arctic air by
midweek next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 609 AM EST Saturday...Have increased sky cover as clouds
continue to overspread the region this morning, and lowered
hourly temperatures and dew points as temperatures have fallen
quickly before clouds moved in. Otherwise, forecast is on
track.

Previous discussion...High pressure will shift eastward today
but linger long enough to provide a pretty dry day for the
forecast area. Winds will increase out of the south/southwest,
bringing slightly milder temperatures into the region. Highs are
expected to top out in the upper teens to mid 20s and wind
gusts up to 15-20 knots are possible in the afternoon as a
shortwave approaches from the west. This shortwave will cause
increasing clouds into the evening and overnight hours as well
as increasing chances of precipitation for northern New York,
the Northeast Kingdom, and even a bit on the spine of the
Greens.

Most likely spot for snow showers tonight will be southern St.
Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York where southwesterly winds
off Lake Ontario will help add some lake enhancement assistance.
Snow amounts of up to 1-2 inches across St. Lawrence, Franklin, and
Essex counties of New York are anticipated, with perhaps a dusting
to a few tenths of an inch possible in the Northeast Kingdom and
Greens. Winds will continue to increase, particularly across
mountaintops and along Lake Champlain as a low level jet spreads
across the forecast area.

This may produce areas of blowing snow as well at higher elevations,
particularly as snow ratios appear to remain high, over 15:1,
producing light and fluffy snow. Lows will be relatively mild in the
mid teens to lower 20s, however, some areas east of the Greens could
fall into the single digits as milder air takes the longest to
arrive there. Winds and temperatures will continue to increase
tomorrow with winds turning more westerly and gusts 20-30 knots,
higher on summits, with the continued threat of blowing, fluffy
snow.

Warm air advection will help temperatures rise into the mid 20s to
mid 30s tomorrow as a surface shortwave crosses to our north. With
this surface trough, we`re seeing modeled CAPE values of up to 80
J/kg and steep lapse rates, indicating there is the potential for
some squall-like snow showers throughout the day tomorrow. Highest
chances of precipitation exist for westerly upslope areas of the
Adirondacks, Greens, and Northeast Kingdom. Additional snow amounts
of up to 1-2 inches are anticipated in the Adirondacks and
Greens/Northeast Kingdom with even higher amounts possible in the
northern Greens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Saturday...Sunday night and Monday will feature
warmer than normal temperatures, and overall quiet weather. Will
have some lake effect snow showers reaching parts of St Lawrence
county in New York with generally light accumulations. Some isolated
spots could have a few inches of fluffy snow before snow starts to
wind down Sunday night. Looks like Monday will be the last above
normal day for the rest of the week as a strong cold front will
approach the region. Ahead of this front winds will be brisk out of
the southwest.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 AM EST Saturday...Monday night onward will feature cooling
temperatures and active weather. A strong arctic cold front will
cross our region Monday night, bringing with it our next chance for
some light snow as well as a much colder air mass. Strong
southwesterly winds will continue ahead of the frontal passage, then
winds will be out of the northwest behind the front, and cold air
advection will begin in earnest. Strong frontogenesis with this
front with tightly packed thermal gradient ahead of and behind the
front. This leads to strong forcing in the lower levels, and we will
have to monitor for potential for heavier snow showers or even snow
squalls. With front passing through the region overnight,
instability will be limited. There won`t be much of a break in the
weather, and a clipper system will cross our area Wednesday bringing
next chance for light snow showers. Much colder air will be in place
for the tail end of the work week, and minimum temperatures are
forecast to be below zero areawide on Thursday night. Gradient flow
will also be strong so we may need cold weather headlines once
again.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 12Z Sunday...Primarily VFR conditions anticipated to
continue through about 18Z Saturday with winds southerly to
southwesterly 5-15 knots. Around 18Z Saturday, we`ll start to
see snow showers and lowering ceilings move in from west to
east. MSS is likely the first to see ceilings fall to about
2000-3000 feet, then SLK should join it around 04Z Sunday.
Finally, MVFR ceilings could potentially reach EFK by about 10Z
Sunday. Along with these ceilings, visibilities could fall into
MVFR or even IFR levels at these sites 04Z Sunday onward, but
the details will need to be fleshed out further in the coming
TAF issuances. A low level jet will also move into the area
after 18Z Saturday, causing LLWS at MSS, SLK, and MPV. Surface
winds are expected to gust 15-25 knots 08Z-10Z onwards at BTV,
SLK, and MSS out of the south/southwest.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Chance SHSN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Windy
with gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Storm
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Storm