ABNT20 KNHC 292323
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Melissa, located near the southeastern Bahamas.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake]]>

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Melissa (AT3/AL132025)
  ...MELISSA PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IN THE BAHAMAS... As of 8:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 the center of Melissa was located near 23.5, -74.8 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Melissa

• Hurricane Melissa Public Advisory Number 34a
  Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 676 WTNT33 KNHC 292358 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 34A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...MELISSA PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IN THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 74.8W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southeastern and Central Bahamas * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in the Bahamas should remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be completed before anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 74.8 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). An accelerating northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to continue to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas this evening, and is forecast to pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some restrengthening is forecast tonight into tomorrow with weakening beginning thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A private weather station at Pitts Town on Crooked Island recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches) based on dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in the southeastern and central Bahamas and should continue through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing in the Turks and Caicos Islands and should continue through tonight. Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on Thursday. RAINFALL: Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches are expected through Thursday morning, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or Thursday night. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches are through this evening, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For eastern Cuba, the rainfall has subsided. However, additional scattered showers are expected through this evening, with additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. With storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, possibly up to 25 inches over mountainous terrain, the ongoing life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides will likely persist into the evening. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas tonight, and minor coastal flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands for the remainder of the day, will affect the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands for the next few days, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake]]>
• Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 34
  Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 29 2025 949 WTNT23 KNHC 292042 TCMAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 2100 UTC WED OCT 29 2025 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.8W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 50SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 90SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS.... 90NE 150SE 90SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.8W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 75.3W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT... 85NE 100SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT...160NE 170SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 55SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT... 90NE 105SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 130SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 65SE 40SW 20NW. 50 KT... 95NE 120SE 80SW 50NW. 34 KT...160NE 200SE 170SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 95NE 120SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...200NE 230SE 220SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...110NE 120SE 80SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 260SE 230SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...190NE 270SE 210SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 270SE 220SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 170SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 34
  Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 000 WTNT43 KNHC 292047 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Melissa showing some some signs of convective recovery after weakening a little more from the land interaction with Cuba. After looking quite ragged after emerging off Cuba, convection is redeveloping on its upshear flank, and showing some signs of wrapping around the center again. Aircraft fixes from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission also show that the hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the northeast. Peak 700 mb flight level winds were 87 kt both to the east and northeast of the center, and the minimum central pressure was unchanged from this morning, at around 974 mb. The mission also indicated a much larger eyewall with an eye diameter of 40 n mi. Using a standard 0.9 reduction from the 700 mb wind yields a maximum sustained wind of 80 kt this advisory, which is also in between the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. Aircraft and scatterometer data were used to expand some of the wind radii associated with Melissa this afternoon. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening. The hurricane continues to gradually accelerate this afternoon, with the motion currently estimated at 035/14 kt. Not much has changed with the track reasoning this afternoon, as Melissa is beginning to be captured in the flow between an amplified trough swinging into the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge centered to the east of the tropical cyclone. This motion will bring Melissa across the southeastern and central Bahamas though the evening. The track models continue to remain clustered on the center of Melissa passing just northwest of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night, though the enlarging wind radii will likely cause hurricane conditions to be experienced near or on the island. The track guidance this cycle remains in fairly good agreement, and only subtle changes to the track forecast were made this cycle, sticking close to a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is also worth noting that the forecast track does also take Melissa close to the southeastern tip of Newfoundland, but as an post-tropical extratropical cyclone. While Melissa has weakened substantially in the past 24 h due to land interaction from the high terrain of Jamaica and Cuba, the global and hurricane-regional models continue to suggest it has a short-term window to re-intensify some while it remains over sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. While vertical wind shear is starting to increase over the hurricane, it is in the same direction as the current accelerating motion, and the current satellite structure suggests that convection is not having any issues wrapping around the circulation. In addition, the accelerating forward motion might have the net effect of increasing the maximum winds speeds on the southeastern flank of Melissa. Finally, the hurricane finds itself positioned in the right entrance region of a jet streak located over the northeastern United States, which may aid in upper-level divergence over the system before the shear becomes prohibitively strong. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast does show some modest intensification over the next 24 h, and it is worth nothing this forecast is a little lower than some of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-B/HWRF/HMON) that suggest it could re-intensify into a major hurricane. Once the hurricane approaches the north wall of the gulf stream in 48 h, extratropical transition will likely be well underway, with most models suggesting it completing this process between 48 to 60 h. The NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the overall guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through this evening. Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to venture out. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through this evening. 2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are expected in Bermuda beginning late Thursday and continuing through Thursday night. 3. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.9N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin]]>
• Hurricane Melissa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
  Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 29 2025 000 FONT13 KNHC 292044 PWSAT3 HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025 2100 UTC WED OCT 29 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) X(52) X(52) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) X(61) X(61) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 83(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANDROS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAN SALVADOR 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) SAN SALVADOR 64 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) MAYAGUANA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYAGUANA 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GRAND TURK 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN]]>
• Hurricane Melissa Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Oct 2025 23:59:00 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Oct 2025 21:21:58 GMT ]]>