000
FXUS61 KBTV 252316
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
716 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue across the region through Friday
night, resulting in clear skies, light winds, and comfortable
temperatures. Another chilly night is anticipated tonight with
lows mid teens to upper 20s, followed by temperatures warming
into the 50s to near 60 degrees on Friday. The next chance of
showers arrives Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 708 PM EDT Thursday...No significant adjustments were
necessary with the forecast verifying well. Clear skies and
light winds will be favorable for radiational cooling tonight
with temperatures likely dropping quickly after sunset and hard
freezes for the morning.

Previous Discussion...Sfc analysis places 1030mb high pres over
the eastern Great Lakes with clear skies and light winds
expected tonight. Have basically copied last nights lows for
tonight into the fcst with values ranging from mid teens to
mid/upper 20s, coldest NEK/SLK and warmest Lake Champlain. For
Friday little change is anticipated with clear skies and light
trrn driven winds. Did utilize the 10th percentile dwpts from
the NBM as a small target of opportunity. This results in min
aftn rh values in the 12% to 22% range with driest conditions
acrs portions of the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Given the
very dry air mass, feel temps wl overachieve, even after a cool
start. Highs generally in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Another
quiet and cool night is anticipated on Friday night, but with
southerly winds and warming 925mb thermal profiles lows range
from mid 20s NEK to mid/upper 30s wider valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Through the weekend upper level ridging
and surface high pressure will largely dominate, but an
approaching/weakening warm front and a weak embedded shortwave
riding over the ridge will present the chance for some showers, the
best being Saturday evening/night. Saturday will be mainly dry for
most of the daylight hours before the aforementioned warm front
approaches the region from the southwest late in the afternoon into
the evening. With a very dry airmass in place, rising PWATs to
around 1" Saturday night will initially go towards moistening the
low/mid levels of the atmosphere, with light showers developing for
a short period during the overnight hours. As the front decays over
the region early Sunday, showers will diminish again for much of of
the day, but weak shortwave energy rounding the ridge will present
additional chances for showers and perhaps some embedded thunder
during the late afternoon into early overnight hours, mainly across
northern zones. By no means is either day a washout, you just might
be dodging some showers here and there.

Overall temps will be on the mild side of normal with highs both
days in the 60s to around 70, and lows in the 40s east to 50s west
Saturday night, and widespread 50s Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 256 PM EDT Thursday...Heading into next week the pattern
remains fairly active but non- impactful with several frontal
passages likely, bracketed by upper level ridging. Monday will be
the pick of the weak with an upper ridge firmly overhead and
temperatures warming into the upper 60s to low 70s. The first and
weaker of 2 fronts arrives Monday night into Tuesday with showers
likely Tuesday and maybe some rumbles of thunder. Dry conditions
develop again for Tuesday night through midday Wednesday, with a
stronger cold front passage on track for late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This front has the best potential for thunderstorm
development right now based on progged CAPE up to 1000J/kg and
colder 500mb temps near -20c rolling in behind the boundary. Nothing
is jumping out as severe, but a few stronger cells could be
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...Strong high pressure over the North
Country will help create ideal flying conditions through the
forecast period. Winds will follow tertiary flow patterns with
light easterly drainage flows for BTV/RUT and calm conditions
elsewhere overnight. A weak lake breeze is likely after 13Z so
expect easterlies at PBG with light westerly winds for BTV.
Upslope flow pattern after 13Z will drive light westerly for
RUT. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.


Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low Temperatures:

April 26:
KMPV: 22/1967
KPBG: 23/1972

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 29:
KBTV: 55/2013
KPBG: 57/1974

April 30:
KPBG: 54/2004

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Taber
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Boyd/Taber
CLIMATE...WFO BTV