ABNT20 KNHC 130526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristobal, located over the Atlantic well to the west of the 
Azores.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
midway between the Lesser Antilles and the west coast of Africa 
have become a little better organized since yesterday.  
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for further 
development during the next day or so, and a tropical depression 
will likely form while the system moves westward to west- 
northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Beginning on 
Friday, upper-level winds are likely to become too strong for 
development as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde 
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for 
some development, and a tropical depression could form late this 
week or this weekend while the wave moves westward or west- 
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under WMO 
header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal are issued under 
WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Beven]]>

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032026)
  ...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY... As of 9:00 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 the center of Cristobal was located near 38.6, -38.2 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Cristobal

• Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 000 WTNT33 KNHC 130846 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...CRISTOBAL BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 38.2W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 38.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Cristobal is forecast to dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven]]>
• Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 4
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 000 WTNT23 KNHC 130846 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1014 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 38.2W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 38.8W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 40.1N 36.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 38.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN]]>
• Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 4
  Issued at 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 619 WTNT43 KNHC 130847 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032026 900 AM GMT Thu Aug 13 2026 Recent OSCAT data showed that Cristobal has weaken to a tropical depression with max winds around 30 kt. The cyclone continues to have a lack of deep convection based on satellite images. The most current TAFB intensity estimates with a Final T number of 1.5 and maximum winds of 30 kt. As a result, the initial intensity has been brought down to 30 kt for this advisory. Based on the increasingly harsh environmental conditions that the storm is entering as well as the latest model guidance, Cristobal is expected to continue weakening, and it is unlikely that convection will make a comeback. Thus, the NHC forecast now calls for Cristobal to become a remnant low within the next 12 h, with dissipation following soon after. The current motion estimate is east-northeastward, or 075/14 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn a bit more northeastward over the next 12 h, and barely any changes have been made to the previous NHC track prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 38.6N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 40.1N 36.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Beven]]>
• Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
  Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 660 FONT13 KNHC 130847 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032026 0900 UTC THU AUG 13 2026 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KATZ/BEVEN]]>
• Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
  
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2026 09:22:44 GMT ]]>