262
FXUS61 KBTV 010606
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
206 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Areas of fog and dense fog have formed behind yesterday`s front
and will be a hazard this morning for travelers this morning.
Weaker troughs will bring additional chances of showers later
this week, but overall conditions will be calmer with mild
temperatures.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 156 AM EDT Wednesday...Added patchy fog area-wide with
some localized ares being dense. Dense fog should be expected
away from the lake shore along elevations above 200-400 ft.
Otherwise, showers are exiting the North Country with light
drizzle occurring across southern Vermont. Drizzle in southern
Vermont will give way to fog for the morning commute.
Previous Discussion...Showers have ended across much of the
region, with just a little rain still lingering over Rutland and
Windsor Counties. Low clouds continue to blanket the area
behind the frontal boundary and associated showers as low- level
moisture gets trapped under the inversion. Have started seeing
some reports of patchy fog, including here at BTV where
visibility is down to 4 miles. Have added patchy fog to the
forecast for tonight, keeping coverage somewhat limited for now
as there are still some locations with slightly stronger winds.
Otherwise, the forecast is in good shape and no other changes
were needed with this update.
Previous discussion...Clearing to the west has increased
instability ahead of the main front, which is currently moving
into western New York. Although there is some mid level
instability, the greatest chances are further south over the
Hudson Valley, so although a few thunderstorms may pop up this
evening, we are not expecting a line of heavier thunderstorms
like we saw this morning and chances of hail within these storms
have decreased. Showers and thunderstorms will eventually
transition over to more widespread rain this evening as the main
front moves through.
Precipitation chances diminish behind the front tonight and
Wednesday, but kept some chances of showers with relatively mild
temperatures and upslope flow continuing. Temperatures will range
from the 40s overnight into the upper 50s/low-mid 60s for Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...A weak shortwave drops down into the
region from Canada on Wednesday night into Thursday, leading to
some showers, particularly in northern areas. QPF values have
increased slightly from the previous forecast, although overall
less than 0.25" is still expected, mainly close to the Canadian
border. There is still some uncertainty between models on how
far southward this shortwave will dip, so adjusted QPFs downward
slightly to account for that. Should the front dip further
southward, QPF could be a little higher but still mostly under
0.5". Showers will move out Thursday afternoon and there should
at least be a little clearing. 925 mb temperatures generally
will be between 8-12 Celsius and as the showers move out, the
boundary layer should eventually mix that high. This would
support highs in the 60s, possibly reaching the low 70s further
south. There should be a decent north to south temperature
gradient as well as there will be lower 925 mb temperatures and
more showers/clouds to the north.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 331 PM EDT Tuesday...Brief ridging builds in on Friday, leading
to dry weather and a few breaks in the clouds. The ridge looks to
break down on Saturday as an occluded front makes its way into the
region and brings some rain through Sunday morning. Overall,
the front should be falling apart as it moves through and the
QPF looks quite unimpressive, with less than a third of ensemble
members even bringing a quarter inch of rain to any part of the
region. A few members are suggesting that a low will develop
along the front and enhance the rainfall but those solutions
currently look to be the outliers. The trailing cold front looks
to move through around Monday and it may bring a few more
showers. Despite several fronts moving through during the time
period, temperatures look to be relatively consistent. Highs
should generally be in the 60s to around 70 while lows should
generally be in the 40s and 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...Widespread IFR/VLIFR conditions due to
low stratus will continue 12-16Z with MPV/SLK lingering
longest. VIS will be more variable due to fog ranging 1/2sm-4sm
in general with 6+sm most likely at PBG. Worst VIS will be
08-13Z then improving quickly 13-15Z. Then MVFR CIGs likely
through 22Z before a chance of VFR through about 05Z. Another
weak trough is moving in out of southern Canada and will bring
more shower chances 22Z today to 12Z Thursday mainly from the
Champlain Valley northeastward.
Outlook...
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Boyd
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Hastings/NWS ALY
SHORT TERM...NWS ALY
LONG TERM...NWS ALY
AVIATION...Boyd
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