RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 30 21:03:02 UTC 2025.
MD 1527 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1527
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0401 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Areas affected...portions of central/southwest Oklahoma into
northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302101Z - 302230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms expected in the next 1-2 hours, with a
risk for at least isolated damaging winds/severe hail. Watch
issuance not anticipated but conditions will be monitored.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows a zone of rapidly developing
convection along a residual outflow boundary across
central/southwest Oklahoma. Additional convection is now deepening
across parts of northwest Texas. Rich low-level moisture (70s+ Tds)
and surface temperatures into the low 90s are contributing to a very
unstable environment south of the boundary, characterized by MLCAPE
values exceeding 3000 J/kg. The expectation is for scattered storms
to develop along this corridor in the next 1-2 hours, posing a risk
for at least isolated damaging wind gusts and severe hail. At this
time, watch issuance is not anticipated though convective trends
will be closely monitored should a watch be needed.
..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 35009602 34469706 33869797 33009923 32890003 33490052
34599918 35419803 35819668 35659595 35009602
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 1526
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Areas affected...portions of central/southern New Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302003Z - 302200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts possible this
afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Regional satellite/radar shows a few areas of robust,
terrain-driven convection, mainly across central/northern portions
of New Mexico with some merging of convection beginning to occur.
These storms initiated amid strong morning insolation and sufficient
boundary layer moisture for destabilization, characterized by dew
point temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s F. These
conditions have led to MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg and strong
low-level lapse rates, exceeding 8-9 C in most areas. Storms are
expected to continue merging and gradually move off the high terrain
and drift south with time. Isolated severe wind gusts will be
possible with this activity through the remainder of the afternoon
into the early evening.
..Karstens/Hart.. 06/30/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33160872 33580892 34060861 34920790 35670636 35630556
34570533 33000560 32580595 32390702 32730821 33160872
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 301630Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts
of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern
Oregon and northern California today.
...Southern OK/Northwest TX...
Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary
extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the
boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the
mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon,
propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft
are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization.
However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates
will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail
will also be possible in the strongest updrafts.
...PA/NY...
A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of
NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000
J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which
will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit
the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong
to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible.
Refer to MCD #1522 for further details.
...NM/Southeast AZ...
Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the
mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead
to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind
gusts in some of this activity.
...Upper MI/WI...
A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the
Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and
increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered
late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI.
Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms.
...Northern CA/Southern OR...
Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast,
southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across
parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with
weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to
scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse
rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds.
..Hart/Karstens.. 06/30/2025
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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 302000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND PARTS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
southern Plains into the Midwest and the Mid-Atlantic, and in parts
of the Desert Southwest, and also in adjacent parts of southern
Oregon and northern California today.
...20Z Update...
Forecast scenario remains unchanged. See active Mesoscale
Discussions and the prior Outlook discussion below.
..Guyer.. 06/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/
...Southern OK/Northwest TX...
Morning visible satellite imagery confirms an outflow boundary
extending across central OK. Strong heating to the south of the
boundary will lead to a very unstable air mass with dewpoints in the
mid 70s and MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the boundary by mid-afternoon,
propagating southward into north TX during the evening. Winds aloft
are rather weak in this area, suggesting limited storm organization.
However, the degree of instability and steep low-level lapse rates
will promote a risk of damaging wind in the stronger cells. Hail
will also be possible in the strongest updrafts.
...PA/NY...
A warm and humid air mass is present once again across parts of
NY/PA, where daytime heating will lead to MLCAPE values of 1500-2000
J/kg. Forecast soundings suggest ample mid-level moisture which
will be favorable for considerable coverage of storms, but may limit
the overall severe downdraft potential. Nevertheless, a few strong
to severe cells capable of locally damaging wind gusts are possible.
Refer to MCD #1522 for further details.
...NM/Southeast AZ...
Upper 40s and 50s dewpoints have become established across the
mountains of southern NM into southeast AZ. Full heating will lead
to deep mixing and inverted-v profiles over the region. Scattered
afternoon thunderstorms will likely result in gusty/damaging wind
gusts in some of this activity.
...Upper MI/WI...
A progressive shortwave trough over northern MN will track into the
Great Lakes region today, with cooling mid-level temperatures and
increasing large scale forcing. This will lead to scattered
late-afternoon thunderstorms over parts of WI and the Upper MI.
Locally gusty winds and hail are possible in these storms.
...Northern CA/Southern OR...
Ahead of the weak upper trough immediately west of the CA coast,
southerly flow will aid in increasing mid-level moisture across
parts of northern CA and southern OR. Ample heating coupled with
weak large-scale and orographic ascent will aid in isolated to
scattered high-based thunderstorm development. Very steep lapse
rates will pose a risk of gusty/damaging winds.
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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. An
isolated severe storm may also occur over parts of the central High
Plains.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the Northeast as an upper ridge
persists over the central U.S. and a mid-level low meanders over CA
tomorrow (Tuesday). The East Coast mid-level trough will encourage
the eastward advancement of a cold front, which will provide enough
lift for scattered to widespread thunderstorm development across the
Carolinas into the Northeast. Rich low-level moisture preceding the
front will encourage enough buoyancy, amid marginal but adequate
vertical wind shear, to support strong thunderstorms, some of which
could be severe. A couple of strong to severe storms are possible
along the periphery of the upper ridge over parts of the northern
Rockies into the central High Plains.
...Northeast into the Southeast...
As the surface cold front advances eastward across the eastern U.S.,
surface temperatures will warm into the 80s F to near 90 F, amid 70+
F dewpoints from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic, boosting SBCAPE
into the 2000-3500 J/kg range by afternoon peak heating. Relatively
poor mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE to tall/thin profiles.
However, the magnitude of buoyancy, combined with widespread
thunderstorm coverage over a large area, will foster ample
opportunity for at least isolated damaging gusts with wet
downbursts, from the Southeast to New England. A more concentrated
area of damaging gust potential exists over parts of the
Mid_Atlantic, where a Category 2/Slight Risk remains in place. Here,
line segments are expected to organize amid a region of maximum
buoyancy and 30 kts of effective bulk shear, driven by stronger
west-southwesterly mid-level flow grazing the area.
...Portions of the Northern Rockies...
Mid-level monsoonal moisture is forecast to crest the upper ridge
amid modest 500 mb west-southwesterly flow over parts of the
Northern Rockies, where guidance consensus shows PWATs reaching 0.8
inches in spots. High-based thunderstorms will develop by afternoon
peak heating, atop a well-mixed boundary layer extending to 500 mb
via inverted-v thermodynamic profiles. The aforementioned mid-level
moisture, combined with steep tropospheric lapse rates, will support
over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. This buoyancy may support robust enough
updrafts and subsequent storm cores in an environment where ample
evaporative cooling may take place to support isolated severe gusts.
...Central High Plains...
Low-level upslope flow, along with strong diurnal heating, and the
passage of a small impulse embedded in the upper ridge, will all
serve as mechanisms for convective initiation tomorrow afternoon.
Though storms should be isolated, they will develop amid 8 C/km low
and mid-level lapse rates that will boost MLCAPE into the 1500-2500
J/kg range. Modest directional vertical wind shear will support
somewhat curved/elongated hodographs and around 35 kts of effective
bulk shear. As such, a few multicells/transient supercells may
develop and produce isolated severe wind/hail.
..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025
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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
At least scattered storms are possible across a large portion of the
continental U.S. on Wednesday. A couple of severe gusts may
accompany the stronger storms over portions of the Northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will meander across the Northeast while upper
ridging persists over the central CONUS and a mid-level trough
advances over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Seasonal moisture
and associated diurnal heating will encourage at least scattered
development across most of the CONUS during the afternoon and
evening hours. However, a couple of thunderstorms embedded in the
stronger mid-level flow over the Northern Rockies could become
strong. Given adequate shear and instability in this region, a few
of the stronger storms could become severe.
...Portions of the Northern Rockies...
The periphery of relatively greater mid-level moisture is poised to
traverse the western extent of the upper ridge on Wednesday.
Stronger west-southwesterly mid-level flow will graze the Northern
Rockies due to the approach of the upper trough to the west. Robust
boundary layer heating in this region will boost low-level lapse
rates to 9 C/km over several locales, as 8.5 C/km mid-level lapse
rates overspreads the well-mixed boundary layer. MLCAPE may exceed
1000 J/kg over many areas, and thunderstorms accessing this buoyancy
will be embedded in stronger mid-level flow and 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear. As such, stronger multicells may produce a mix
of wet and dry downbursts, perhaps inducing a couple of severe
gusts.
..Squitieri.. 06/30/2025
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 301700Z - 011200Z
...Northern California and Southwestern Oregon...
An approaching mid-level trough, steep low-level lapse rates and
increasing mid-level moisture and instability will aid a mix of
wet/dry thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of
northern California, with showers and thunderstorms propagating into
southern Oregon along and east of the Cascades through this evening.
Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights persist where new ignitions are
possible atop dry fuels.
...Great Basin...
The mid-level trough entering California and associated stronger
southerly mid-level flow will overspread the Great Basin today. A
deep, well-mixed boundary layer will facilitate gusty surface winds
from the south of up to 25 mph across central Nevada, with sustained
winds of around 15 mph. The enhanced winds along with low relative
humidity will promote an elevated fire weather threat amid receptive
fuels.
..Williams.. 06/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/
...Synopsis...
Across the US, sub-tropical ridging will build over the Plains,
keeping stronger flow aloft displaced to the north while an upper
low will overspread portions of the West Coast. Ahead of the low,
breezy southerly winds will advect monsoon moisture northward into
parts of CA and OR. Dry thunderstorms and dry/breezy conditions
appear likely to support elevated fire-weather potential across the
Northwest and Great Basin today.
...Northwest...
Weak ascent from an approaching upper trough will allow for isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms across northern CA and southern OR
through tonight. Strong heating and dry sub-cloud layers with steep
lapse rates below 500mb will support a mixed wet/dry thunderstorm
environment capable of occasional dry lightning strikes.
Additionally, erratic outflow winds are likely near storms. The
increased potential for dry lightning atop receptive fuels, warrants
continuation of IsodryT probabilities where fire starts are
possible.
...Great Basin...
Beneath the upper ridge, very hot surface temperatures are expected
over parts of NV and western UT. Southerly surface winds may gust to
15-20 mph through the afternoon, concurrent with widespread RH
values below 15%. The presence of breezy low-level winds and the
hot/dry conditions will overlap with a progressively drier and
receptive fuels across NV. This could support a few hours of
elevated fire-weather potential through this evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...Northern California into Oregon...
Upper-level low and favorable convective environment will support a
mix of dry/wet thunderstorms mainly across the higher terrain of
northern California into much of southern and central Oregon.
Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights were adjusted slightly
southward along the California Coastal Range and northern Sierra
Nevada.
...Great Basin...
The mid-level trough and associated elevated mid-level flow will
promote elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions across
much of central and eastern Nevada. South winds of 15-20 mph
combined with relative humidity at or below 15 percent will support
higher wildfire spread potential within dry fuels.
...Central Utah into Northwestern Arizona...
Isolated dry thunderstorm threat was expanded into northwestern
Arizona for Tuesday. Deeper monsoon moisture will remain south of
the Mogollon Rim Tuesday with a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms
expected in the afternoon. Fuels remain dry with potential dry
lightning ignitions away from heavier precipitation cores.
..Williams.. 06/30/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025/
...Synopsis...
Mid-level flow across the CONUS should continue to amplify as the
sub-tropical ridge over the West gradually shifts eastward. The
upper low across the West Coast will intensify, spreading enhanced
flow aloft and monsoon moisture over much of the West. The increased
moisture will support dry thunderstorms over the Northwest and UT,
while warm and breezy conditions will favor elevated fire-weather
conditions over the Great Basin.
...Central Great Basin...
As the upper low over the West intensifies, enhanced mid-level flow
will overspread parts of the Great Basin and Southwest. On the
periphery of the building upper ridge, very warm and dry conditions
are likely. The stronger southerly mid-level flow over top the
dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support gusty southerly winds
across central/southern NV Tuesday. Widespread gusts of 15-25 mph
are expected, with RH values below 15%. As area fuels continuing to
dry, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are
likely.
...Dry Thunderstorms...
A second day of thunderstorms is expected from northern CA into
southern OR and western ID Tuesday. Weak ascent from the upper low,
coupled with northward moving monsoon moisture will support
scattered storms through much of the day. Increased storm motions
and, steep low-level lapse rates will still favor relatively poor
precipitation efficiency. This suggests dry lighting is again
possible across the northern Coastal ranges of CA, east of the
Cascades to the OR/ID border.
Across parts of UT, the initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture
from the upper-level trough into the Intermountain West will support
isolated thunderstorms across the central mountains Tuesday. With
PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches and modest storm speeds, a mixed mode
of wet and dry storms is expected over the higher terrain. Very
receptive fuels (ERCs > 90th percentile), suggest dry lightning
ignitions are possible outside the heavier precip core.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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