RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Wed Jul 29 08:43:02 UTC 2026.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jul 29 08:43:02 UTC 2026.
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OFTHE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA....
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
afternoon and evening in the northern High Plains. Severe wind gusts
will also be possible today across southern Georgia and northern
Florida.
...Northern High Plains...
At mid-levels, a ridge will move eastward into the northern Plains
today. In the wake of the ridge, heights will begin to fall over the
northern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southeastward into northwestern North Dakota and eastern Montana
this afternoon. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to
upper 50s F will contribute to moderate instability as surface
temperatures warm. Low-level convergence along the front will aid
convective initiation, with scattered thunderstorms moving eastward
across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon and early
evening.
RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE
in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-3 km lapse rates are forecast to
be near 9 C/km with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceeding
40 degrees F. This should support a threat for severe wind gusts
with high-based storms that form ahead of the front. The potential
for severe gusts should be greatest in the early evening, especially
if a cold pool can organize across the northern High Plains. Hail
may also develop within the stronger cores.
...Southeast...
A mid-level trough will remain in place along the Eastern Seaboard
today, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia and
southern Alabama. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in
the 70s F will contribute to an axis of strong instability by
afternoon, with MLCAPE likely peaking in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg
range. This, combined with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8 C/km, will be
favorable for damaging wind gusts. The greatest potential for severe
gusts will occur near the strongest instability, which is forecast
to be from southern Georgia into northern Florida.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 07/29/2026
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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL PART
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts
appear possible over south-central South Dakota into central
Nebraska Thursday afternoon and evening. More sporadic occurrences
of mainly damaging wind appear possible from the northern High
Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley into the central Plains,
the Raton Mesa vicinity, and the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough initially over the northern Plains Thursday
morning will translate into the upper Midwest, while a trailing
disturbance moves through the mid MO Valley. Some enhancement of the
mid-level flow is forecast with the secondary system over the
central Plains. In the low levels, a surface low is expected to
track from SD into MN, along a cool front moving through the upper
MS Valley and the northern Plains into the central Plains. A
secondary low is forecast to deepen along the front over central KS.
...Northern High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and the
central Plains...
Latest model guidance continues to indicate showers and
thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Thursday across the northern Plains
into the mid MO Valley, within a zone of forcing for ascent
preceding the lead short-wave trough. A subset of that convection
may linger into afternoon with associated cloud cover limiting
daytime heating and resultant destabilization. Where stronger
heating can occur, the presence of boundary-layer dewpoints in the
60s to low/mid 70s will contribute to MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the cool front and any
differential heating/outflow boundaries associated with previous
and/or active convection. A separate area of storms may also develop
later in the afternoon over eastern MT in the vicinity of a surface
low and lee trough. Damaging winds appear to be the primary hazard,
though isolated occurrences of large hail are also possible.
A number of physics-based models and AI guidance indicate a corridor
from south-central SD into central or eastern NE as being a
preferred location for upscale growth of storms into a
cold-pool-driven MCS Thursday afternoon into evening, which would
enhance the damaging-wind potential. That scenario appears plausible
as the consensus of model guidance depicts that zone as having the
most favorable overlap of moderate to strong instability and modest
vertical shear. Given these considerations, a 15% wind probability
contour and related level 2/Slight Risk have been included to
account for that potential.
Enhanced moisture transport and storm-relative inflow along a
nocturnal low-level jet are likely to sustain a complex of storms
with some damaging wind risk Thursday night, mainly over eastern KS
into the mid MO Valley.
...Raton Mesa vicinity...
Convergence along the southward-moving front and/or upslope in its
immediate wake are expected to foster isolated to widely scattered
storms by mid afternoon along the high terrain. While vertical will
remain relatively weak, the presence of a steep-lapse-rate
environment, featuring a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will
support the potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
...Central and eastern Gulf Coast...
Early-day thunderstorms are expected across portions of the far
northeast Gulf and central FL Peninsula. To the north of that
convection, model guidance indicates a corridor of moderate to
strong instability developing by afternoon in the vicinity of a
stalled front. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorms are expected within
that zone of stronger air mass destabilization with steepening
low-level lapse rates and high precipitable water content supportive
of locally damaging wet microbursts.
..Mead.. 07/29/2026
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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated occurrences of mainly damaging winds and hail appear
possible over the Ozark Plateau and central and southern High Plains
Friday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
A vigorous short-wave trough over the upper Midwest into the mid MO
Valley Friday morning will progress into the mid MS Valley with a
belt of 30-35 kt mid-level flow forecast within the western through
southern periphery of that feature. In the low levels, a surface low
is expected to deepen slightly while developing through IA into
west-central IL with a north-south-oriented warm front preceding the
cyclone. Meanwhile, a trailing cold front will move through the
lower MO Valley and Ozark Plateau with the western extension of the
boundary advancing through the southern High Plains.
...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Ozark Plateau...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing Friday morning
ahead of the surface low from central and eastern IA into MO within
a zone of warm advection and moist transport along a 30-40 kt
low-level jet (LLJ). The LLJ will be maintained through the forecast
period ahead of the surface-850 mb low with the same processes
likely sustaining showers and thunderstorms near and to the east of
the associated warm front/moisture discontinuity. A zone of enhanced
low-level shear will coincide with the LLJ axis; however, it remains
unclear whether sufficient surface-based destabilization will occur
within the narrow warm sector over the mid MS Valley for a tornado
threat to materialize.
Isolated severe storms appear more probable along and ahead of the
cold front over the Ozark Plateau Friday afternoon into evening,
where a wider and more unstable warm sector is expected to reside.
The presence of a vertically veering wind profile with modestly
strong low-level and deep-layer shear may be sufficient for some
storm organization and an associated damaging wind and possible
tornado threat. Only a 5% probability and level 1/Marginal Risk will
be included in this forecast due to uncertainty in surface-based
storm coverage.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms appear possible Friday
afternoon into evening within a moist and moderately unstable
post-frontal upslope regime. Sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast
to support some storm organization with an associated risk for
marginally severe hail and isolated severe wind gusts.
..Mead.. 07/29/2026
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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Saturday...
A short-wave trough will progress from the mid MS into lower OH
Valleys with modest height falls forecast across the Gulf Coast
states. At the surface, an area of low pressure will follow the same
track as the upper-air system, while a trailing cold front advances
through the lower MS and TN Valleys. While weaker than on Friday, a
modest enhancement of 850-mb winds is forecast during the afternoon
ahead of the surface low over the OH and TN Valleys.
Morning storms appear possible from the lower OH into lower MS
Valleys within a zone of warm advection associated with a nocturnal
low-level jet. The longevity and extent of early-day storms remain
uncertain, but where stronger heating can occur, the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the 70s will contribute to pockets of
moderate instability. Additional storms are anticipated during the
afternoon, focused along the cold front and any residual outflow
boundaries from previous storms. Deep-layer shear is expected to
remain generally less than 30 kt, which will tend to limit the
potential for organized storm modes. A possible exception is across
parts of KY and TN where slightly stronger low-level shear could
contribute to updraft rotation and some tornado risk. Otherwise,
locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary hazard.
Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging winds and hail
appear possible over the southern High Plains Saturday afternoon and
evening within a moist and unstable upslope regime.
...Days 5 and 6/Sunday and Monday...
The models remain in relatively good agreement in depicting a strong
short-wave trough and attending belt of mid-level flow progressing
along the international border from the northern Rockies into the
northern Plains. Low-level ridging from the Great Lakes into
southern Plains may disrupt the return of robust boundary-layer
moisture ahead of a cold front moving through the northern Plains
into the upper MS Valley. Nonetheless, the presence of steep lapse
rates and strengthening vertical shear along the frontal zone will
support some severe weather risk over the northern Plains on Sunday
and the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley on Monday.
An isolated severe storm threat may also develop along the East
Coast on Sunday, ahead of a positively tilted trough moving through
the Great Lakes and OH and TN Valley.
...Days 7 and 8/Tuesday and Wednesday...
The 00Z ensemble means indicate a belt of modestly enhanced
mid-level flow from the northern Rockies into the Great Lakes,
between a trough over Hudson Bay and a flattened ridge across the
Southwest. Some severe weather threat may materialize over the
central High Plains along and to the north of a stalled front, and
perhaps in AZ if stronger easterly flow can develop on the south
side of the upper high.
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
...Synopsis...
Weak upper-level troughing will linger over the northwestern US with
a cold front stalling and weakening over the northwest Great Basin
into the northern Rockies. Upper-level heights will build over much
of the West while the upper high remains over the southern High
Plains/Rockies. Weak shortwave troughs may rotate through the weak
troughing over the northwestern US and around the western/northern
periphery of the upper high over portions of the Great Basin and
central Rockies.
Locally elevated conditions are likely to develop across portions of
Nevada with forecast southerly to westerly sustained winds of 10-15
mph with gusts of 20-25 mph amid minimum RH of 5-15%. The increase
of breezy winds will be along a surface thermal trough and below
slightly increased winds aloft due to a passing weak mid-level
shortwave trough. Active large fires near the periphery of monsoonal
moisture and thunderstorm chances in the central/eastern Great Basin
may produce deep pyroconvection as well.
..Nauslar.. 07/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...Synopsis...
An upper high will continue to slowly drift westward over the
Southwest and likely expand from off the southern California coast
through the southern Plains. Upper-level heights are likely to build
over the Intermountain West, but an upper-level trough will approach
the Pacific Northwest during the evening and overnight.
Additionally, a weak mid-level shortwave trough is likely to precede
the larger trough and move over northern California and Oregon into
Idaho from late afternoon through overnight.
An IsoDryT area was maintained from central Idaho into western
Montana. There is some concern regarding thunderstorm development
due to building heights aloft and widespread, thick smoke across the
region. Given these potential constraints, high-based showers with
little to no lightning are possible. However, high-resolution
forecast guidance still indicates the potential for isolated to
perhaps scattered thunderstorms. If the mid-level shortwave arrives
slightly earlier than currently forecast (i.e., around peak
heating), this could provide enough instability and forcing for
ascent aloft to increase thunderstorm chances and coverage.
Regardless, given the forecast PWAT values of 0.5-0.8" and expected
high LCLs with a dry sub cloud layer, most showers/storms will
produce little to no wetting rain.
Locally elevated fire weather conditions are likely across portions
of the Inland Northwest into northern California and the
western/northern Great Basin. The onshore pressure gradient across
the Northwest will strengthen with the approaching upper-level
trough and a deep, well-mixed boundary layer will develop farther
south across much of the Great Basin. This will result in
west-southwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
amid minimum RH of 5-20%.
..Nauslar.. 07/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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