RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 25 10:38:01 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 25 10:38:01 UTC 2025.
SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday
into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower
Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected.
...DISCUSSION...
Zonal westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the Southeast
on Sunday, as a belt of strong low-level flow remains over the
western Gulf Coast. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into the lower Mississippi Valley and Texas Coastal Plain.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 60s
F. Due to widespread cloud cover, surface heating ahead of the front
is expected to be minimal, and instability should remain weak during
the day. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
develop near the front on Thursday from the Texas Coastal Plain into
southern Louisiana, but weak instability should be unfavorable for
severe storms. This storms are forecast to move eastward into the
lower Mississippi Valley during the evening and overnight period.
..Broyles.. 01/25/2025
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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern
Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but
no severe threat is expected.
...Synopsis...
At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower
Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern
Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of
southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near
the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in
southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very
weak, with no severe threat expected.
..Broyles.. 01/25/2025
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 281200Z - 021200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert
Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest
Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the
southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system
is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into
early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is
forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central
Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models
suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system
approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer
shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into
Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main
uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide
variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also
questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains
early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a
severe threat area at this time.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...
...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of
southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with
additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow
ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected
to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest
through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA
into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will
induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent
portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely.
Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds
will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern
slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph
are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an
increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place
across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the
single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread
RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently,
elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few
hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have
resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs
generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support
the fire weather concern.
..Moore.. 01/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of
southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited
elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early
stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to
continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates
south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath
of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48
hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely
reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper
wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat
muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently,
winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained
winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a
deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger
mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim.
Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums
generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and
breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least
elevated fire weather conditions.
..Moore.. 01/25/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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