RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Sep 17 02:52:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 17 02:52:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND IN NORTH-CENTRAL UTAH...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible early this
evening across parts of the Ohio Valley and in north-central Utah.
...Ohio Valley...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a distinct low-amplitude
shortwave trough in southwest Ontario extending southward toward the
Ohio Valley. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is located
from central Illinois east-northeastward into central Ohio. The
shortwave trough is providing large-ascent, supportive of scattered
thunderstorms ongoing near the front mainly across Ohio. South of
the front, surface dewpoints are in the mid 70s F, which is
contributing to moderate instability with MLCAPE estimated by the
RAP in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. The Wilmington, Ohio 00Z
sounding has 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km, and the latest
WSR-88D VWP from Wilmington has 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot
range. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a
couple more hours this evening, with isolated wind damage possible.
...North-central Utah...
An upper-level low-pressure system is currently located near the
West Coast. Water vapor imagery shows a dry slot along the
southeastern periphery of the system from southern California into
western Utah. Thunderstorms are forming along the eastern edge of
the dry slot across north-central Utah, where large-scale ascent
appears to be maximized. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F with 500 mb
temperatures near -8 C are contributing to weak instability in
north-central Utah, with MLCAPE estimated by the RAP around 1000
J/kg. RAP forecast soundings suggest that low to mid-level lapse
rates are near 7 C/km. This should be steep enough, along with
moderate deep-layer shear, for isolated severe wind gusts and hail
early this evening.
..Broyles.. 09/17/2026
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