RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 8 16:32:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 8 16:32:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave
trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO
Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern
Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to
remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly
northeastward and moving off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening.
At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from
northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist
along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and
another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front
are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem
with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward.
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of
this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast,
as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front
will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but
thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early
evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated
strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm
coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and
weak low to mid-level flow.
...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia...
Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast
VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina
coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this
morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints
spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will
likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the
central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon.
Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level
lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate
shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in
a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level
lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more
organized and persistent updrafts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong to locally severe storms capable of
hail may linger across South Texas today.
...Carolinas and Southeast Virginia...
At midday, temperatures continue to warm through the 70s F, nearing
80F, across the Piedmont and coastal plain ahead of a cold front, in
the presence of middle 60s F dewpoints. This will continue to yield
weakening inhibition and modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg) this afternoon, with increasing storm development
anticipated by mid/late afternoon. The combination of modest
buoyancy, moderate shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold
front will likely yield a few stronger, more organized storms. Given
the steep low-level lapse rates, locally strong outflow/damaging
gusts are possible within any more organized and persistent
updrafts, particularly with development across the coastal plain.
...South Texas...
A couple of strong/locally severe storms capable of large hail may
linger today within an elevated supercell-favorable environment.
Effective shear exceeds 40 kt and elevated MUCAPE is estimated to be
around 1000-1500 J/kg based on available 12z observed soundings and
latest SPC Mesoanalysis data.
..Guyer/Halbert.. 03/08/2026
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081700Z - 091200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the southern Plains highlights to account for the
latest guidance consensus.
..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026/
...Synopsis...
Elevated to critical fire weather concerns are expected this
afternoon across portions of the High Plains. Weak lee troughing is
noted in early-morning surface observations along the High Plains
with further deepening anticipated through late afternoon as
initially weak mid-level flow over the Rockies strengthens later
today. Surface pressure falls are expected to be most pronounced
across southeast CO and eastern MT/WY, which should support
strengthening westerly winds and increase fire weather potential.
...Southern High Plains...
Focused lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast CO this
afternoon, which will strengthen westerly downslope winds out of NM
into the OK/TX Panhandle region. Early-morning surface observations
are sampling single-digit dewpoints across northern NM, which is
around the 10th percentile for early March. Aside from RAP
solutions, recent guidance appears to be assimilating this very dry
air mass well and depicts RH minimums in the 10-15% range as the air
mass is advected east. Forecast consensus also suggests that
sustained winds between 15-25 mph are likely with gusts between
30-35 mph probable. Based on recent fire activity over the past week
and substantial monthly rainfall deficits (around 5% of normal),
fuels will likely support fire spread.
...Northern High Plains...
A surface trough/cold front associated with a clipper low traversing
the Canadian Prairies is expected to migrate along the International
border today. This will regionally augment the low-level pressure
gradient as mid-level flow strengthens aloft. The combined effect
will be increasing westerly downslope winds across eastern MT and
WY. Slightly above seasonal moisture content is noted in recent
observations, which yielded 20-25% RH minimums Saturday despite the
effects of downslope warming/drying. Similar humidity conditions are
expected today, which should result in primarily elevated fire
weather conditions across the region. Nonetheless, fuels remain
receptive across the region and will support a fire weather concern.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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