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  Monday April 15, 2024

RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 15 11:04:02 UTC 2024

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 15 11:04:02 UTC 2024.


No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 15 11:04:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Apr 15, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
      
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
LOWER OH VALLEY TO MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday afternoon
to early evening across parts of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley
into the Mid-South.

...Parts of the Midwest to Mid-South...
Occluding surface cyclone in the northeast IA vicinity on Wednesday
morning will further dampen as it tracks towards Lower MI. Despite
weakening tropospheric flow fields, favorable low to deep-layer
shear profiles should persist into early evening. The northeast lobe
of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western Gulf should
spread across at least the Lower OH Valley. While some low-level
warm theta-e advection-driven convection may be ongoing at 12Z
Wednesday, overall signals have been for less convection impacting
the buoyancy plume compared to prior forecasts. As such, potential
for greater daytime destabilization is apparent, with a moderate
MLCAPE field from 1000-2000 J/kg likely. Most guidance suggests
early afternoon convective initiation will occur along the cold
front trailing south-southwest from the occluding cyclone. A mix of
all severe hazards appears possible with both supercells and
multicell clusters. Greatest convective concentration is expected
near/north of the Lower to Central Ohio Valley. The buoyancy plume
should be more confined within this corridor and eventually pinch
off as overturning occurs. With further diminishing of flow fields
into the evening, the severe threat will wane after dusk.

..Grams.. 04/15/2024

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SPC Apr 15, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook
      
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are
evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low
probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX,
with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8.

A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the
Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward
evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded
impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak
and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude
impulses migrating through the flow. 

The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z
NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central
Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening
low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting
into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the
warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest
buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX.

As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be
forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave.
Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based
convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented
baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern
extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear
weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have
delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells
and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an
implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through
much of central TX.

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0202 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...Synopsis...
An upper low and strong jet streak are forecast to intensify and
eject eastward over the Great Plains today and tonight. A lee low
should rapidly deepen over central High Plains with surface pressure
falls and the strong flow aloft bolstering strong surface winds over
much of the Plains. Hot and dry surface conditions atop drying fuels
will allow for widespread critical and localized extremely critical
fire-weather conditions.

...Southern and central High Plains...
As the main upper low phases with the subtropical jet, 70+ kt
mid-level flow will shift eastward and cross the Rockies late in the
afternoon and evening. The rapidly deepening lee low will force
strong west/southwest flow downslope over the High Plains behind a
dryline forecast to mix near 100 degrees west. Sustained surface
winds of 25-40 mph are possible behind the dryline given the strong
pressure falls and enhanced momentum transfer from increasing flow
aloft. Minimum RH values are also expected to be critically low,
falling to 10-15% over much of the High Plains. Widespread dry and
receptive fuels, combined with strong wind gusts and very dry
surface conditions, will support ubiquitous high-end critical
fire-weather concerns from eastern CO and western KS, into parts of
the Panhandles, and eastern NM/west TX. 

Localized extremely critical conditions also appear possible as
strong winds continue to increase into the late afternoon and
evening hours. The most likely corridors for localized extreme
conditions will exist from southeastern CO into parts of western KS
and the northwestern Panhandles, and across parts of the southwest
TX. Here, the overlap of the strongest flow aloft and single digit
RH is possible for a few hours late in the afternoon. Uncertainty on
the duration of extreme conditions remains too large to introduce
any Extremely Critical areas. Considerable uncertainty also exists
on the positioning of the dryline and the amount of mid and
high-level cloud cover. Will maintain a broader Elevated area to
capture the potential for more brief fire-weather conditions should
the dryline mix farther east.

...Missouri Valley...
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible in parts of
northwestern Iowa into southeast South Dakota this afternoon. Dry
air ahead of the warm front and gusty winds will increase prior to
precipitation arriving during the evening/overnight. With these
dry/windy conditions occurring primarily over marginally dry fuels
and over a limited duration, the threat is likely to remain
localized.

..Lyons.. 04/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...Synopsis...
As the upper low ejects eastward over the Plains and into the
Midwest, strong flow aloft will gradually weaken from west to east.
The associated surface low and trailing front/dryline will move
eastward as a secondary cold front moves in from the north. Gusty
winds and low humidity will remain possible over parts of the
southern and central Plains. However, the duration and coverage of
critical conditions is uncertain.

...Southern High Plains to the Texas Big Bend...
As the strong upper low lifts away to the northeast early
D2/Tuesday, winds aloft will slowly diminish across the southern
High Plains through the day. Still, downslope west/northwesterly
flow will favor dry and warm surface conditions over much of eastern
NM and west TX. Surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected through
part of the day along with RH below 20%. While not overly robust, a
few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions
still appear likely given widespread dry fuels.

Localized fire-weather conditions may also briefly develop farther
east into portions of central/eastern KS Tuesday afternoon. Gusty
winds and lower humidity will remain possible, ahead of the
secondary cold front moving south. However, the limited duration and
uncertainty on precipitation from the previous day suggest this
threat will be brief and localized.

..Lyons.. 04/15/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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