RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 207 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 012300Z - 020600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast New Mexico
Texas Panhandle
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 600 PM
until 100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A linear cluster of cells will likely grow upscale into a
linear band of storms as this activity intensifies and moves
east-southeast across the Watch area this evening. Large hail and
severe gusts will be possible with the more intense thunderstorms
and surging outflow.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of
Clayton NM to 55 miles north northeast of Childress TX. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204...WW
205...WW 206...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Smith
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WW 205 SEVERE TSTM TX 012140Z - 020500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South-Central and South Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon from 440 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to
develop through the late afternoon and into the evening. A very
unstable airmass and adequate deep-layer shear will promote
supercell development. Large to giant hail is possible with the
stronger storms. By this evening, a few storms may congeal and move
east of the Rio Grande into parts of south Texas, posing a risk for
large hail and severe gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of
Junction TX to 50 miles west southwest of Laredo TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...WW 204...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
31010.
...Smith
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WW 204 SEVERE TSTM TX 011930Z - 020200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
230 PM CDT Thu May 1 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
SUMMARY...Isolated but intense thunderstorms are expected to form
this afternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass. Slow-moving
supercells capable of very large hail appear to be the main concern.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40
statute miles north and south of a line from 115 miles west of
Temple TX to 65 miles east southeast of Temple TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 203...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24035.
...Hart
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WW 0207 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW AMA TO
25 SE BGD TO 40 SE GUY.
..SPC..05/02/25
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 207
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC011-045-069-075-087-129-179-191-211-295-357-381-393-437-483-
020440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BRISCOE CASTRO
CHILDRESS COLLINGSWORTH DONLEY
GRAY HALL HEMPHILL
LIPSCOMB OCHILTREE RANDALL
ROBERTS SWISHER WHEELER
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0206 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW MRB TO
20 ENE LBE TO 40 N UNV.
..MOORE..05/02/25
ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 206
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
PAC001-009-013-021-027-041-055-057-061-067-087-099-109-119-
020240-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BEDFORD BLAIR
CAMBRIA CENTRE CUMBERLAND
FRANKLIN FULTON HUNTINGDON
JUNIATA MIFFLIN PERRY
SNYDER UNION
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0205 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DRT TO
15 W SAT.
..SPC..05/02/25
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...CRP...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 205
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC031-127-163-259-271-283-323-325-463-479-507-020340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLANCO DIMMIT FRIO
KENDALL KINNEY LA SALLE
MAVERICK MEDINA UVALDE
WEBB ZAVALA
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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WW 0204 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 204
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..05/02/25
ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 204
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC021-027-041-051-053-099-145-281-287-299-309-319-331-333-395-
411-453-491-020340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BASTROP BELL BRAZOS
BURLESON BURNET CORYELL
FALLS LAMPASAS LEE
LLANO MCLENNAN MASON
MILAM MILLS ROBERTSON
SAN SABA TRAVIS WILLIAMSON
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more
MD 0640 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206... FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025
Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...
Valid 020206Z - 020400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206
continues.
SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may persist for the next 1-2 hours
across central Pennsylvania, but a general weakening trend is
expected through 03 UTC amid the onset of nocturnal cooling.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and RAP analyses show an
expansive cold pool in place across central PA in the wake of a
thunderstorm cluster earlier this evening. However, VWP observations
from KCCX continue to show strong warm advection within the lowest
1-2 km AGL, which is not only supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of
200-300 m2/s2, but is also maintaining modest warm/moist advection
into the region from the south/southeast where dewpoints remain in
the low to mid 60s. Consequently, sufficient buoyancy remains in
place across the region to support deep convection - as evidenced by
cooling cloud top temperatures and increasing echo tops over the
past 30 minutes. Given sufficient (albeit limited) buoyancy and
strong low-level wind shear, storm organization remains possible
with an attendant threat for damaging winds in the near term across
central PA. Beyond 03 UTC, confidence in this threat wanes as
nocturnal cooling will continue to promote increasing low-level
inhibition and diminishing buoyancy.
..Moore.. 05/02/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...
LAT...LON 39977890 40737876 41077846 41267808 41267763 41047722
40687715 40337716 39987738 39797769 39747837 39807876
39977890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...
CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC
...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.
...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an
increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.
As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.
At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest.
Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.
..Kerr.. 05/02/2025
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