ABNT20 KNHC 121726
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Aug 12 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Erin, located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Northwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada, is producing disorganized shower 
and thunderstorm activity to the west of its center.  Some limited 
tropical or subtropical development is possible through early 
Wednesday as the low meanders near the relatively warm waters of the 
Gulf Stream.  The system is expected to move northward over cooler 
waters later on Wednesday, ending its chances for tropical 
development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

North-Central Gulf:
A surface trough near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and 
Alabama is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  While development of this system is not anticipated 
before it moves inland later today or tonight, locally heavy 
rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the 
northern Gulf coast over the next day or so.  For more information 
on the rainfall hazards related to this system, please see products 
issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg]]>

Tropical Storm Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Storm Erin (AT5/AL052025)
  ...ERIN STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Aug 12 the center of Erin was located near 17.0, -38.3 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Erin

• Tropical Storm Erin Public Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025 452 WTNT35 KNHC 122032 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Erin Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025 ...ERIN STILL MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 38.3W ABOUT 950 MI...1525 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1635 MI...2630 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Erin. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erin was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 38.3 West. Erin is moving toward the west near 22 mph (35 km/h). A slightly slower westward motion is expected tonight through Thursday, with a west-northwestward motion beginning Thursday night and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, but gradual strengthening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday. Erin will likely become a hurricane by late Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg]]>
• Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Advisory Number 6
  Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 080 WTNT25 KNHC 122032 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 38.3W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 4 M SEAS.... 75NE 15SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 38.3W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 37.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.6N 40.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 16.4N 43.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.6N 46.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.2N 49.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.9N 52.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.6N 56.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 22.2N 65.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 38.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG]]>
• Tropical Storm Erin Forecast Discussion Number 6
  Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025 050 WTNT45 KNHC 122033 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 500 PM AST Tue Aug 12 2025 Not much has changed with Erin's structure since this morning. A little bit of convection has formed over the low-level center, but overall the shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited. Due to the cyclone's fast motion, it is assumed that the maximum winds have not decreased, so the initial intensity is held at 40 kt. A quick south-of-due-west motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, with strong low- to mid-level ridging located to the north over the central and eastern Atlantic. Global models indicate that ridge is likely to weaken in a few days, which should cause Erin to begin moving west-northwestward in about 60 hours, with that motion continuing through day 5 (Sunday). In contrast to this morning, there were no major shifts in the latest track model simulations. The new NHC forecast has been placed along the southern part of the guidance envelope, lying closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google Deep Mind (GDM) models. This results in the new NHC track forecast having no appreciable difference from the morning forecast, with no additional shifting toward the northern Leeward Islands. Keep in mind that NHC track forecasts have an average error of 120-180 n mi (150-215 statute miles) at days 4 and 5, and future adjustments in the forecast are still possible. It may still take Erin a little bit of time to produce more significant deep convection while it continues to move over marginally warm sea surface temperatures and through an atmosphere of only modest instability and moisture. Sea surface temperatures and instability begin to increase after about 24 hours, which should allow Erin to produce more organized convection. Given that the cyclone already has a well-defined low-level structure, this could result in significant intensification toward the latter part of the forecast period, especially since the global models show an upper-level anticyclone building over the storm. The NHC intensity forecast is near the lower end of the guidance during the first few days of the forecast, but then falls in line closer to the consensus aids in 3-5 days. In this scenario, Erin would still become a major hurricane in about 4 or 5 days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Erin could move close enough to the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend to produce some impacts on those islands. However, the magnitude of those impacts is still not known, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. There is even greater uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 17.0N 38.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.6N 40.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.4N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 16.6N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.2N 49.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 17.9N 52.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.6N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 20.0N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 22.2N 65.7W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg]]>
• Tropical Storm Erin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
  Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 554 FONT15 KNHC 122032 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052025 2100 UTC TUE AUG 12 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 15(26) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 11(33) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 10(27) ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 7(33) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG]]>
• Tropical Storm Erin Graphics
  
  5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 20:35:05 GMT
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 12 Aug 2025 21:21:36 GMT ]]>