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84.6°F |
Current conditions from King Hill Updated every 5 minutes |
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Monday July 14, 2025 | |||||||
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SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 14 19:46:01 UTC 2025No watches are valid as of Mon Jul 14 19:46:01 UTC 2025. SPC MD 1669MD 1669 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 1669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Georgia into northern/central Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 141918Z - 142145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, posing an isolated threat of damaging winds. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated on low-level convergence boundaries across the region this afternoon in a hot, unstable (~2500 J/kg MLCAPE) airmass. While upper-tropospheric flow is weak (per XMR 14Z sounding), enhanced low-to-midlevel northerly flow on the west side of the low off the Atlantic coast may help storm organization. Local VWPs indicate around 25-30 knots of flow between 700 and 500 mb, which may help to organize southward-to-south-southwestward-propagating clusters as cold pools begin to merge. These storms will pose a damaging-wind threat this afternoon, but the impacts are expected to be too isolated to warrant a watch. ..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 26808223 27278110 28788125 29898159 30868165 31688153 31898189 31778225 30928258 30228283 29458293 28818264 28168277 27498273 26808223 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPHRead more SPC MD 1668MD 1668 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF MD/DC...NORTHERN/CENTRAL VA...THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST PA...FAR WESTERN NJ...NORTHERN DE...
Mesoscale Discussion 1668 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0120 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Areas affected...parts of MD/DC...northern/central VA...the eastern WV Panhandle...Southeast PA...far western NJ...northern DE, Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 141820Z - 142045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Storms with potential for isolated to scattered wind damage are expected later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong heating of a very moist (PW near/above 2 inches) environment is underway this afternoon from southeast PA into MD and northern/central VA. MLCAPE is already above 2000 J/kg across much of the region, and may increase to near/above 3000 J/kg in areas where preconvective heating continues through late afternoon. Storms have already developed across central PA, with additional development recently noted farther south along the Blue Ridge into northwest/west-central VA. Storm coverage will continue to increase with time, in response to an approaching midlevel shortwave trough currently over western PA. Poor midlevel lapse rates and relatively weak effective shear (generally 15-25 kt) will tend to limit storm organization to some extent. However, the strongest initial cells may be capable of producing localized downbursts within the very moist environment. With time, consolidating outflows may result in one or more eastward-moving clusters that would move across the Mid Atlantic region. Any such cluster may be capable of producing localized swaths of more concentrated wind damage. Watch issuance is possible, depending on trends regarding clustering of storms with time. ..Dean/Mosier.. 07/14/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 37827936 39877798 41067595 40757500 40237500 39597536 38457668 37717771 37387870 37827936 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPHRead more SPC Jul 14, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION IN HEADLINE ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians, along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating. Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough) moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern PA through central VA. ...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota... Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout the afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions tonight. ...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula... Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated strong to severe winds are possible. ...AZ... High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse. ...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South... A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging downbursts. ..Mosier.. 07/14/2025Read more SPC Jul 14, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 OutlookDay 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern Great Basin. ...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest... A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow, height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN. South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD, extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and hail. A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours. Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging gusts through 12z. Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two. Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along the front. ...Eastern Great Basin... As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating, scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should support a larger concentration and greater persistence of strong/occasionally severe storm clusters. ...Mid MS Valley... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley. These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook, confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce higher severe probabilities. ...Southern AZ... Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL. ...Southeast and FL... A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional severe potential is low. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025Read more SPC Jul 14, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm OutlookSPC 1930Z Day 3 OutlookDay 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Central Plains... At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA. Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However, sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and hail risk from the central High plains eastward. ...Great Lakes... As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front, redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the general environment will be favorable for severe storms with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear. ...Gulf Coast... A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur, though convective details remain limited. ...Upper OH Valley... On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley. Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time. ..Lyons.. 07/14/2025Read more SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookDay 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL WASHINGTON... ...Central/Northeastern Utah and Northwestern Colorado... A weak upper-level wave evident in water vapor imagery will move through northern Utah today. Slightly increased mid-level flow on the southern periphery of the wave will support enhanced dry downslope flow into the Uinta Basin and along and east of the central Utah mountain chain. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph along with 10-15 percent relative humidity will result in a period of elevated fire weather conditions over dry fuels where ERC values are around the 97th percentile. Otherwise, no major changes to previous forecast (see below) for the Northwest, Great Basin or Snake River Plain highlights. ..Williams.. 07/14/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will bring a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft across portions of the Pacific Northwest today. A period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions can be expected across the Columbia River Basin in Oregon and Washington and in the Snake River Plain in Idaho. The trough will also promote dry thunderstorm development across the Great Basin. ...Cascades and Columbia River Basin... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with west winds around 15 mph promoting elevated fire weather concerns for the Columbia River Basin through Monday afternoon. A considerable wind shift is expected with the dry cold front passage beginning early afternoon across the Okanagan Valley before reaching the Columbia River by evening. Although relative humidity will rise behind the front, a few hours of sustained north winds of 20-30 mph will create Critical fire weather concerns and could significantly impact existing active or new fires Monday. ...Snake River Plain... Relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will combine with westerly winds around 10-15 mph (locally higher) through Monday afternoon. Locally stronger winds may bring near Critical to Critical conditions, however the localized nature precludes inclusion of a Critical area at this time. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Forcing for ascent with the upper-level trough will allow for high based convection to develop across portions of the northern Great Basin. Primarily mid-level moisture will overspread a very dry and warm boundary layer, with little to no precipitation and storm motions around 10-20 mph. This in combination with critical fuels supports maintaining and area of isolated dry thunderstorm chances across northern Nevada into southeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and far northeastern Nevada. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more |
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