226
FXUS61 KBTV 270731
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
331 AM EDT Sat Jul 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will prevail this weekend, with plentiful sunshine and
low humidity. The dry weather continues through Monday, but the
humidity will begin to increase. Shower chances return for the
middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...It`s shaping up to be a pleasant weekend
across the region as upper level ridging and surface pressure build
into the region. Today will feature mostly clear skies, with
northwesterly flow continuing to usher in dry air. Wildfire smoke
the fires out west may continue to impact the region tomorrow,
possibly making skies hazy tomorrow, but the smokes looks to remain
aloft. Daytime highs will be quite seasonable this afternoon,
although a few degrees warmer than yesterday, with temperatures in
the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dewpoints will continue to be in the 50s,
making it feel quite comfortable. Another efficient radiational
cooling night is expected overnight, with some patchy valley fog
possible and overnight lows dropping into the 50s and lower 60s.

Sunday will be a few degrees warmer than today, with high
temperatures in the 80s and some locations in the broad valleys
nearing 90. Fairly pleasant conditions will continue as the ridge
continues to move overhead, with some sunshine and dry weather
prevailing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...Overall uneventful weather is expected
for this period. A retrograding weak low pressure system brings the
potential for increased cloud cover to start the new work week. Most
of the shower activity does stay east of the Connecticut River
valley, however, so have maintained an overall dry forecast across
our forecast area on Monday. The increased cloud cover is expected
to keep a lid on high temperatures, which should generally top out
in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 331 AM EDT Saturday...The upper ridge parked over the Northeast
gradually breaks down as we head into mid week and the month of
August. Out ahead of the slow- moving upper level trough, PWATs rise
to 150 percent of climatological normal so there is the increased
risk of heavy rainfall during downpours and embedded thunderstorms.
WPC currently has a Day 5 marginal excessive rainfall outlook for
most of our region, which is reasonable given the aforementioned
factors. While a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, severe weather
looks unlikely at this time given the unimpressive lapse rates and
instability parameters. Additionally, while it could get quite muggy
with dew points rising into the upper 60s and lower 70s, air
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s would keep apparent
temperatures generally in the lower 90s. In other words, while it
could get quite uncomfortable outside, this is not uncommon for mid
summer. Overnight lows would also likely be quite mild, gnarly 60s
to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions continue to prevail at
all terminals, and are expected for most of the forecast period.
The only exception to VFR conditions would be the development
of patchy valley fog overnight, with KSLK, KMPV, and KEFK the
most likely to see reduced flight conditions. There is still
some uncertainty regarding the fog development, especially with
the timing and how much visibilities will drop, however any fog
that does develop should dissipate by 12Z. Winds overnight will
be light and terrain-driven, becoming northwesterly during the
afternoon then becoming light and variable again after sunset.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Kremer