RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 30 00:19:02 UTC 2025.
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 30 00:19:02 UTC 2025.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Valid 300100Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
...01z Update...
Earlier thoughts regarding severe thunderstorm potential tonight
remain.
Exit region of a strong 500mb speed max will shift into the western
Mid-Atlantic region late tonight as the midlevel jet translates
across the southern Appalachians into central NC by 30/12z. Weak
surface low, currently off the NC Coast, will be drawn inland and
low-level moisture/instability are expected to increase enough to
support robust updrafts. Large-scale forcing is expected to aid this
development, but convection should be focused ahead of the front
late tonight. Low probabilities for wind and tornadoes continue.
..Darrow.. 10/30/2025
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Valid 292000Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and
early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required.
Latest surface observations across the NC Tidewater region show
winds becoming more easterly with dewpoints rising as moisture is
slowly advected inland. This trend should continue through tonight
and help promote buoyancy late tonight/early Thursday morning as the
surface cyclone (currently over eastern TN) shifts northeast. See
the previous discussion for additional details.
..Moore.. 10/29/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025/
...Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight...
No changes to the previous outlook. A deep midlevel trough and
associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley
this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern
Appalachians overnight. Surface cyclogenesis in association with
this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector
inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight.
Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase
into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy
rooted near the surface. Hodograph length/curvature will favor some
potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or
tornado threat.
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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0445 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025
Valid 311200Z - 061200Z
...Synopsis...
Broad surface high pressure following a surface low and associated
precipitation exiting New England on Day 3/Friday, should settle
into the eastern U.S. over the weekend. Additionally, an upper-level
trough digging into the Southern Plains and Southeast through the
weekend but limited accompanying surface wind response should
mitigate a larger fire weather threat. Ridging across the western
U.S. still continue to support dry and warm conditions across much
of Intermountain West and Southwest desert regions. A more
progressive upper-level wave pattern and increasing westerly flow
across the Rockies could support a dry downslope wind regime,
potentially impacting the High Plains with stronger winds by mid to
late week.
...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday...
Precipitation associated with a surface low and attendant cold front
should be fairly widespread from the Ohio River Valley, Mid-Atlantic
and New England from the Day 2-3/Thursday-Friday period, mitigating
fire weather threat across the region for the weekend. However,
portions of Southeast and Gulf Coast evade a wider rain event.
Remaining patchy dry fuels within dry, post-frontal flow could
present an elevated fire risk for some locations but winds are
expected to remain fairly light, mitigating a larger fire weather
threat.
...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Wednesday...
A more progressive upper wave pattern develops by the middle of next
week. This could introduce a fire weather concern primarily across
the High Plains as enhanced mid-level flow and potential downslope
winds and drying develop. Predictability remains low enough in
timing of lee trough/cold front evolution and subsequent fire
weather impacts to preclude introduction of critical probabilities
at this time.
..Williams.. 10/29/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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