RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center
WW 636 SEVERE TSTM IL KY MO TN 182230Z - 190400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 636
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
430 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Southeast Missouri
Northwest Tennessee
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 430 PM until
1000 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of intense thunderstorms will likely track
southeastward across the watch area this evening. Large hail and
perhaps a tornado will be possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west of Poplar
Bluff MO to 65 miles southeast of Paducah KY. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
29030.
...Hart
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WW 0636 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW POF
TO 15 NNW CGI.
..MOORE..11/18/25
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-127-153-190040-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER MASSAC PULASKI
KYC007-035-039-075-083-105-145-157-190040-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CALLOWAY CARLISLE
FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN
MCCRACKEN MARSHALL
MOC023-069-133-143-155-201-207-190040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER DUNKLIN MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PEMISCOT SCOTT
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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 19 02:30:16 UTC 2025.
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TN...SOUTHWEST KY...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms remain possible this
evening across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio
Valley.
...Mid MS to lower OH Valleys...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward toward
the Lower Great Lakes region this evening. A rather strong low-level
jet associated with this system will maintain elevated convection
for much of the evening across parts of eastern KY/TN. MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and moderate effective shear will continue to support
a few strong elevated storms with a threat of isolated hail.
Farther southwest, moderate surface-based buoyancy remains in place
from western KY/TN into AR and far southeast MO/southern IL, along
and ahead of a cold front. While ascent associated with the
departing shortwave trough will become increasingly displaced to the
north and east, strong deep-layer shear will support supercell
potential with ongoing convection through the evening, as storms
move east-southeastward. Any sustained supercells could pose at
least an isolated threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado. Late this evening, increasing CINH should result
in a general weakening trend, though a strong storm or two cannot be
ruled out into the early overnight hours.
...Southwest...
Scattered storms will continue this evening across parts of AZ into
southeast CA/NV, in association with a mid/upper-level low. Buoyancy
will remain modest at best, but sufficient deep-layer shear could
support briefly strong storms through the evening.
..Dean.. 11/19/2025
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